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Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Drewry believes this trade will have little or no impact on the demand for dry bulk shipping.
The Indian government plans to sharply lift the domestic production capacity of crude steel which could lead to even higher coking coal imports as it is a key raw material for steel production. The imports of coking coal have been rising over the past few years. While Australia is the predominant supplier of coking coal to India, accounting for around 80% of country’s imports of the commodity, the US and Canada supply the balance with Russia’s share at a negligible 1-2% annually. In 2020, the latter exported 1.2 million tonnes of coking coal to India.
As Indian steel mills are highly reliant on Australian coking coal, any disruption in the supply of the commodity in Australia could affect India’s steel production. The recent deal with Russia could be seen as an attempt by Indian coking coal traders to diversify their import portfolio and could eat into the share of Australian coal, leaving the shares of the US and Canada untouched.
Meanwhile, the Russian government plans to lift the country’s coal production to 668 million tonnes by 2035 from around 400 million tonnes in 2020 and thereby increase its presence in the Asian market. The country targets to lift its coal exports to 390 million tonnes from around 211 million tonnes in 2020, indicating that exports will rise by around 12 million tonnes per annum. In line with the country’s vison, some Russian companies such as Kolmar and Elga intend to ramp up their coal production volumes and port capacities.
Since Russia-India and Australia-India are predominantly Panamax routes, the impact of the recent deal on the demand for Panamax vessels will depend on the port that will supply coking coal to India. Russia has been exporting coal through Murmansk, Vanino, Vostochny and Ust-Luga, of which Vanino and Vostochny are almost equidistant from India, as is Australia, but Murmansk-India (and also Ust-Luga-India) is almost double the distance between India and Australia. As a result, for a given cargo volume, Murmansk-India and Ust-Luga-India should deploy twice the number of vessels than Australia-India, but for Vanino-India or Vostochny-India there will hardly be any addition in the overall vessel demand.
To estimate the influence of the Russia-India deal on vessel demand we assume that all four Russian ports will supply coal to India in equal quantities. At the speed of 11 knots, 40 million tonnes of coking coal trade on Russia-India would employ 94 odd Panamax vessels whereas the same cargo volume on Australia-India would need 66 Panamaxes, implying an increase of 28 Panamax vessels annually.
However, we believe the entire agreement between Russia and India for 40 million tonnes of annual coking coal trade will be difficult to materialise. The share of coking coal in Russia’s overall coal exports has been limited to 12-14% over the past five years. This means that even if the country’s coal exports will rise by 12 million tonnes per annum, coking coal exports could rise by just 1-2 million tonnes annually.
Moreover, even if the country is able to meet the agreed quantity, it seems that Russia would supply a major proportion of the coking coal through port Vanino as the country’s major coal companies are increasing their coal handling capacity at this port. While Kolmar group plans to lift the annual coal handling capacity of the VaninoTransUgol terminal by 12 million tonnes by 2023, Albert Avdolyan plans to construct a coal terminal at Vanino with annual handling capacity of 30 million tonnes. As mentioned above vessel demand on Vanino-India will be no different from that on Australia-India and any shift of cargo away from Australia-India and towards Vanino-India will have little impact on dry bulk shipping demand.
Source: Drewry
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Wednesday, 05 January 22
CHINA COAL FUTURES SURGE ON SUPPLY WORRIES AMID INDONESIA EXPORT BAN - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal futures surged by as much as 7.8per cent to kick off 2022 on concerns of supply disruptions after Indonesia, its biggest ...
Wednesday, 05 January 22
INDONESIA WARNS COAL SUPPLY CRUNCH NOT OVER AS CHINA PRICES RALLY - REUTERS
Indonesia has warned that its coal supply situation remains critical, ahead of Wednesday’s (Jan 5) review of its export ban, unnerving global ...
Tuesday, 28 December 21
INDIA'S ADANI NEARS FIRST COAL SHIPMENT FROM SHUNNED AUSTRALIAN MINE - REUTERS
India’s Adani Group ADEL.NS is preparing to ship the first coal cargo from Australia’s most controversial mine, after battling a seven- ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
COAL TO STAY AS MAJOR SOURCE OF ENERGY IN FORESEEABLE FUTURE: JOSHI - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal will stay as a major source of energy in the foreseeable future as it is an affordable source of energy with substantial reserve, Parliament w ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
ANNUAL U.S. COAL-FIRED ELECTRICITY GENERATION WILL INCREASE FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE 2014 - EIA
From December 20 through December 30, Today in Energy will feature some of our favorite articles from 2021. Today’s article was originally pu ...
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
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