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Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Drewry believes this trade will have little or no impact on the demand for dry bulk shipping.
The Indian government plans to sharply lift the domestic production capacity of crude steel which could lead to even higher coking coal imports as it is a key raw material for steel production. The imports of coking coal have been rising over the past few years. While Australia is the predominant supplier of coking coal to India, accounting for around 80% of country’s imports of the commodity, the US and Canada supply the balance with Russia’s share at a negligible 1-2% annually. In 2020, the latter exported 1.2 million tonnes of coking coal to India.
As Indian steel mills are highly reliant on Australian coking coal, any disruption in the supply of the commodity in Australia could affect India’s steel production. The recent deal with Russia could be seen as an attempt by Indian coking coal traders to diversify their import portfolio and could eat into the share of Australian coal, leaving the shares of the US and Canada untouched.
Meanwhile, the Russian government plans to lift the country’s coal production to 668 million tonnes by 2035 from around 400 million tonnes in 2020 and thereby increase its presence in the Asian market. The country targets to lift its coal exports to 390 million tonnes from around 211 million tonnes in 2020, indicating that exports will rise by around 12 million tonnes per annum. In line with the country’s vison, some Russian companies such as Kolmar and Elga intend to ramp up their coal production volumes and port capacities.
Since Russia-India and Australia-India are predominantly Panamax routes, the impact of the recent deal on the demand for Panamax vessels will depend on the port that will supply coking coal to India. Russia has been exporting coal through Murmansk, Vanino, Vostochny and Ust-Luga, of which Vanino and Vostochny are almost equidistant from India, as is Australia, but Murmansk-India (and also Ust-Luga-India) is almost double the distance between India and Australia. As a result, for a given cargo volume, Murmansk-India and Ust-Luga-India should deploy twice the number of vessels than Australia-India, but for Vanino-India or Vostochny-India there will hardly be any addition in the overall vessel demand.
To estimate the influence of the Russia-India deal on vessel demand we assume that all four Russian ports will supply coal to India in equal quantities. At the speed of 11 knots, 40 million tonnes of coking coal trade on Russia-India would employ 94 odd Panamax vessels whereas the same cargo volume on Australia-India would need 66 Panamaxes, implying an increase of 28 Panamax vessels annually.
However, we believe the entire agreement between Russia and India for 40 million tonnes of annual coking coal trade will be difficult to materialise. The share of coking coal in Russia’s overall coal exports has been limited to 12-14% over the past five years. This means that even if the country’s coal exports will rise by 12 million tonnes per annum, coking coal exports could rise by just 1-2 million tonnes annually.
Moreover, even if the country is able to meet the agreed quantity, it seems that Russia would supply a major proportion of the coking coal through port Vanino as the country’s major coal companies are increasing their coal handling capacity at this port. While Kolmar group plans to lift the annual coal handling capacity of the VaninoTransUgol terminal by 12 million tonnes by 2023, Albert Avdolyan plans to construct a coal terminal at Vanino with annual handling capacity of 30 million tonnes. As mentioned above vessel demand on Vanino-India will be no different from that on Australia-India and any shift of cargo away from Australia-India and towards Vanino-India will have little impact on dry bulk shipping demand.
Source: Drewry
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Friday, 21 January 22
CHINA'S POWER TRADING TARIFFS TO RISE IN 2022 - FITCH RATINGS
Rising trading volume and higher-than-benchmark tariffs in the 2022 bilateral contracts signed between Chinese power generation companies (gencos) ...
Thursday, 20 January 22
CHINESE COAL JUMPS OVER 6% ON PRE-HOLIDAY SUPPLY WORRY - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal futures soared more than 6% on Wednesday, hitting a level last seen in late November as investors grew concerned over ti ...
Thursday, 20 January 22
VIETNAM: COAL SECTOR SEES POSITIVE PROSPECT IN 2022 - VNA
With many signs of rising demand for coal in various economic sectors in 2022, the Vietnam National Coal – Mineral Industries Group (Vinacomi ...
Wednesday, 19 January 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Since the beginning of the year, we have been witnessing the BDI correcting downwards with sizable drops across all segments. Latest similar levels ...
Sunday, 09 January 22
INDONESIA MINISTER SAYS 'EMERGENCY OVER' ON COAL SUPPLY CRUNCH - REUTERS
Indonesia’s power emergency which has triggered a coal export ban is over but the government will still continue to discuss policies in this ...
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- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The University of Queensland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
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