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Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Drewry believes this trade will have little or no impact on the demand for dry bulk shipping.
The Indian government plans to sharply lift the domestic production capacity of crude steel which could lead to even higher coking coal imports as it is a key raw material for steel production. The imports of coking coal have been rising over the past few years. While Australia is the predominant supplier of coking coal to India, accounting for around 80% of country’s imports of the commodity, the US and Canada supply the balance with Russia’s share at a negligible 1-2% annually. In 2020, the latter exported 1.2 million tonnes of coking coal to India.
As Indian steel mills are highly reliant on Australian coking coal, any disruption in the supply of the commodity in Australia could affect India’s steel production. The recent deal with Russia could be seen as an attempt by Indian coking coal traders to diversify their import portfolio and could eat into the share of Australian coal, leaving the shares of the US and Canada untouched.
Meanwhile, the Russian government plans to lift the country’s coal production to 668 million tonnes by 2035 from around 400 million tonnes in 2020 and thereby increase its presence in the Asian market. The country targets to lift its coal exports to 390 million tonnes from around 211 million tonnes in 2020, indicating that exports will rise by around 12 million tonnes per annum. In line with the country’s vison, some Russian companies such as Kolmar and Elga intend to ramp up their coal production volumes and port capacities.
Since Russia-India and Australia-India are predominantly Panamax routes, the impact of the recent deal on the demand for Panamax vessels will depend on the port that will supply coking coal to India. Russia has been exporting coal through Murmansk, Vanino, Vostochny and Ust-Luga, of which Vanino and Vostochny are almost equidistant from India, as is Australia, but Murmansk-India (and also Ust-Luga-India) is almost double the distance between India and Australia. As a result, for a given cargo volume, Murmansk-India and Ust-Luga-India should deploy twice the number of vessels than Australia-India, but for Vanino-India or Vostochny-India there will hardly be any addition in the overall vessel demand.
To estimate the influence of the Russia-India deal on vessel demand we assume that all four Russian ports will supply coal to India in equal quantities. At the speed of 11 knots, 40 million tonnes of coking coal trade on Russia-India would employ 94 odd Panamax vessels whereas the same cargo volume on Australia-India would need 66 Panamaxes, implying an increase of 28 Panamax vessels annually.
However, we believe the entire agreement between Russia and India for 40 million tonnes of annual coking coal trade will be difficult to materialise. The share of coking coal in Russia’s overall coal exports has been limited to 12-14% over the past five years. This means that even if the country’s coal exports will rise by 12 million tonnes per annum, coking coal exports could rise by just 1-2 million tonnes annually.
Moreover, even if the country is able to meet the agreed quantity, it seems that Russia would supply a major proportion of the coking coal through port Vanino as the country’s major coal companies are increasing their coal handling capacity at this port. While Kolmar group plans to lift the annual coal handling capacity of the VaninoTransUgol terminal by 12 million tonnes by 2023, Albert Avdolyan plans to construct a coal terminal at Vanino with annual handling capacity of 30 million tonnes. As mentioned above vessel demand on Vanino-India will be no different from that on Australia-India and any shift of cargo away from Australia-India and towards Vanino-India will have little impact on dry bulk shipping demand.
Source: Drewry
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Friday, 15 January 21
OVER US$50 BILLION IN GAS POWER PROJECTS AND LNG IMPORT FACILITIES AT RISK OF CANCELLATION IN BANGLADESH, PAKISTAN AND VIETNAM - IEEFA
Pakistan and Bangladesh have already cancelled tenders for LNG imports
Emerging markets such as Vietnam, Pakistan and Bangladesh tha ...
Friday, 15 January 21
VIETNAM'S EXTRAORDINARY ROOFTOP SOLAR SUCCESS DEALS ANOTHER BLOW TO THE REMAINING COAL PIPELINE - IEEFA
9.3 gigawatts peak of solar capacity, equal to 6 coal power plants, installed in less than a year
Vietnam’s solar power indust ...
Friday, 15 January 21
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Thursday, 14 January 21
KOREA MIDLAND POWER INVITED BIDS FOR AUSTRALIAN COAL FOR THREE YEARS SUPPLY
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd, issued an International tender for total 1,560,000 MT of Min.5,700 kcal/kg NCV coal of Australian Origin ...
Wednesday, 13 January 21
CHINA THERMAL GENCO PROFITS FACE PRESSURE AMID POWER SHORTAGES - FITHCH WIRE
High coal and gas prices will put near-term pressure on margins for thermal power generators in China, says Fitch Ratings. However, the power short ...
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
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