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Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Drewry believes this trade will have little or no impact on the demand for dry bulk shipping.
The Indian government plans to sharply lift the domestic production capacity of crude steel which could lead to even higher coking coal imports as it is a key raw material for steel production. The imports of coking coal have been rising over the past few years. While Australia is the predominant supplier of coking coal to India, accounting for around 80% of country’s imports of the commodity, the US and Canada supply the balance with Russia’s share at a negligible 1-2% annually. In 2020, the latter exported 1.2 million tonnes of coking coal to India.
As Indian steel mills are highly reliant on Australian coking coal, any disruption in the supply of the commodity in Australia could affect India’s steel production. The recent deal with Russia could be seen as an attempt by Indian coking coal traders to diversify their import portfolio and could eat into the share of Australian coal, leaving the shares of the US and Canada untouched.
Meanwhile, the Russian government plans to lift the country’s coal production to 668 million tonnes by 2035 from around 400 million tonnes in 2020 and thereby increase its presence in the Asian market. The country targets to lift its coal exports to 390 million tonnes from around 211 million tonnes in 2020, indicating that exports will rise by around 12 million tonnes per annum. In line with the country’s vison, some Russian companies such as Kolmar and Elga intend to ramp up their coal production volumes and port capacities.
Since Russia-India and Australia-India are predominantly Panamax routes, the impact of the recent deal on the demand for Panamax vessels will depend on the port that will supply coking coal to India. Russia has been exporting coal through Murmansk, Vanino, Vostochny and Ust-Luga, of which Vanino and Vostochny are almost equidistant from India, as is Australia, but Murmansk-India (and also Ust-Luga-India) is almost double the distance between India and Australia. As a result, for a given cargo volume, Murmansk-India and Ust-Luga-India should deploy twice the number of vessels than Australia-India, but for Vanino-India or Vostochny-India there will hardly be any addition in the overall vessel demand.
To estimate the influence of the Russia-India deal on vessel demand we assume that all four Russian ports will supply coal to India in equal quantities. At the speed of 11 knots, 40 million tonnes of coking coal trade on Russia-India would employ 94 odd Panamax vessels whereas the same cargo volume on Australia-India would need 66 Panamaxes, implying an increase of 28 Panamax vessels annually.
However, we believe the entire agreement between Russia and India for 40 million tonnes of annual coking coal trade will be difficult to materialise. The share of coking coal in Russia’s overall coal exports has been limited to 12-14% over the past five years. This means that even if the country’s coal exports will rise by 12 million tonnes per annum, coking coal exports could rise by just 1-2 million tonnes annually.
Moreover, even if the country is able to meet the agreed quantity, it seems that Russia would supply a major proportion of the coking coal through port Vanino as the country’s major coal companies are increasing their coal handling capacity at this port. While Kolmar group plans to lift the annual coal handling capacity of the VaninoTransUgol terminal by 12 million tonnes by 2023, Albert Avdolyan plans to construct a coal terminal at Vanino with annual handling capacity of 30 million tonnes. As mentioned above vessel demand on Vanino-India will be no different from that on Australia-India and any shift of cargo away from Australia-India and towards Vanino-India will have little impact on dry bulk shipping demand.
Source: Drewry
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Tuesday, 07 December 21
COAL FIRMS SEE SHARE PRICES SURGE MONDAY, AFTER GOVERNMENT READJUSTS CONTRACT PRICES - GLOBAL TIMES
Share prices of China’s coal enterprises jumped on Monday on the A-share market following a nationwide adjustment to annual thermal coal pric ...
Monday, 06 December 21
CHINA SETS 2022 ANNUAL THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 700 YUAN/T - MEDIA: REUTERS
China’s top economic planner has proposed to set annual thermal coal prices for 2022 at between 550 yuan and 850 yuan ($86-$133) per tonne, a ...
Thursday, 02 December 21
BUMI RECORDED US$ 666.18 MILLION AS REVENUE IN THE 3RD QUARTER, UP 13.31% YOY
PT Bumi Resources Tbk and its subsidiaries have recorded a surge in revenue in the third quarter of 2021. BUMI has recorded US$ 666.18 million as r ...
Thursday, 02 December 21
CHINA'S COAL CRUNCH IS OVER, BUT PRICES ARE STILL TOO HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal crisis has largely been resolved with gains in both production and stockpiles sufficient to ensure power supplies over winter.
...
Wednesday, 01 December 21
2022 OUTLOOK: INDONESIAN COAL MINING - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings has a neutral outlook on the Indonesian coal sector for 2022.
Earnings generation should slow down as selling pr ...
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
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