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Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Drewry believes this trade will have little or no impact on the demand for dry bulk shipping.
The Indian government plans to sharply lift the domestic production capacity of crude steel which could lead to even higher coking coal imports as it is a key raw material for steel production. The imports of coking coal have been rising over the past few years. While Australia is the predominant supplier of coking coal to India, accounting for around 80% of country’s imports of the commodity, the US and Canada supply the balance with Russia’s share at a negligible 1-2% annually. In 2020, the latter exported 1.2 million tonnes of coking coal to India.
As Indian steel mills are highly reliant on Australian coking coal, any disruption in the supply of the commodity in Australia could affect India’s steel production. The recent deal with Russia could be seen as an attempt by Indian coking coal traders to diversify their import portfolio and could eat into the share of Australian coal, leaving the shares of the US and Canada untouched.
Meanwhile, the Russian government plans to lift the country’s coal production to 668 million tonnes by 2035 from around 400 million tonnes in 2020 and thereby increase its presence in the Asian market. The country targets to lift its coal exports to 390 million tonnes from around 211 million tonnes in 2020, indicating that exports will rise by around 12 million tonnes per annum. In line with the country’s vison, some Russian companies such as Kolmar and Elga intend to ramp up their coal production volumes and port capacities.
Since Russia-India and Australia-India are predominantly Panamax routes, the impact of the recent deal on the demand for Panamax vessels will depend on the port that will supply coking coal to India. Russia has been exporting coal through Murmansk, Vanino, Vostochny and Ust-Luga, of which Vanino and Vostochny are almost equidistant from India, as is Australia, but Murmansk-India (and also Ust-Luga-India) is almost double the distance between India and Australia. As a result, for a given cargo volume, Murmansk-India and Ust-Luga-India should deploy twice the number of vessels than Australia-India, but for Vanino-India or Vostochny-India there will hardly be any addition in the overall vessel demand.
To estimate the influence of the Russia-India deal on vessel demand we assume that all four Russian ports will supply coal to India in equal quantities. At the speed of 11 knots, 40 million tonnes of coking coal trade on Russia-India would employ 94 odd Panamax vessels whereas the same cargo volume on Australia-India would need 66 Panamaxes, implying an increase of 28 Panamax vessels annually.
However, we believe the entire agreement between Russia and India for 40 million tonnes of annual coking coal trade will be difficult to materialise. The share of coking coal in Russia’s overall coal exports has been limited to 12-14% over the past five years. This means that even if the country’s coal exports will rise by 12 million tonnes per annum, coking coal exports could rise by just 1-2 million tonnes annually.
Moreover, even if the country is able to meet the agreed quantity, it seems that Russia would supply a major proportion of the coking coal through port Vanino as the country’s major coal companies are increasing their coal handling capacity at this port. While Kolmar group plans to lift the annual coal handling capacity of the VaninoTransUgol terminal by 12 million tonnes by 2023, Albert Avdolyan plans to construct a coal terminal at Vanino with annual handling capacity of 30 million tonnes. As mentioned above vessel demand on Vanino-India will be no different from that on Australia-India and any shift of cargo away from Australia-India and towards Vanino-India will have little impact on dry bulk shipping demand.
Source: Drewry
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Saturday, 16 October 21
COAL IS 'KING' AS GAS PRICES SOAR, TOTAL CEO SAYS - AND IT’S BACKFIRING ON CLEANER ENERGY GOALS - CNBC
Surging natural gas prices have led to a jump in coal use, with plants in Europe and Asia firing back up as temperatures decline and the world grap ...
Saturday, 16 October 21
VIETNAM'S COAL-FIRED POWER MAY DOUBLE BY 2030 UNDER DRAFT ENERGY PLAN - REUTERS
Vietnam may double the amount of coal-fired electric generation it installs by 2030 under a draft power development plan submitted to the prime min ...
Friday, 15 October 21
AUSTRALIA'S WHITEHAVEN EXPECTS TO BE DEBT-FREE NEXT YEAR AS COAL PRICES SOAR - REUTERS
Australia’s Whitehaven Coal WHC.AX said on Thursday it expects to be debt-free by early 2022, as thermal coal prices surge to record highs on ...
Friday, 15 October 21
WINTER CHILL KEEPS CHINA'S COAL PRICES HIGH, POWER CRUNCH STOKES INFLATION - REUTERS
China coal prices held near record highs on Thursday as cold weather swept into the country’s north and power plants stocked up on the fuel t ...
Friday, 15 October 21
GLOBAL STEEL DEMAND GROWTH DOWNGRADED FOR 2021 DUE TO CHINA - WORLD STEEL ASSOCIATION
The World Steel Association (worldsteel) today released an update of its Short Range Outlook (SRO) for 2021 and 2022. worldsteel forecasts that ste ...
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- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
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