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Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Drewry believes this trade will have little or no impact on the demand for dry bulk shipping.
The Indian government plans to sharply lift the domestic production capacity of crude steel which could lead to even higher coking coal imports as it is a key raw material for steel production. The imports of coking coal have been rising over the past few years. While Australia is the predominant supplier of coking coal to India, accounting for around 80% of country’s imports of the commodity, the US and Canada supply the balance with Russia’s share at a negligible 1-2% annually. In 2020, the latter exported 1.2 million tonnes of coking coal to India.
As Indian steel mills are highly reliant on Australian coking coal, any disruption in the supply of the commodity in Australia could affect India’s steel production. The recent deal with Russia could be seen as an attempt by Indian coking coal traders to diversify their import portfolio and could eat into the share of Australian coal, leaving the shares of the US and Canada untouched.
Meanwhile, the Russian government plans to lift the country’s coal production to 668 million tonnes by 2035 from around 400 million tonnes in 2020 and thereby increase its presence in the Asian market. The country targets to lift its coal exports to 390 million tonnes from around 211 million tonnes in 2020, indicating that exports will rise by around 12 million tonnes per annum. In line with the country’s vison, some Russian companies such as Kolmar and Elga intend to ramp up their coal production volumes and port capacities.
Since Russia-India and Australia-India are predominantly Panamax routes, the impact of the recent deal on the demand for Panamax vessels will depend on the port that will supply coking coal to India. Russia has been exporting coal through Murmansk, Vanino, Vostochny and Ust-Luga, of which Vanino and Vostochny are almost equidistant from India, as is Australia, but Murmansk-India (and also Ust-Luga-India) is almost double the distance between India and Australia. As a result, for a given cargo volume, Murmansk-India and Ust-Luga-India should deploy twice the number of vessels than Australia-India, but for Vanino-India or Vostochny-India there will hardly be any addition in the overall vessel demand.
To estimate the influence of the Russia-India deal on vessel demand we assume that all four Russian ports will supply coal to India in equal quantities. At the speed of 11 knots, 40 million tonnes of coking coal trade on Russia-India would employ 94 odd Panamax vessels whereas the same cargo volume on Australia-India would need 66 Panamaxes, implying an increase of 28 Panamax vessels annually.
However, we believe the entire agreement between Russia and India for 40 million tonnes of annual coking coal trade will be difficult to materialise. The share of coking coal in Russia’s overall coal exports has been limited to 12-14% over the past five years. This means that even if the country’s coal exports will rise by 12 million tonnes per annum, coking coal exports could rise by just 1-2 million tonnes annually.
Moreover, even if the country is able to meet the agreed quantity, it seems that Russia would supply a major proportion of the coking coal through port Vanino as the country’s major coal companies are increasing their coal handling capacity at this port. While Kolmar group plans to lift the annual coal handling capacity of the VaninoTransUgol terminal by 12 million tonnes by 2023, Albert Avdolyan plans to construct a coal terminal at Vanino with annual handling capacity of 30 million tonnes. As mentioned above vessel demand on Vanino-India will be no different from that on Australia-India and any shift of cargo away from Australia-India and towards Vanino-India will have little impact on dry bulk shipping demand.
Source: Drewry
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Tuesday, 16 November 21
INDONESIA’S 2022 COAL USE FOR POWER GENERATION SET TO RISE 3% - REUTERS
Indonesia’s coal consumption for power generation is likely to rise by 3.1% next year compared to 2021, the head of the country’s state ...
Tuesday, 16 November 21
CHINA'S MONTHLY COAL OUTPUT RISES TO HIGHEST SINCE MARCH 2015 - REUTERS
China’s October coal output rose to the highest since at least March 2015, after Beijing approved a raft of coal mine expansions to tame reco ...
Friday, 12 November 21
ASIA COAL POWER PIPELINE TO SHRINK BY TWO THIRDS AFTER CHINA FINANCE CUT - REUTERS
Asia’s pipeline of proposed coal-fired power plants is expected to shrink from 65 gigawatts to 22 gigawatts following China’s pledge to ...
Friday, 12 November 21
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE TOPS $215 A TON; THE HIGHEST COAL PRICE IN HISTORY
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference in a steep climb for most of second half of 2021 as it reached a pinnacle of $215.01 in November 2021 ...
Thursday, 11 November 21
ASIA COAL POWER PIPELINE TO SHRINK BY TWO THIRDS AFTER CHINA FINANCE CUT - REUTERS
Asia’s pipeline of proposed coal-fired power plants is expected to shrink from 65 gigawatts to 22 gigawatts following China’s pledge to ...
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Australian Coal Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
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