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Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Drewry believes this trade will have little or no impact on the demand for dry bulk shipping.
The Indian government plans to sharply lift the domestic production capacity of crude steel which could lead to even higher coking coal imports as it is a key raw material for steel production. The imports of coking coal have been rising over the past few years. While Australia is the predominant supplier of coking coal to India, accounting for around 80% of country’s imports of the commodity, the US and Canada supply the balance with Russia’s share at a negligible 1-2% annually. In 2020, the latter exported 1.2 million tonnes of coking coal to India.
As Indian steel mills are highly reliant on Australian coking coal, any disruption in the supply of the commodity in Australia could affect India’s steel production. The recent deal with Russia could be seen as an attempt by Indian coking coal traders to diversify their import portfolio and could eat into the share of Australian coal, leaving the shares of the US and Canada untouched.
Meanwhile, the Russian government plans to lift the country’s coal production to 668 million tonnes by 2035 from around 400 million tonnes in 2020 and thereby increase its presence in the Asian market. The country targets to lift its coal exports to 390 million tonnes from around 211 million tonnes in 2020, indicating that exports will rise by around 12 million tonnes per annum. In line with the country’s vison, some Russian companies such as Kolmar and Elga intend to ramp up their coal production volumes and port capacities.
Since Russia-India and Australia-India are predominantly Panamax routes, the impact of the recent deal on the demand for Panamax vessels will depend on the port that will supply coking coal to India. Russia has been exporting coal through Murmansk, Vanino, Vostochny and Ust-Luga, of which Vanino and Vostochny are almost equidistant from India, as is Australia, but Murmansk-India (and also Ust-Luga-India) is almost double the distance between India and Australia. As a result, for a given cargo volume, Murmansk-India and Ust-Luga-India should deploy twice the number of vessels than Australia-India, but for Vanino-India or Vostochny-India there will hardly be any addition in the overall vessel demand.
To estimate the influence of the Russia-India deal on vessel demand we assume that all four Russian ports will supply coal to India in equal quantities. At the speed of 11 knots, 40 million tonnes of coking coal trade on Russia-India would employ 94 odd Panamax vessels whereas the same cargo volume on Australia-India would need 66 Panamaxes, implying an increase of 28 Panamax vessels annually.
However, we believe the entire agreement between Russia and India for 40 million tonnes of annual coking coal trade will be difficult to materialise. The share of coking coal in Russia’s overall coal exports has been limited to 12-14% over the past five years. This means that even if the country’s coal exports will rise by 12 million tonnes per annum, coking coal exports could rise by just 1-2 million tonnes annually.
Moreover, even if the country is able to meet the agreed quantity, it seems that Russia would supply a major proportion of the coking coal through port Vanino as the country’s major coal companies are increasing their coal handling capacity at this port. While Kolmar group plans to lift the annual coal handling capacity of the VaninoTransUgol terminal by 12 million tonnes by 2023, Albert Avdolyan plans to construct a coal terminal at Vanino with annual handling capacity of 30 million tonnes. As mentioned above vessel demand on Vanino-India will be no different from that on Australia-India and any shift of cargo away from Australia-India and towards Vanino-India will have little impact on dry bulk shipping demand.
Source: Drewry
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Tuesday, 07 December 21
COAL FIRMS SEE SHARE PRICES SURGE MONDAY, AFTER GOVERNMENT READJUSTS CONTRACT PRICES - GLOBAL TIMES
Share prices of China’s coal enterprises jumped on Monday on the A-share market following a nationwide adjustment to annual thermal coal pric ...
Monday, 06 December 21
CHINA SETS 2022 ANNUAL THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 700 YUAN/T - MEDIA: REUTERS
China’s top economic planner has proposed to set annual thermal coal prices for 2022 at between 550 yuan and 850 yuan ($86-$133) per tonne, a ...
Thursday, 02 December 21
BUMI RECORDED US$ 666.18 MILLION AS REVENUE IN THE 3RD QUARTER, UP 13.31% YOY
PT Bumi Resources Tbk and its subsidiaries have recorded a surge in revenue in the third quarter of 2021. BUMI has recorded US$ 666.18 million as r ...
Thursday, 02 December 21
CHINA'S COAL CRUNCH IS OVER, BUT PRICES ARE STILL TOO HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal crisis has largely been resolved with gains in both production and stockpiles sufficient to ensure power supplies over winter.
...
Wednesday, 01 December 21
2022 OUTLOOK: INDONESIAN COAL MINING - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings has a neutral outlook on the Indonesian coal sector for 2022.
Earnings generation should slow down as selling pr ...
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- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- White Energy Company Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The University of Queensland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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