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Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Drewry believes this trade will have little or no impact on the demand for dry bulk shipping.
The Indian government plans to sharply lift the domestic production capacity of crude steel which could lead to even higher coking coal imports as it is a key raw material for steel production. The imports of coking coal have been rising over the past few years. While Australia is the predominant supplier of coking coal to India, accounting for around 80% of country’s imports of the commodity, the US and Canada supply the balance with Russia’s share at a negligible 1-2% annually. In 2020, the latter exported 1.2 million tonnes of coking coal to India.
As Indian steel mills are highly reliant on Australian coking coal, any disruption in the supply of the commodity in Australia could affect India’s steel production. The recent deal with Russia could be seen as an attempt by Indian coking coal traders to diversify their import portfolio and could eat into the share of Australian coal, leaving the shares of the US and Canada untouched.
Meanwhile, the Russian government plans to lift the country’s coal production to 668 million tonnes by 2035 from around 400 million tonnes in 2020 and thereby increase its presence in the Asian market. The country targets to lift its coal exports to 390 million tonnes from around 211 million tonnes in 2020, indicating that exports will rise by around 12 million tonnes per annum. In line with the country’s vison, some Russian companies such as Kolmar and Elga intend to ramp up their coal production volumes and port capacities.
Since Russia-India and Australia-India are predominantly Panamax routes, the impact of the recent deal on the demand for Panamax vessels will depend on the port that will supply coking coal to India. Russia has been exporting coal through Murmansk, Vanino, Vostochny and Ust-Luga, of which Vanino and Vostochny are almost equidistant from India, as is Australia, but Murmansk-India (and also Ust-Luga-India) is almost double the distance between India and Australia. As a result, for a given cargo volume, Murmansk-India and Ust-Luga-India should deploy twice the number of vessels than Australia-India, but for Vanino-India or Vostochny-India there will hardly be any addition in the overall vessel demand.
To estimate the influence of the Russia-India deal on vessel demand we assume that all four Russian ports will supply coal to India in equal quantities. At the speed of 11 knots, 40 million tonnes of coking coal trade on Russia-India would employ 94 odd Panamax vessels whereas the same cargo volume on Australia-India would need 66 Panamaxes, implying an increase of 28 Panamax vessels annually.
However, we believe the entire agreement between Russia and India for 40 million tonnes of annual coking coal trade will be difficult to materialise. The share of coking coal in Russia’s overall coal exports has been limited to 12-14% over the past five years. This means that even if the country’s coal exports will rise by 12 million tonnes per annum, coking coal exports could rise by just 1-2 million tonnes annually.
Moreover, even if the country is able to meet the agreed quantity, it seems that Russia would supply a major proportion of the coking coal through port Vanino as the country’s major coal companies are increasing their coal handling capacity at this port. While Kolmar group plans to lift the annual coal handling capacity of the VaninoTransUgol terminal by 12 million tonnes by 2023, Albert Avdolyan plans to construct a coal terminal at Vanino with annual handling capacity of 30 million tonnes. As mentioned above vessel demand on Vanino-India will be no different from that on Australia-India and any shift of cargo away from Australia-India and towards Vanino-India will have little impact on dry bulk shipping demand.
Source: Drewry
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Wednesday, 24 November 21
WHY THIS MINING ANALYST IS UPBEAT ON THE IRON ORE PRICE FORECAST - MOTLEY FOOL
In many ways, 2021 can be called the year of the iron ore price. Much of the talk of the ASX town this year has revolved around this key economic m ...
Wednesday, 24 November 21
PRICE OF CHINA’S COAL FUTURE DROPS BY 60% AS NATIONWIDE DAILY OUTPUT REACHES OVER 12 MILLION TONS: NDRC - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s daily coal output has now stabilized after reaching over 12 million tons and the price of coal futures has declined to 800 yuan ($125 ...
Friday, 19 November 21
CHINA: COAL SUPPLIES TO STABILIZE FOR COMING COLD SEASON
China is capable of ensuring stable coal supplies this winter and next spring with the increase in coal production and the rising stockpiles at pow ...
Wednesday, 17 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
It has been another declining week for the dry bulk market and evidently, we are seeing asset values gradually losing momentum as well. Following a ...
Tuesday, 16 November 21
EARNINGS RECOVERY IN INDONESIAN COAL TO CONTINUE THROUGH 2021, BUT SLOW IN 2022 - FITCH RATINGS
The recovery in the operating and financial performance of Indonesian coal miners and coal contractors is likely to slow in 2022, but coal prices s ...
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- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Coal Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
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