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Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Drewry believes this trade will have little or no impact on the demand for dry bulk shipping.
The Indian government plans to sharply lift the domestic production capacity of crude steel which could lead to even higher coking coal imports as it is a key raw material for steel production. The imports of coking coal have been rising over the past few years. While Australia is the predominant supplier of coking coal to India, accounting for around 80% of country’s imports of the commodity, the US and Canada supply the balance with Russia’s share at a negligible 1-2% annually. In 2020, the latter exported 1.2 million tonnes of coking coal to India.
As Indian steel mills are highly reliant on Australian coking coal, any disruption in the supply of the commodity in Australia could affect India’s steel production. The recent deal with Russia could be seen as an attempt by Indian coking coal traders to diversify their import portfolio and could eat into the share of Australian coal, leaving the shares of the US and Canada untouched.
Meanwhile, the Russian government plans to lift the country’s coal production to 668 million tonnes by 2035 from around 400 million tonnes in 2020 and thereby increase its presence in the Asian market. The country targets to lift its coal exports to 390 million tonnes from around 211 million tonnes in 2020, indicating that exports will rise by around 12 million tonnes per annum. In line with the country’s vison, some Russian companies such as Kolmar and Elga intend to ramp up their coal production volumes and port capacities.
Since Russia-India and Australia-India are predominantly Panamax routes, the impact of the recent deal on the demand for Panamax vessels will depend on the port that will supply coking coal to India. Russia has been exporting coal through Murmansk, Vanino, Vostochny and Ust-Luga, of which Vanino and Vostochny are almost equidistant from India, as is Australia, but Murmansk-India (and also Ust-Luga-India) is almost double the distance between India and Australia. As a result, for a given cargo volume, Murmansk-India and Ust-Luga-India should deploy twice the number of vessels than Australia-India, but for Vanino-India or Vostochny-India there will hardly be any addition in the overall vessel demand.
To estimate the influence of the Russia-India deal on vessel demand we assume that all four Russian ports will supply coal to India in equal quantities. At the speed of 11 knots, 40 million tonnes of coking coal trade on Russia-India would employ 94 odd Panamax vessels whereas the same cargo volume on Australia-India would need 66 Panamaxes, implying an increase of 28 Panamax vessels annually.
However, we believe the entire agreement between Russia and India for 40 million tonnes of annual coking coal trade will be difficult to materialise. The share of coking coal in Russia’s overall coal exports has been limited to 12-14% over the past five years. This means that even if the country’s coal exports will rise by 12 million tonnes per annum, coking coal exports could rise by just 1-2 million tonnes annually.
Moreover, even if the country is able to meet the agreed quantity, it seems that Russia would supply a major proportion of the coking coal through port Vanino as the country’s major coal companies are increasing their coal handling capacity at this port. While Kolmar group plans to lift the annual coal handling capacity of the VaninoTransUgol terminal by 12 million tonnes by 2023, Albert Avdolyan plans to construct a coal terminal at Vanino with annual handling capacity of 30 million tonnes. As mentioned above vessel demand on Vanino-India will be no different from that on Australia-India and any shift of cargo away from Australia-India and towards Vanino-India will have little impact on dry bulk shipping demand.
Source: Drewry
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Saturday, 27 February 21
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
Fitch Ratings has revised some of its metals and mining price assumptions as prices for many commodities will benefit in the short term from return ...
Saturday, 27 February 21
MITSUBISHI PULLS OUT OF VINH TAN 3 COAL PROJECT IN VIETNAM - NIKKEI ASIA
Japanese trading house Mitsubishi Corp. decided Thursday to withdraw from the Vinh Tan 3 coal-fired power plant project in Vietnam amid growing int ...
Thursday, 25 February 21
ARE WE ON THE CUSP OF ANOTHER MINING SUPER-CYCLE? - WOOD MACKENZIE
As the first wave of the coronavirus pandemic began to bite, many observers confidently predicted that the end was nigh for global economic activit ...
Thursday, 25 February 21
2020 PROVED TO BE A TRULY TERRIBLE YEAR FOR SEABORNE COAL TRADE - BANCHERO COSTA
Total loadings in the 12 months of 2020 were down -12.7% year-on-year to 1,130 million tonnes, according to vessels tracking data from Refinitiv, s ...
Wednesday, 24 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
With yields of up to 563%, the shares of Greek shipping companies listed on Wall Street are recorded. The Coronavirus pandemic has not significantl ...
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
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