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Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Drewry believes this trade will have little or no impact on the demand for dry bulk shipping.
The Indian government plans to sharply lift the domestic production capacity of crude steel which could lead to even higher coking coal imports as it is a key raw material for steel production. The imports of coking coal have been rising over the past few years. While Australia is the predominant supplier of coking coal to India, accounting for around 80% of country’s imports of the commodity, the US and Canada supply the balance with Russia’s share at a negligible 1-2% annually. In 2020, the latter exported 1.2 million tonnes of coking coal to India.
As Indian steel mills are highly reliant on Australian coking coal, any disruption in the supply of the commodity in Australia could affect India’s steel production. The recent deal with Russia could be seen as an attempt by Indian coking coal traders to diversify their import portfolio and could eat into the share of Australian coal, leaving the shares of the US and Canada untouched.
Meanwhile, the Russian government plans to lift the country’s coal production to 668 million tonnes by 2035 from around 400 million tonnes in 2020 and thereby increase its presence in the Asian market. The country targets to lift its coal exports to 390 million tonnes from around 211 million tonnes in 2020, indicating that exports will rise by around 12 million tonnes per annum. In line with the country’s vison, some Russian companies such as Kolmar and Elga intend to ramp up their coal production volumes and port capacities.
Since Russia-India and Australia-India are predominantly Panamax routes, the impact of the recent deal on the demand for Panamax vessels will depend on the port that will supply coking coal to India. Russia has been exporting coal through Murmansk, Vanino, Vostochny and Ust-Luga, of which Vanino and Vostochny are almost equidistant from India, as is Australia, but Murmansk-India (and also Ust-Luga-India) is almost double the distance between India and Australia. As a result, for a given cargo volume, Murmansk-India and Ust-Luga-India should deploy twice the number of vessels than Australia-India, but for Vanino-India or Vostochny-India there will hardly be any addition in the overall vessel demand.
To estimate the influence of the Russia-India deal on vessel demand we assume that all four Russian ports will supply coal to India in equal quantities. At the speed of 11 knots, 40 million tonnes of coking coal trade on Russia-India would employ 94 odd Panamax vessels whereas the same cargo volume on Australia-India would need 66 Panamaxes, implying an increase of 28 Panamax vessels annually.
However, we believe the entire agreement between Russia and India for 40 million tonnes of annual coking coal trade will be difficult to materialise. The share of coking coal in Russia’s overall coal exports has been limited to 12-14% over the past five years. This means that even if the country’s coal exports will rise by 12 million tonnes per annum, coking coal exports could rise by just 1-2 million tonnes annually.
Moreover, even if the country is able to meet the agreed quantity, it seems that Russia would supply a major proportion of the coking coal through port Vanino as the country’s major coal companies are increasing their coal handling capacity at this port. While Kolmar group plans to lift the annual coal handling capacity of the VaninoTransUgol terminal by 12 million tonnes by 2023, Albert Avdolyan plans to construct a coal terminal at Vanino with annual handling capacity of 30 million tonnes. As mentioned above vessel demand on Vanino-India will be no different from that on Australia-India and any shift of cargo away from Australia-India and towards Vanino-India will have little impact on dry bulk shipping demand.
Source: Drewry
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Wednesday, 05 January 22
CHINA COAL FUTURES SURGE ON SUPPLY WORRIES AMID INDONESIA EXPORT BAN - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal futures surged by as much as 7.8per cent to kick off 2022 on concerns of supply disruptions after Indonesia, its biggest ...
Wednesday, 05 January 22
INDONESIA WARNS COAL SUPPLY CRUNCH NOT OVER AS CHINA PRICES RALLY - REUTERS
Indonesia has warned that its coal supply situation remains critical, ahead of Wednesday’s (Jan 5) review of its export ban, unnerving global ...
Tuesday, 28 December 21
INDIA'S ADANI NEARS FIRST COAL SHIPMENT FROM SHUNNED AUSTRALIAN MINE - REUTERS
India’s Adani Group ADEL.NS is preparing to ship the first coal cargo from Australia’s most controversial mine, after battling a seven- ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
COAL TO STAY AS MAJOR SOURCE OF ENERGY IN FORESEEABLE FUTURE: JOSHI - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal will stay as a major source of energy in the foreseeable future as it is an affordable source of energy with substantial reserve, Parliament w ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
ANNUAL U.S. COAL-FIRED ELECTRICITY GENERATION WILL INCREASE FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE 2014 - EIA
From December 20 through December 30, Today in Energy will feature some of our favorite articles from 2021. Today’s article was originally pu ...
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The University of Queensland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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