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Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Drewry believes this trade will have little or no impact on the demand for dry bulk shipping.
The Indian government plans to sharply lift the domestic production capacity of crude steel which could lead to even higher coking coal imports as it is a key raw material for steel production. The imports of coking coal have been rising over the past few years. While Australia is the predominant supplier of coking coal to India, accounting for around 80% of country’s imports of the commodity, the US and Canada supply the balance with Russia’s share at a negligible 1-2% annually. In 2020, the latter exported 1.2 million tonnes of coking coal to India.
As Indian steel mills are highly reliant on Australian coking coal, any disruption in the supply of the commodity in Australia could affect India’s steel production. The recent deal with Russia could be seen as an attempt by Indian coking coal traders to diversify their import portfolio and could eat into the share of Australian coal, leaving the shares of the US and Canada untouched.
Meanwhile, the Russian government plans to lift the country’s coal production to 668 million tonnes by 2035 from around 400 million tonnes in 2020 and thereby increase its presence in the Asian market. The country targets to lift its coal exports to 390 million tonnes from around 211 million tonnes in 2020, indicating that exports will rise by around 12 million tonnes per annum. In line with the country’s vison, some Russian companies such as Kolmar and Elga intend to ramp up their coal production volumes and port capacities.
Since Russia-India and Australia-India are predominantly Panamax routes, the impact of the recent deal on the demand for Panamax vessels will depend on the port that will supply coking coal to India. Russia has been exporting coal through Murmansk, Vanino, Vostochny and Ust-Luga, of which Vanino and Vostochny are almost equidistant from India, as is Australia, but Murmansk-India (and also Ust-Luga-India) is almost double the distance between India and Australia. As a result, for a given cargo volume, Murmansk-India and Ust-Luga-India should deploy twice the number of vessels than Australia-India, but for Vanino-India or Vostochny-India there will hardly be any addition in the overall vessel demand.
To estimate the influence of the Russia-India deal on vessel demand we assume that all four Russian ports will supply coal to India in equal quantities. At the speed of 11 knots, 40 million tonnes of coking coal trade on Russia-India would employ 94 odd Panamax vessels whereas the same cargo volume on Australia-India would need 66 Panamaxes, implying an increase of 28 Panamax vessels annually.
However, we believe the entire agreement between Russia and India for 40 million tonnes of annual coking coal trade will be difficult to materialise. The share of coking coal in Russia’s overall coal exports has been limited to 12-14% over the past five years. This means that even if the country’s coal exports will rise by 12 million tonnes per annum, coking coal exports could rise by just 1-2 million tonnes annually.
Moreover, even if the country is able to meet the agreed quantity, it seems that Russia would supply a major proportion of the coking coal through port Vanino as the country’s major coal companies are increasing their coal handling capacity at this port. While Kolmar group plans to lift the annual coal handling capacity of the VaninoTransUgol terminal by 12 million tonnes by 2023, Albert Avdolyan plans to construct a coal terminal at Vanino with annual handling capacity of 30 million tonnes. As mentioned above vessel demand on Vanino-India will be no different from that on Australia-India and any shift of cargo away from Australia-India and towards Vanino-India will have little impact on dry bulk shipping demand.
Source: Drewry
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Friday, 22 October 21
HARD COAL REMAINS AN IMPORTANT FACTOR FOR SECURITY OF SUPPLY - COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION, GERMANY
- Hard coal remains an important factor for security of supply
- Increase of around 35% in hard-coal-fired power generation in the first three ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
CHINA'S COAL SHORTAGE TO EASE IN COMING MONTHS, INDUSTRY BODY SAYS - REUTERS
China’s coal shortage will likely ease in coming months, with domestic production and imports already showing signs of picking up, a coal ind ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
CHINA'S RAW COAL OUTPUT DROPS IN SEPTEMBER - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output dropped 0.9 percent year on year to 330 million tonnes last month, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
OVER-RELIANCE ON COAL IN OUR POWER MIX HURTING INDIA - LIVEMINT
In spite of the renewables push, coal still accounts for about 50% of India’s installed power capacity. That means a simultaneous demand and ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
CHINA COAL HITS RECORD HIGH AMID TIGHT SUPPLIES - REUTERS
China coal prices hit a record high on Tuesday buoyed by a widening power crunch and cold weather despite Beijing’s efforts to bolster supply ...
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Planning Commission, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
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