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Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Drewry believes this trade will have little or no impact on the demand for dry bulk shipping.
The Indian government plans to sharply lift the domestic production capacity of crude steel which could lead to even higher coking coal imports as it is a key raw material for steel production. The imports of coking coal have been rising over the past few years. While Australia is the predominant supplier of coking coal to India, accounting for around 80% of country’s imports of the commodity, the US and Canada supply the balance with Russia’s share at a negligible 1-2% annually. In 2020, the latter exported 1.2 million tonnes of coking coal to India.
As Indian steel mills are highly reliant on Australian coking coal, any disruption in the supply of the commodity in Australia could affect India’s steel production. The recent deal with Russia could be seen as an attempt by Indian coking coal traders to diversify their import portfolio and could eat into the share of Australian coal, leaving the shares of the US and Canada untouched.
Meanwhile, the Russian government plans to lift the country’s coal production to 668 million tonnes by 2035 from around 400 million tonnes in 2020 and thereby increase its presence in the Asian market. The country targets to lift its coal exports to 390 million tonnes from around 211 million tonnes in 2020, indicating that exports will rise by around 12 million tonnes per annum. In line with the country’s vison, some Russian companies such as Kolmar and Elga intend to ramp up their coal production volumes and port capacities.
Since Russia-India and Australia-India are predominantly Panamax routes, the impact of the recent deal on the demand for Panamax vessels will depend on the port that will supply coking coal to India. Russia has been exporting coal through Murmansk, Vanino, Vostochny and Ust-Luga, of which Vanino and Vostochny are almost equidistant from India, as is Australia, but Murmansk-India (and also Ust-Luga-India) is almost double the distance between India and Australia. As a result, for a given cargo volume, Murmansk-India and Ust-Luga-India should deploy twice the number of vessels than Australia-India, but for Vanino-India or Vostochny-India there will hardly be any addition in the overall vessel demand.
To estimate the influence of the Russia-India deal on vessel demand we assume that all four Russian ports will supply coal to India in equal quantities. At the speed of 11 knots, 40 million tonnes of coking coal trade on Russia-India would employ 94 odd Panamax vessels whereas the same cargo volume on Australia-India would need 66 Panamaxes, implying an increase of 28 Panamax vessels annually.
However, we believe the entire agreement between Russia and India for 40 million tonnes of annual coking coal trade will be difficult to materialise. The share of coking coal in Russia’s overall coal exports has been limited to 12-14% over the past five years. This means that even if the country’s coal exports will rise by 12 million tonnes per annum, coking coal exports could rise by just 1-2 million tonnes annually.
Moreover, even if the country is able to meet the agreed quantity, it seems that Russia would supply a major proportion of the coking coal through port Vanino as the country’s major coal companies are increasing their coal handling capacity at this port. While Kolmar group plans to lift the annual coal handling capacity of the VaninoTransUgol terminal by 12 million tonnes by 2023, Albert Avdolyan plans to construct a coal terminal at Vanino with annual handling capacity of 30 million tonnes. As mentioned above vessel demand on Vanino-India will be no different from that on Australia-India and any shift of cargo away from Australia-India and towards Vanino-India will have little impact on dry bulk shipping demand.
Source: Drewry
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Tuesday, 14 December 21
COAL LOCK-IN IN SOUTHEAST ASIA PRESENTS A CHALLENGE FOR THE ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK'S COAL RETIREMENT PLAN - IEEFA
In August, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) announced an ambitious plan to buy high emissions coal-fired power plants in Southeast Asia and retire ...
Saturday, 11 December 21
BUNKER BUYERS LOSE UP TO $5/MT FOR NOT COVERING ENOUGH SUPPLIERS - INTEGR8 FUELS
With the Brent price recently touching the $80 mark and before the Omicron variant concerns pushed it lower, bunker prices reached levels not seen ...
Tuesday, 07 December 21
SUPERCYCLE DEMAND: ARE WE THERE YET? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Taking young children on a long journey is fraught with challenges, not least the inevitable question a few minutes after leaving: are we there yet ...
Tuesday, 07 December 21
COAL WOULD REMAIN ENERGY LEADER FOR AT LEAST 15 YEARS - LIVEMINT
Coal India Ltd (CIL) has been in the eye of the storm after fuel stocks at coal-fuelled power plants depleted in October. Fuel stocks since are bei ...
Tuesday, 07 December 21
GLOBAL SHIPPING OUTLOOK TURNS STABLE FROM POSITIVE ON THE BACK OF PEAKING EARNINGS DURING 2021 - MOODY'S
The outlook for the global shipping industry is changed to stable from positive for the next 12 to 18 months due to demand slightly outstripping su ...
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The University of Queensland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
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