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Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Drewry believes this trade will have little or no impact on the demand for dry bulk shipping.
The Indian government plans to sharply lift the domestic production capacity of crude steel which could lead to even higher coking coal imports as it is a key raw material for steel production. The imports of coking coal have been rising over the past few years. While Australia is the predominant supplier of coking coal to India, accounting for around 80% of country’s imports of the commodity, the US and Canada supply the balance with Russia’s share at a negligible 1-2% annually. In 2020, the latter exported 1.2 million tonnes of coking coal to India.
As Indian steel mills are highly reliant on Australian coking coal, any disruption in the supply of the commodity in Australia could affect India’s steel production. The recent deal with Russia could be seen as an attempt by Indian coking coal traders to diversify their import portfolio and could eat into the share of Australian coal, leaving the shares of the US and Canada untouched.
Meanwhile, the Russian government plans to lift the country’s coal production to 668 million tonnes by 2035 from around 400 million tonnes in 2020 and thereby increase its presence in the Asian market. The country targets to lift its coal exports to 390 million tonnes from around 211 million tonnes in 2020, indicating that exports will rise by around 12 million tonnes per annum. In line with the country’s vison, some Russian companies such as Kolmar and Elga intend to ramp up their coal production volumes and port capacities.
Since Russia-India and Australia-India are predominantly Panamax routes, the impact of the recent deal on the demand for Panamax vessels will depend on the port that will supply coking coal to India. Russia has been exporting coal through Murmansk, Vanino, Vostochny and Ust-Luga, of which Vanino and Vostochny are almost equidistant from India, as is Australia, but Murmansk-India (and also Ust-Luga-India) is almost double the distance between India and Australia. As a result, for a given cargo volume, Murmansk-India and Ust-Luga-India should deploy twice the number of vessels than Australia-India, but for Vanino-India or Vostochny-India there will hardly be any addition in the overall vessel demand.
To estimate the influence of the Russia-India deal on vessel demand we assume that all four Russian ports will supply coal to India in equal quantities. At the speed of 11 knots, 40 million tonnes of coking coal trade on Russia-India would employ 94 odd Panamax vessels whereas the same cargo volume on Australia-India would need 66 Panamaxes, implying an increase of 28 Panamax vessels annually.
However, we believe the entire agreement between Russia and India for 40 million tonnes of annual coking coal trade will be difficult to materialise. The share of coking coal in Russia’s overall coal exports has been limited to 12-14% over the past five years. This means that even if the country’s coal exports will rise by 12 million tonnes per annum, coking coal exports could rise by just 1-2 million tonnes annually.
Moreover, even if the country is able to meet the agreed quantity, it seems that Russia would supply a major proportion of the coking coal through port Vanino as the country’s major coal companies are increasing their coal handling capacity at this port. While Kolmar group plans to lift the annual coal handling capacity of the VaninoTransUgol terminal by 12 million tonnes by 2023, Albert Avdolyan plans to construct a coal terminal at Vanino with annual handling capacity of 30 million tonnes. As mentioned above vessel demand on Vanino-India will be no different from that on Australia-India and any shift of cargo away from Australia-India and towards Vanino-India will have little impact on dry bulk shipping demand.
Source: Drewry
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Saturday, 30 October 21
CHINA'S COAL PRICES SEE BIGGEST WEEKLY FALL IN MORE THAN 5 YEARS - REUTERS
China’s coal futures prices saw their biggest fall in more than five years after the powerful state planner said there is still room to adjus ...
Saturday, 30 October 21
G-20 LEADERS PREPARE STATEMENT TO STOP FUNDING FOREIGN COAL PLANTS - BLOOMBERG
Leaders of the Group of 20 wealthy economies are preparing to pledge to stop funding foreign coal-fired plants, but are still wrangling over climat ...
Friday, 29 October 21
APAC THERMAL COAL SUPPLY TO REMAIN TIGHT AS WINTER LOOMS - FITCH RATINGS
APAC thermal coal prices have surged, hitting historically high levels. The benchmark Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg grade coal reached USD228/tonne in mid ...
Thursday, 28 October 21
CANADA BAN ON SHIPPING COAL WOULD EQUAL SCRAPPING AS MANY AS 3 MILLION CARS - IEEFA
Canada ban on shipping coal would equal scrapping as many as 3 million cars
Change in Canadian policy could have major implications ...
Tuesday, 26 October 21
CHINA'S COAL-RICH SHANXI BEEFS UP COAL PRODUCTION - XINHUA
Major coal producers in north China’s Shanxi Province, a leading coal-producing region of the country, have beefed up production to ensure en ...
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- Parliament of New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The University of Queensland
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
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