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Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Drewry believes this trade will have little or no impact on the demand for dry bulk shipping.
The Indian government plans to sharply lift the domestic production capacity of crude steel which could lead to even higher coking coal imports as it is a key raw material for steel production. The imports of coking coal have been rising over the past few years. While Australia is the predominant supplier of coking coal to India, accounting for around 80% of country’s imports of the commodity, the US and Canada supply the balance with Russia’s share at a negligible 1-2% annually. In 2020, the latter exported 1.2 million tonnes of coking coal to India.
As Indian steel mills are highly reliant on Australian coking coal, any disruption in the supply of the commodity in Australia could affect India’s steel production. The recent deal with Russia could be seen as an attempt by Indian coking coal traders to diversify their import portfolio and could eat into the share of Australian coal, leaving the shares of the US and Canada untouched.
Meanwhile, the Russian government plans to lift the country’s coal production to 668 million tonnes by 2035 from around 400 million tonnes in 2020 and thereby increase its presence in the Asian market. The country targets to lift its coal exports to 390 million tonnes from around 211 million tonnes in 2020, indicating that exports will rise by around 12 million tonnes per annum. In line with the country’s vison, some Russian companies such as Kolmar and Elga intend to ramp up their coal production volumes and port capacities.
Since Russia-India and Australia-India are predominantly Panamax routes, the impact of the recent deal on the demand for Panamax vessels will depend on the port that will supply coking coal to India. Russia has been exporting coal through Murmansk, Vanino, Vostochny and Ust-Luga, of which Vanino and Vostochny are almost equidistant from India, as is Australia, but Murmansk-India (and also Ust-Luga-India) is almost double the distance between India and Australia. As a result, for a given cargo volume, Murmansk-India and Ust-Luga-India should deploy twice the number of vessels than Australia-India, but for Vanino-India or Vostochny-India there will hardly be any addition in the overall vessel demand.
To estimate the influence of the Russia-India deal on vessel demand we assume that all four Russian ports will supply coal to India in equal quantities. At the speed of 11 knots, 40 million tonnes of coking coal trade on Russia-India would employ 94 odd Panamax vessels whereas the same cargo volume on Australia-India would need 66 Panamaxes, implying an increase of 28 Panamax vessels annually.
However, we believe the entire agreement between Russia and India for 40 million tonnes of annual coking coal trade will be difficult to materialise. The share of coking coal in Russia’s overall coal exports has been limited to 12-14% over the past five years. This means that even if the country’s coal exports will rise by 12 million tonnes per annum, coking coal exports could rise by just 1-2 million tonnes annually.
Moreover, even if the country is able to meet the agreed quantity, it seems that Russia would supply a major proportion of the coking coal through port Vanino as the country’s major coal companies are increasing their coal handling capacity at this port. While Kolmar group plans to lift the annual coal handling capacity of the VaninoTransUgol terminal by 12 million tonnes by 2023, Albert Avdolyan plans to construct a coal terminal at Vanino with annual handling capacity of 30 million tonnes. As mentioned above vessel demand on Vanino-India will be no different from that on Australia-India and any shift of cargo away from Australia-India and towards Vanino-India will have little impact on dry bulk shipping demand.
Source: Drewry
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Monday, 25 October 21
CHINA VOWS TO SEVERELY PUNISH MARKET VIOLATIONS AMID LOW COAL FUTURES PRICES - GLOBAL TIMES
Domestic coal futures had plunged for three consecutive trading days after the government vowed to crack down on soaring prices, and China’s ...
Monday, 25 October 21
FARMERS MAY JOIN THE COAL COMMODITY MARKET TO REDUCE RISKS - GLOBAL TIMES
A recent trip to by the Global Times to East China’s Shandong Province to get a glimpse of China’s coal supply chain revealed a surpris ...
Monday, 25 October 21
CHINA COAL PRICES MARK WORST WEEK SINCE MAY ON GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal futures plunged on Friday and turned in their worst week in five months, following Beijing’s strongest interventio ...
Friday, 22 October 21
THE BIG PICTURE: ENERGY MARKETS - BREAK WAVE ADVISORS
The shipping markets have been pulled further into wild markets of coal and other energy sources. Given how nebulous this sector is, it’s alw ...
Friday, 22 October 21
CHINA WANTS TO COOL COAL PRICES. SIMILAR MOVES FOR METALS, CRUDE FAILED - REUTERS
China’s latest attempt to lower runaway commodity prices, this time for thermal coal, is likely to follow a familiar pattern of initial succe ...
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- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Coal Association
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
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