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Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Drewry believes this trade will have little or no impact on the demand for dry bulk shipping.
The Indian government plans to sharply lift the domestic production capacity of crude steel which could lead to even higher coking coal imports as it is a key raw material for steel production. The imports of coking coal have been rising over the past few years. While Australia is the predominant supplier of coking coal to India, accounting for around 80% of country’s imports of the commodity, the US and Canada supply the balance with Russia’s share at a negligible 1-2% annually. In 2020, the latter exported 1.2 million tonnes of coking coal to India.
As Indian steel mills are highly reliant on Australian coking coal, any disruption in the supply of the commodity in Australia could affect India’s steel production. The recent deal with Russia could be seen as an attempt by Indian coking coal traders to diversify their import portfolio and could eat into the share of Australian coal, leaving the shares of the US and Canada untouched.
Meanwhile, the Russian government plans to lift the country’s coal production to 668 million tonnes by 2035 from around 400 million tonnes in 2020 and thereby increase its presence in the Asian market. The country targets to lift its coal exports to 390 million tonnes from around 211 million tonnes in 2020, indicating that exports will rise by around 12 million tonnes per annum. In line with the country’s vison, some Russian companies such as Kolmar and Elga intend to ramp up their coal production volumes and port capacities.
Since Russia-India and Australia-India are predominantly Panamax routes, the impact of the recent deal on the demand for Panamax vessels will depend on the port that will supply coking coal to India. Russia has been exporting coal through Murmansk, Vanino, Vostochny and Ust-Luga, of which Vanino and Vostochny are almost equidistant from India, as is Australia, but Murmansk-India (and also Ust-Luga-India) is almost double the distance between India and Australia. As a result, for a given cargo volume, Murmansk-India and Ust-Luga-India should deploy twice the number of vessels than Australia-India, but for Vanino-India or Vostochny-India there will hardly be any addition in the overall vessel demand.
To estimate the influence of the Russia-India deal on vessel demand we assume that all four Russian ports will supply coal to India in equal quantities. At the speed of 11 knots, 40 million tonnes of coking coal trade on Russia-India would employ 94 odd Panamax vessels whereas the same cargo volume on Australia-India would need 66 Panamaxes, implying an increase of 28 Panamax vessels annually.
However, we believe the entire agreement between Russia and India for 40 million tonnes of annual coking coal trade will be difficult to materialise. The share of coking coal in Russia’s overall coal exports has been limited to 12-14% over the past five years. This means that even if the country’s coal exports will rise by 12 million tonnes per annum, coking coal exports could rise by just 1-2 million tonnes annually.
Moreover, even if the country is able to meet the agreed quantity, it seems that Russia would supply a major proportion of the coking coal through port Vanino as the country’s major coal companies are increasing their coal handling capacity at this port. While Kolmar group plans to lift the annual coal handling capacity of the VaninoTransUgol terminal by 12 million tonnes by 2023, Albert Avdolyan plans to construct a coal terminal at Vanino with annual handling capacity of 30 million tonnes. As mentioned above vessel demand on Vanino-India will be no different from that on Australia-India and any shift of cargo away from Australia-India and towards Vanino-India will have little impact on dry bulk shipping demand.
Source: Drewry
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Tuesday, 09 November 21
ASIA-PACIFIC IS HOME TO SOME OF THE WORLD'S LARGEST CARBON-EMITTERS - 2 CHARTS SHOW ITS RELIANCE ON COAL - CNBC
Asia-Pacific is home to some of the world’s largest carbon emitters — and experts say much of global efforts to fight climate change de ...
Tuesday, 09 November 21
CHINA DAILY COAL OUTPUT HITS MULTI-YEAR PEAK, PRICES EXPECTED TO FALL - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output hit 11.93 million tonnes last week, a multi-year high as more capacity returned to operation, the state planner sai ...
Thursday, 04 November 21
CHINA'S COAL MARKET SEES SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENTS: NDRC - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s top economic planner has declared initial success in its efforts to ensure coal supply and stabilize prices, saying that daily coal o ...
Thursday, 04 November 21
CHINA THERMAL COAL PRICES RISE AFTER FALLING FOR 10 DAYS - REUTERS
China thermal coal futures rebounded on Wednesday after falling for 10 days on an expected jump in fuel demand to meet heating needs amid forecasts ...
Thursday, 04 November 21
FASTER DECARBONISATION: BACK TO BASICS FOR THE MINING INDUSTRY? - WOOD MACKENZIE
To the uninitiated, rugby is a technical and complicated game. As young schoolboys it was all a wee bit confusing and we invariably ended up on the ...
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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