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Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Drewry believes this trade will have little or no impact on the demand for dry bulk shipping.
The Indian government plans to sharply lift the domestic production capacity of crude steel which could lead to even higher coking coal imports as it is a key raw material for steel production. The imports of coking coal have been rising over the past few years. While Australia is the predominant supplier of coking coal to India, accounting for around 80% of country’s imports of the commodity, the US and Canada supply the balance with Russia’s share at a negligible 1-2% annually. In 2020, the latter exported 1.2 million tonnes of coking coal to India.
As Indian steel mills are highly reliant on Australian coking coal, any disruption in the supply of the commodity in Australia could affect India’s steel production. The recent deal with Russia could be seen as an attempt by Indian coking coal traders to diversify their import portfolio and could eat into the share of Australian coal, leaving the shares of the US and Canada untouched.
Meanwhile, the Russian government plans to lift the country’s coal production to 668 million tonnes by 2035 from around 400 million tonnes in 2020 and thereby increase its presence in the Asian market. The country targets to lift its coal exports to 390 million tonnes from around 211 million tonnes in 2020, indicating that exports will rise by around 12 million tonnes per annum. In line with the country’s vison, some Russian companies such as Kolmar and Elga intend to ramp up their coal production volumes and port capacities.
Since Russia-India and Australia-India are predominantly Panamax routes, the impact of the recent deal on the demand for Panamax vessels will depend on the port that will supply coking coal to India. Russia has been exporting coal through Murmansk, Vanino, Vostochny and Ust-Luga, of which Vanino and Vostochny are almost equidistant from India, as is Australia, but Murmansk-India (and also Ust-Luga-India) is almost double the distance between India and Australia. As a result, for a given cargo volume, Murmansk-India and Ust-Luga-India should deploy twice the number of vessels than Australia-India, but for Vanino-India or Vostochny-India there will hardly be any addition in the overall vessel demand.
To estimate the influence of the Russia-India deal on vessel demand we assume that all four Russian ports will supply coal to India in equal quantities. At the speed of 11 knots, 40 million tonnes of coking coal trade on Russia-India would employ 94 odd Panamax vessels whereas the same cargo volume on Australia-India would need 66 Panamaxes, implying an increase of 28 Panamax vessels annually.
However, we believe the entire agreement between Russia and India for 40 million tonnes of annual coking coal trade will be difficult to materialise. The share of coking coal in Russia’s overall coal exports has been limited to 12-14% over the past five years. This means that even if the country’s coal exports will rise by 12 million tonnes per annum, coking coal exports could rise by just 1-2 million tonnes annually.
Moreover, even if the country is able to meet the agreed quantity, it seems that Russia would supply a major proportion of the coking coal through port Vanino as the country’s major coal companies are increasing their coal handling capacity at this port. While Kolmar group plans to lift the annual coal handling capacity of the VaninoTransUgol terminal by 12 million tonnes by 2023, Albert Avdolyan plans to construct a coal terminal at Vanino with annual handling capacity of 30 million tonnes. As mentioned above vessel demand on Vanino-India will be no different from that on Australia-India and any shift of cargo away from Australia-India and towards Vanino-India will have little impact on dry bulk shipping demand.
Source: Drewry
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Thursday, 23 December 21
COAL DEMAND TO PEAK IN INDIA BY 2030, WILL BACK UP RENEWABLES: NITI REPORT - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal will remain India’s mainstay energy source and the country will shape global demand this decade, two reports have said a month after the ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
INDONESIA’S 2022 COAL OUTPUT SEEN BETWEEN 637 MLN-664 MLN T- OFFICIAL - REUTERS
Indonesia’s 2022 coal output is estimated at between 637 million to 664 million tonnes based on production plans currently being finalised, s ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
VALE ANNOUNCES THE SALE OF ITS COAL ASSETS
Vale informs that, on this date, it has entered into a binding agreement with Vulcan to sell the Moatize coal mine and the Nacala Logistics Corrido ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
INDIA: CAPTIVE POWER PRODUCERS URGE GOVT TO ENSURE NORMAL COAL SUPPLIES - PTI
A captive power producers’ association has urged the government for 100 per cent normalisation of coal supply to captive power producers whil ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As an outstanding year for the dry bulk freight market comes to a close, so does a thriving year for the SnP market which can only be compared to 2 ...
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
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