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Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Drewry believes this trade will have little or no impact on the demand for dry bulk shipping.
The Indian government plans to sharply lift the domestic production capacity of crude steel which could lead to even higher coking coal imports as it is a key raw material for steel production. The imports of coking coal have been rising over the past few years. While Australia is the predominant supplier of coking coal to India, accounting for around 80% of country’s imports of the commodity, the US and Canada supply the balance with Russia’s share at a negligible 1-2% annually. In 2020, the latter exported 1.2 million tonnes of coking coal to India.
As Indian steel mills are highly reliant on Australian coking coal, any disruption in the supply of the commodity in Australia could affect India’s steel production. The recent deal with Russia could be seen as an attempt by Indian coking coal traders to diversify their import portfolio and could eat into the share of Australian coal, leaving the shares of the US and Canada untouched.
Meanwhile, the Russian government plans to lift the country’s coal production to 668 million tonnes by 2035 from around 400 million tonnes in 2020 and thereby increase its presence in the Asian market. The country targets to lift its coal exports to 390 million tonnes from around 211 million tonnes in 2020, indicating that exports will rise by around 12 million tonnes per annum. In line with the country’s vison, some Russian companies such as Kolmar and Elga intend to ramp up their coal production volumes and port capacities.
Since Russia-India and Australia-India are predominantly Panamax routes, the impact of the recent deal on the demand for Panamax vessels will depend on the port that will supply coking coal to India. Russia has been exporting coal through Murmansk, Vanino, Vostochny and Ust-Luga, of which Vanino and Vostochny are almost equidistant from India, as is Australia, but Murmansk-India (and also Ust-Luga-India) is almost double the distance between India and Australia. As a result, for a given cargo volume, Murmansk-India and Ust-Luga-India should deploy twice the number of vessels than Australia-India, but for Vanino-India or Vostochny-India there will hardly be any addition in the overall vessel demand.
To estimate the influence of the Russia-India deal on vessel demand we assume that all four Russian ports will supply coal to India in equal quantities. At the speed of 11 knots, 40 million tonnes of coking coal trade on Russia-India would employ 94 odd Panamax vessels whereas the same cargo volume on Australia-India would need 66 Panamaxes, implying an increase of 28 Panamax vessels annually.
However, we believe the entire agreement between Russia and India for 40 million tonnes of annual coking coal trade will be difficult to materialise. The share of coking coal in Russia’s overall coal exports has been limited to 12-14% over the past five years. This means that even if the country’s coal exports will rise by 12 million tonnes per annum, coking coal exports could rise by just 1-2 million tonnes annually.
Moreover, even if the country is able to meet the agreed quantity, it seems that Russia would supply a major proportion of the coking coal through port Vanino as the country’s major coal companies are increasing their coal handling capacity at this port. While Kolmar group plans to lift the annual coal handling capacity of the VaninoTransUgol terminal by 12 million tonnes by 2023, Albert Avdolyan plans to construct a coal terminal at Vanino with annual handling capacity of 30 million tonnes. As mentioned above vessel demand on Vanino-India will be no different from that on Australia-India and any shift of cargo away from Australia-India and towards Vanino-India will have little impact on dry bulk shipping demand.
Source: Drewry
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Tuesday, 26 October 21
ENERGY CRISIS SHOWS COAL IS AN EXPENSIVE AND UNRELIABLE SOURCE OF ELECTRICITY GENERATION - IEEFA
Any knee-jerk reaction that urges more investment in coal completely misses the point
India is teetering on the brink of joining a growing glo ...
Tuesday, 26 October 21
CHINA TO INVESTIGATE ENERGY INDEX PROVIDERS IN BID TO TAME COAL PRICES - REUTERS
China said on Monday it will investigate energy price index providers as it urged coal industry participants to “strictly” meet contrac ...
Tuesday, 26 October 21
THERE IS PLENTY OF COAL AND GAS IN THE WORLD BUT A VOLATILE MARKET IS NOBODY'S FRIEND - IEEFA
Gas will be winding its way out of the energy system
Gas prices are continuing to surge around the world. The cost of gas is at unpr ...
Tuesday, 26 October 21
AUSTRALIA EXPORTED 51.6 MLN TONNES OF COAL TO INDIA IN FIRST 10 MONTHS, 19% OF ALL AUSTRALIAN COAL EXPORTS; CHINA WAS THE DESTINATION FOR JUST 0.7% - BANCHERO COSTA
2020 proved to be a truly terrible year for global seaborne coal trade. In 2021 things started pretty badly, but we are seeing increasing signs of ...
Monday, 25 October 21
A QUESTION OF POSSESSION - THE BALTIC EXCHANGE
Possession and tangibility are closely related concepts long established under English law. Yet a change to these concepts is around the corner. Th ...
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- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- The University of Queensland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
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