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Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Drewry believes this trade will have little or no impact on the demand for dry bulk shipping.
The Indian government plans to sharply lift the domestic production capacity of crude steel which could lead to even higher coking coal imports as it is a key raw material for steel production. The imports of coking coal have been rising over the past few years. While Australia is the predominant supplier of coking coal to India, accounting for around 80% of country’s imports of the commodity, the US and Canada supply the balance with Russia’s share at a negligible 1-2% annually. In 2020, the latter exported 1.2 million tonnes of coking coal to India.
As Indian steel mills are highly reliant on Australian coking coal, any disruption in the supply of the commodity in Australia could affect India’s steel production. The recent deal with Russia could be seen as an attempt by Indian coking coal traders to diversify their import portfolio and could eat into the share of Australian coal, leaving the shares of the US and Canada untouched.
Meanwhile, the Russian government plans to lift the country’s coal production to 668 million tonnes by 2035 from around 400 million tonnes in 2020 and thereby increase its presence in the Asian market. The country targets to lift its coal exports to 390 million tonnes from around 211 million tonnes in 2020, indicating that exports will rise by around 12 million tonnes per annum. In line with the country’s vison, some Russian companies such as Kolmar and Elga intend to ramp up their coal production volumes and port capacities.
Since Russia-India and Australia-India are predominantly Panamax routes, the impact of the recent deal on the demand for Panamax vessels will depend on the port that will supply coking coal to India. Russia has been exporting coal through Murmansk, Vanino, Vostochny and Ust-Luga, of which Vanino and Vostochny are almost equidistant from India, as is Australia, but Murmansk-India (and also Ust-Luga-India) is almost double the distance between India and Australia. As a result, for a given cargo volume, Murmansk-India and Ust-Luga-India should deploy twice the number of vessels than Australia-India, but for Vanino-India or Vostochny-India there will hardly be any addition in the overall vessel demand.
To estimate the influence of the Russia-India deal on vessel demand we assume that all four Russian ports will supply coal to India in equal quantities. At the speed of 11 knots, 40 million tonnes of coking coal trade on Russia-India would employ 94 odd Panamax vessels whereas the same cargo volume on Australia-India would need 66 Panamaxes, implying an increase of 28 Panamax vessels annually.
However, we believe the entire agreement between Russia and India for 40 million tonnes of annual coking coal trade will be difficult to materialise. The share of coking coal in Russia’s overall coal exports has been limited to 12-14% over the past five years. This means that even if the country’s coal exports will rise by 12 million tonnes per annum, coking coal exports could rise by just 1-2 million tonnes annually.
Moreover, even if the country is able to meet the agreed quantity, it seems that Russia would supply a major proportion of the coking coal through port Vanino as the country’s major coal companies are increasing their coal handling capacity at this port. While Kolmar group plans to lift the annual coal handling capacity of the VaninoTransUgol terminal by 12 million tonnes by 2023, Albert Avdolyan plans to construct a coal terminal at Vanino with annual handling capacity of 30 million tonnes. As mentioned above vessel demand on Vanino-India will be no different from that on Australia-India and any shift of cargo away from Australia-India and towards Vanino-India will have little impact on dry bulk shipping demand.
Source: Drewry
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Wednesday, 24 November 21
WHY THIS MINING ANALYST IS UPBEAT ON THE IRON ORE PRICE FORECAST - MOTLEY FOOL
In many ways, 2021 can be called the year of the iron ore price. Much of the talk of the ASX town this year has revolved around this key economic m ...
Wednesday, 24 November 21
PRICE OF CHINA’S COAL FUTURE DROPS BY 60% AS NATIONWIDE DAILY OUTPUT REACHES OVER 12 MILLION TONS: NDRC - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s daily coal output has now stabilized after reaching over 12 million tons and the price of coal futures has declined to 800 yuan ($125 ...
Friday, 19 November 21
CHINA: COAL SUPPLIES TO STABILIZE FOR COMING COLD SEASON
China is capable of ensuring stable coal supplies this winter and next spring with the increase in coal production and the rising stockpiles at pow ...
Wednesday, 17 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
It has been another declining week for the dry bulk market and evidently, we are seeing asset values gradually losing momentum as well. Following a ...
Tuesday, 16 November 21
EARNINGS RECOVERY IN INDONESIAN COAL TO CONTINUE THROUGH 2021, BUT SLOW IN 2022 - FITCH RATINGS
The recovery in the operating and financial performance of Indonesian coal miners and coal contractors is likely to slow in 2022, but coal prices s ...
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Coal Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Planning Commission, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
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