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Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Drewry believes this trade will have little or no impact on the demand for dry bulk shipping.
The Indian government plans to sharply lift the domestic production capacity of crude steel which could lead to even higher coking coal imports as it is a key raw material for steel production. The imports of coking coal have been rising over the past few years. While Australia is the predominant supplier of coking coal to India, accounting for around 80% of country’s imports of the commodity, the US and Canada supply the balance with Russia’s share at a negligible 1-2% annually. In 2020, the latter exported 1.2 million tonnes of coking coal to India.
As Indian steel mills are highly reliant on Australian coking coal, any disruption in the supply of the commodity in Australia could affect India’s steel production. The recent deal with Russia could be seen as an attempt by Indian coking coal traders to diversify their import portfolio and could eat into the share of Australian coal, leaving the shares of the US and Canada untouched.
Meanwhile, the Russian government plans to lift the country’s coal production to 668 million tonnes by 2035 from around 400 million tonnes in 2020 and thereby increase its presence in the Asian market. The country targets to lift its coal exports to 390 million tonnes from around 211 million tonnes in 2020, indicating that exports will rise by around 12 million tonnes per annum. In line with the country’s vison, some Russian companies such as Kolmar and Elga intend to ramp up their coal production volumes and port capacities.
Since Russia-India and Australia-India are predominantly Panamax routes, the impact of the recent deal on the demand for Panamax vessels will depend on the port that will supply coking coal to India. Russia has been exporting coal through Murmansk, Vanino, Vostochny and Ust-Luga, of which Vanino and Vostochny are almost equidistant from India, as is Australia, but Murmansk-India (and also Ust-Luga-India) is almost double the distance between India and Australia. As a result, for a given cargo volume, Murmansk-India and Ust-Luga-India should deploy twice the number of vessels than Australia-India, but for Vanino-India or Vostochny-India there will hardly be any addition in the overall vessel demand.
To estimate the influence of the Russia-India deal on vessel demand we assume that all four Russian ports will supply coal to India in equal quantities. At the speed of 11 knots, 40 million tonnes of coking coal trade on Russia-India would employ 94 odd Panamax vessels whereas the same cargo volume on Australia-India would need 66 Panamaxes, implying an increase of 28 Panamax vessels annually.
However, we believe the entire agreement between Russia and India for 40 million tonnes of annual coking coal trade will be difficult to materialise. The share of coking coal in Russia’s overall coal exports has been limited to 12-14% over the past five years. This means that even if the country’s coal exports will rise by 12 million tonnes per annum, coking coal exports could rise by just 1-2 million tonnes annually.
Moreover, even if the country is able to meet the agreed quantity, it seems that Russia would supply a major proportion of the coking coal through port Vanino as the country’s major coal companies are increasing their coal handling capacity at this port. While Kolmar group plans to lift the annual coal handling capacity of the VaninoTransUgol terminal by 12 million tonnes by 2023, Albert Avdolyan plans to construct a coal terminal at Vanino with annual handling capacity of 30 million tonnes. As mentioned above vessel demand on Vanino-India will be no different from that on Australia-India and any shift of cargo away from Australia-India and towards Vanino-India will have little impact on dry bulk shipping demand.
Source: Drewry
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Tuesday, 16 November 21
INDONESIA’S 2022 COAL USE FOR POWER GENERATION SET TO RISE 3% - REUTERS
Indonesia’s coal consumption for power generation is likely to rise by 3.1% next year compared to 2021, the head of the country’s state ...
Tuesday, 16 November 21
CHINA'S MONTHLY COAL OUTPUT RISES TO HIGHEST SINCE MARCH 2015 - REUTERS
China’s October coal output rose to the highest since at least March 2015, after Beijing approved a raft of coal mine expansions to tame reco ...
Friday, 12 November 21
ASIA COAL POWER PIPELINE TO SHRINK BY TWO THIRDS AFTER CHINA FINANCE CUT - REUTERS
Asia’s pipeline of proposed coal-fired power plants is expected to shrink from 65 gigawatts to 22 gigawatts following China’s pledge to ...
Friday, 12 November 21
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE TOPS $215 A TON; THE HIGHEST COAL PRICE IN HISTORY
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference in a steep climb for most of second half of 2021 as it reached a pinnacle of $215.01 in November 2021 ...
Thursday, 11 November 21
ASIA COAL POWER PIPELINE TO SHRINK BY TWO THIRDS AFTER CHINA FINANCE CUT - REUTERS
Asia’s pipeline of proposed coal-fired power plants is expected to shrink from 65 gigawatts to 22 gigawatts following China’s pledge to ...
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- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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