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Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Drewry believes this trade will have little or no impact on the demand for dry bulk shipping.
The Indian government plans to sharply lift the domestic production capacity of crude steel which could lead to even higher coking coal imports as it is a key raw material for steel production. The imports of coking coal have been rising over the past few years. While Australia is the predominant supplier of coking coal to India, accounting for around 80% of country’s imports of the commodity, the US and Canada supply the balance with Russia’s share at a negligible 1-2% annually. In 2020, the latter exported 1.2 million tonnes of coking coal to India.
As Indian steel mills are highly reliant on Australian coking coal, any disruption in the supply of the commodity in Australia could affect India’s steel production. The recent deal with Russia could be seen as an attempt by Indian coking coal traders to diversify their import portfolio and could eat into the share of Australian coal, leaving the shares of the US and Canada untouched.
Meanwhile, the Russian government plans to lift the country’s coal production to 668 million tonnes by 2035 from around 400 million tonnes in 2020 and thereby increase its presence in the Asian market. The country targets to lift its coal exports to 390 million tonnes from around 211 million tonnes in 2020, indicating that exports will rise by around 12 million tonnes per annum. In line with the country’s vison, some Russian companies such as Kolmar and Elga intend to ramp up their coal production volumes and port capacities.
Since Russia-India and Australia-India are predominantly Panamax routes, the impact of the recent deal on the demand for Panamax vessels will depend on the port that will supply coking coal to India. Russia has been exporting coal through Murmansk, Vanino, Vostochny and Ust-Luga, of which Vanino and Vostochny are almost equidistant from India, as is Australia, but Murmansk-India (and also Ust-Luga-India) is almost double the distance between India and Australia. As a result, for a given cargo volume, Murmansk-India and Ust-Luga-India should deploy twice the number of vessels than Australia-India, but for Vanino-India or Vostochny-India there will hardly be any addition in the overall vessel demand.
To estimate the influence of the Russia-India deal on vessel demand we assume that all four Russian ports will supply coal to India in equal quantities. At the speed of 11 knots, 40 million tonnes of coking coal trade on Russia-India would employ 94 odd Panamax vessels whereas the same cargo volume on Australia-India would need 66 Panamaxes, implying an increase of 28 Panamax vessels annually.
However, we believe the entire agreement between Russia and India for 40 million tonnes of annual coking coal trade will be difficult to materialise. The share of coking coal in Russia’s overall coal exports has been limited to 12-14% over the past five years. This means that even if the country’s coal exports will rise by 12 million tonnes per annum, coking coal exports could rise by just 1-2 million tonnes annually.
Moreover, even if the country is able to meet the agreed quantity, it seems that Russia would supply a major proportion of the coking coal through port Vanino as the country’s major coal companies are increasing their coal handling capacity at this port. While Kolmar group plans to lift the annual coal handling capacity of the VaninoTransUgol terminal by 12 million tonnes by 2023, Albert Avdolyan plans to construct a coal terminal at Vanino with annual handling capacity of 30 million tonnes. As mentioned above vessel demand on Vanino-India will be no different from that on Australia-India and any shift of cargo away from Australia-India and towards Vanino-India will have little impact on dry bulk shipping demand.
Source: Drewry
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Tuesday, 14 December 21
COAL LOCK-IN IN SOUTHEAST ASIA PRESENTS A CHALLENGE FOR THE ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK'S COAL RETIREMENT PLAN - IEEFA
In August, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) announced an ambitious plan to buy high emissions coal-fired power plants in Southeast Asia and retire ...
Saturday, 11 December 21
BUNKER BUYERS LOSE UP TO $5/MT FOR NOT COVERING ENOUGH SUPPLIERS - INTEGR8 FUELS
With the Brent price recently touching the $80 mark and before the Omicron variant concerns pushed it lower, bunker prices reached levels not seen ...
Tuesday, 07 December 21
SUPERCYCLE DEMAND: ARE WE THERE YET? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Taking young children on a long journey is fraught with challenges, not least the inevitable question a few minutes after leaving: are we there yet ...
Tuesday, 07 December 21
COAL WOULD REMAIN ENERGY LEADER FOR AT LEAST 15 YEARS - LIVEMINT
Coal India Ltd (CIL) has been in the eye of the storm after fuel stocks at coal-fuelled power plants depleted in October. Fuel stocks since are bei ...
Tuesday, 07 December 21
GLOBAL SHIPPING OUTLOOK TURNS STABLE FROM POSITIVE ON THE BACK OF PEAKING EARNINGS DURING 2021 - MOODY'S
The outlook for the global shipping industry is changed to stable from positive for the next 12 to 18 months due to demand slightly outstripping su ...
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- Economic Council, Georgia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
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