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Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Drewry believes this trade will have little or no impact on the demand for dry bulk shipping.
The Indian government plans to sharply lift the domestic production capacity of crude steel which could lead to even higher coking coal imports as it is a key raw material for steel production. The imports of coking coal have been rising over the past few years. While Australia is the predominant supplier of coking coal to India, accounting for around 80% of country’s imports of the commodity, the US and Canada supply the balance with Russia’s share at a negligible 1-2% annually. In 2020, the latter exported 1.2 million tonnes of coking coal to India.
As Indian steel mills are highly reliant on Australian coking coal, any disruption in the supply of the commodity in Australia could affect India’s steel production. The recent deal with Russia could be seen as an attempt by Indian coking coal traders to diversify their import portfolio and could eat into the share of Australian coal, leaving the shares of the US and Canada untouched.
Meanwhile, the Russian government plans to lift the country’s coal production to 668 million tonnes by 2035 from around 400 million tonnes in 2020 and thereby increase its presence in the Asian market. The country targets to lift its coal exports to 390 million tonnes from around 211 million tonnes in 2020, indicating that exports will rise by around 12 million tonnes per annum. In line with the country’s vison, some Russian companies such as Kolmar and Elga intend to ramp up their coal production volumes and port capacities.
Since Russia-India and Australia-India are predominantly Panamax routes, the impact of the recent deal on the demand for Panamax vessels will depend on the port that will supply coking coal to India. Russia has been exporting coal through Murmansk, Vanino, Vostochny and Ust-Luga, of which Vanino and Vostochny are almost equidistant from India, as is Australia, but Murmansk-India (and also Ust-Luga-India) is almost double the distance between India and Australia. As a result, for a given cargo volume, Murmansk-India and Ust-Luga-India should deploy twice the number of vessels than Australia-India, but for Vanino-India or Vostochny-India there will hardly be any addition in the overall vessel demand.
To estimate the influence of the Russia-India deal on vessel demand we assume that all four Russian ports will supply coal to India in equal quantities. At the speed of 11 knots, 40 million tonnes of coking coal trade on Russia-India would employ 94 odd Panamax vessels whereas the same cargo volume on Australia-India would need 66 Panamaxes, implying an increase of 28 Panamax vessels annually.
However, we believe the entire agreement between Russia and India for 40 million tonnes of annual coking coal trade will be difficult to materialise. The share of coking coal in Russia’s overall coal exports has been limited to 12-14% over the past five years. This means that even if the country’s coal exports will rise by 12 million tonnes per annum, coking coal exports could rise by just 1-2 million tonnes annually.
Moreover, even if the country is able to meet the agreed quantity, it seems that Russia would supply a major proportion of the coking coal through port Vanino as the country’s major coal companies are increasing their coal handling capacity at this port. While Kolmar group plans to lift the annual coal handling capacity of the VaninoTransUgol terminal by 12 million tonnes by 2023, Albert Avdolyan plans to construct a coal terminal at Vanino with annual handling capacity of 30 million tonnes. As mentioned above vessel demand on Vanino-India will be no different from that on Australia-India and any shift of cargo away from Australia-India and towards Vanino-India will have little impact on dry bulk shipping demand.
Source: Drewry
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Friday, 26 November 21
CHINA FINDS COMPLIANCE PROBLEMS IN COAL PRICE INDEX PROBE - REUTERS
China’s state planner on Wednesday said it had discovered some “noncompliant” behaviour among coal price index providers as it an ...
Thursday, 25 November 21
SE ASIA POWER DEMAND TO RISE AS STATE SUPPORT MITIGATES COVID-19 IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
Electricity demand in south-east Asia is likely to increase in 2021, following slow growth or contraction in 2020, thanks to state support that has ...
Thursday, 25 November 21
FITCH RATINGS INCREASES MOST GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings has increased most metals and mining price assumptions, particularly those that benefit from increased longer-term demand due to glob ...
Thursday, 25 November 21
CHINA'S COAL PRICE DROPS IN MID-NOVEMBER AMID GOVERNMENT’S SWEEPING MEASURES - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s coal prices have dropped significantly in mid-November compared with the beginning of the month, with the price of coking coal and co ...
Wednesday, 24 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Inflation is the word that has dominated the meetings of foreign leaders and finance ministers in recent weeks, as rising energy costs, supply chai ...
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- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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