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Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Drewry believes this trade will have little or no impact on the demand for dry bulk shipping.
The Indian government plans to sharply lift the domestic production capacity of crude steel which could lead to even higher coking coal imports as it is a key raw material for steel production. The imports of coking coal have been rising over the past few years. While Australia is the predominant supplier of coking coal to India, accounting for around 80% of country’s imports of the commodity, the US and Canada supply the balance with Russia’s share at a negligible 1-2% annually. In 2020, the latter exported 1.2 million tonnes of coking coal to India.
As Indian steel mills are highly reliant on Australian coking coal, any disruption in the supply of the commodity in Australia could affect India’s steel production. The recent deal with Russia could be seen as an attempt by Indian coking coal traders to diversify their import portfolio and could eat into the share of Australian coal, leaving the shares of the US and Canada untouched.
Meanwhile, the Russian government plans to lift the country’s coal production to 668 million tonnes by 2035 from around 400 million tonnes in 2020 and thereby increase its presence in the Asian market. The country targets to lift its coal exports to 390 million tonnes from around 211 million tonnes in 2020, indicating that exports will rise by around 12 million tonnes per annum. In line with the country’s vison, some Russian companies such as Kolmar and Elga intend to ramp up their coal production volumes and port capacities.
Since Russia-India and Australia-India are predominantly Panamax routes, the impact of the recent deal on the demand for Panamax vessels will depend on the port that will supply coking coal to India. Russia has been exporting coal through Murmansk, Vanino, Vostochny and Ust-Luga, of which Vanino and Vostochny are almost equidistant from India, as is Australia, but Murmansk-India (and also Ust-Luga-India) is almost double the distance between India and Australia. As a result, for a given cargo volume, Murmansk-India and Ust-Luga-India should deploy twice the number of vessels than Australia-India, but for Vanino-India or Vostochny-India there will hardly be any addition in the overall vessel demand.
To estimate the influence of the Russia-India deal on vessel demand we assume that all four Russian ports will supply coal to India in equal quantities. At the speed of 11 knots, 40 million tonnes of coking coal trade on Russia-India would employ 94 odd Panamax vessels whereas the same cargo volume on Australia-India would need 66 Panamaxes, implying an increase of 28 Panamax vessels annually.
However, we believe the entire agreement between Russia and India for 40 million tonnes of annual coking coal trade will be difficult to materialise. The share of coking coal in Russia’s overall coal exports has been limited to 12-14% over the past five years. This means that even if the country’s coal exports will rise by 12 million tonnes per annum, coking coal exports could rise by just 1-2 million tonnes annually.
Moreover, even if the country is able to meet the agreed quantity, it seems that Russia would supply a major proportion of the coking coal through port Vanino as the country’s major coal companies are increasing their coal handling capacity at this port. While Kolmar group plans to lift the annual coal handling capacity of the VaninoTransUgol terminal by 12 million tonnes by 2023, Albert Avdolyan plans to construct a coal terminal at Vanino with annual handling capacity of 30 million tonnes. As mentioned above vessel demand on Vanino-India will be no different from that on Australia-India and any shift of cargo away from Australia-India and towards Vanino-India will have little impact on dry bulk shipping demand.
Source: Drewry
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Friday, 20 August 21
ARE WE LOOKING AT THE NEXT DRY BULK SUPER CYCLE? IS IT EVEN A CYCLE? - BIMCO
Throughout the first half of the year, talk of a new dry bulk super cycle has been on many lips as commodity prices have soared to multi-year highs ...
Friday, 20 August 21
BIMCO'S SHIPPING NUMBER OF THE WEEK: CHINESE IRON ORE IMPORTS FALL TO 14-MONTH LOW IN JULY - PETER SAND
Chinese iron ore imports fell to 88.5 million tonnes in July, the lowest level since May 2020. The fall in July means that accumulated imports are ...
Friday, 20 August 21
SOARING DEMAND FOR THE WORLD’S LEAST-LIKED COMMODITY SEES THERMAL COAL PRICES JUMP 106% THIS YEAR - CNBC
Soaring electricity demand, infrastructure woes and a surge in global gas prices have triggered an extraordinary rally for the world’s least ...
Friday, 20 August 21
CHINA’S IRON ORE IMPORTS CONTRACTED YEAR-ON-YEAR BY 2% IN 2018 AND GREW YEAR-ON-YEAR BY ONLY 1% IN 2019 - COMMODORE RESEARCH
Examining the last ten years of China’s crude steel output and iron ore imports shows that China’s iron ore imports have stayed r ...
Friday, 13 August 21
INDONESIA’S COAL EXPORTS TO JAPAN DECLINED BY -26.3% YOY TO 11.9 MLN TONNES IN THE FIRST 7 MONTHS OF 2021; STILL THE SECOND LARGEST SOURCE FOR JAPAN’S COAL IMPORTS IS INDONESIA - BANCHERO COSTA
2020 proved to be a truly terrible year for global seaborne coal trade. Total global loadings in the 12 months of 2020 were down -12.7% year-on-yea ...
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- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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