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Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Drewry believes this trade will have little or no impact on the demand for dry bulk shipping.
The Indian government plans to sharply lift the domestic production capacity of crude steel which could lead to even higher coking coal imports as it is a key raw material for steel production. The imports of coking coal have been rising over the past few years. While Australia is the predominant supplier of coking coal to India, accounting for around 80% of country’s imports of the commodity, the US and Canada supply the balance with Russia’s share at a negligible 1-2% annually. In 2020, the latter exported 1.2 million tonnes of coking coal to India.
As Indian steel mills are highly reliant on Australian coking coal, any disruption in the supply of the commodity in Australia could affect India’s steel production. The recent deal with Russia could be seen as an attempt by Indian coking coal traders to diversify their import portfolio and could eat into the share of Australian coal, leaving the shares of the US and Canada untouched.
Meanwhile, the Russian government plans to lift the country’s coal production to 668 million tonnes by 2035 from around 400 million tonnes in 2020 and thereby increase its presence in the Asian market. The country targets to lift its coal exports to 390 million tonnes from around 211 million tonnes in 2020, indicating that exports will rise by around 12 million tonnes per annum. In line with the country’s vison, some Russian companies such as Kolmar and Elga intend to ramp up their coal production volumes and port capacities.
Since Russia-India and Australia-India are predominantly Panamax routes, the impact of the recent deal on the demand for Panamax vessels will depend on the port that will supply coking coal to India. Russia has been exporting coal through Murmansk, Vanino, Vostochny and Ust-Luga, of which Vanino and Vostochny are almost equidistant from India, as is Australia, but Murmansk-India (and also Ust-Luga-India) is almost double the distance between India and Australia. As a result, for a given cargo volume, Murmansk-India and Ust-Luga-India should deploy twice the number of vessels than Australia-India, but for Vanino-India or Vostochny-India there will hardly be any addition in the overall vessel demand.
To estimate the influence of the Russia-India deal on vessel demand we assume that all four Russian ports will supply coal to India in equal quantities. At the speed of 11 knots, 40 million tonnes of coking coal trade on Russia-India would employ 94 odd Panamax vessels whereas the same cargo volume on Australia-India would need 66 Panamaxes, implying an increase of 28 Panamax vessels annually.
However, we believe the entire agreement between Russia and India for 40 million tonnes of annual coking coal trade will be difficult to materialise. The share of coking coal in Russia’s overall coal exports has been limited to 12-14% over the past five years. This means that even if the country’s coal exports will rise by 12 million tonnes per annum, coking coal exports could rise by just 1-2 million tonnes annually.
Moreover, even if the country is able to meet the agreed quantity, it seems that Russia would supply a major proportion of the coking coal through port Vanino as the country’s major coal companies are increasing their coal handling capacity at this port. While Kolmar group plans to lift the annual coal handling capacity of the VaninoTransUgol terminal by 12 million tonnes by 2023, Albert Avdolyan plans to construct a coal terminal at Vanino with annual handling capacity of 30 million tonnes. As mentioned above vessel demand on Vanino-India will be no different from that on Australia-India and any shift of cargo away from Australia-India and towards Vanino-India will have little impact on dry bulk shipping demand.
Source: Drewry
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Monday, 09 August 21
CHINA COAL INVENTORY THINS AMID PEAK POWER DEMAND- STATE MEDIA : REUTERS
China’s coal inventories have dropped to near historic lows since August due to peak summer electricity demand and transportation bottlenecks ...
Wednesday, 04 August 21
THE INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE SURGED TO A FRESH RECORD HIGH OF USD 130.99 A TON IN AUGUST 2021
COALspot.com: The Indonesian Coal Price Reference ( HBA) surged to a fresh record high of USD 130.99 a ton in August 2021.
The ...
Wednesday, 04 August 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Unlike the Dry Bulk and Container sectors where freight rates have surged into 2021, the tankers market continues to experience lackluster earnings ...
Sunday, 01 August 21
SEABORNE HARD COAL TRADE IN 2020 DECREASED BY 149 MILLION MT, OR 12.1%, TO 1,083 MILLION MT - GERMAN COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
- Reduced coal-fired power plant fleet secures Germany’s power supply in severe winter of 2020/2021; little wind availability and hence stron ...
Wednesday, 28 July 21
IN THE PHILIPPINES, COAL’S DEMISE MAKES WAY FOR A RENEWABLE ENERGY BOOM - IEEFA
Imported gas lock-in could undermine the economic benefits of a clean energy transition
The Philippines’ energy sector is on t ...
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Coal Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
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