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Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Drewry believes this trade will have little or no impact on the demand for dry bulk shipping.
The Indian government plans to sharply lift the domestic production capacity of crude steel which could lead to even higher coking coal imports as it is a key raw material for steel production. The imports of coking coal have been rising over the past few years. While Australia is the predominant supplier of coking coal to India, accounting for around 80% of country’s imports of the commodity, the US and Canada supply the balance with Russia’s share at a negligible 1-2% annually. In 2020, the latter exported 1.2 million tonnes of coking coal to India.
As Indian steel mills are highly reliant on Australian coking coal, any disruption in the supply of the commodity in Australia could affect India’s steel production. The recent deal with Russia could be seen as an attempt by Indian coking coal traders to diversify their import portfolio and could eat into the share of Australian coal, leaving the shares of the US and Canada untouched.
Meanwhile, the Russian government plans to lift the country’s coal production to 668 million tonnes by 2035 from around 400 million tonnes in 2020 and thereby increase its presence in the Asian market. The country targets to lift its coal exports to 390 million tonnes from around 211 million tonnes in 2020, indicating that exports will rise by around 12 million tonnes per annum. In line with the country’s vison, some Russian companies such as Kolmar and Elga intend to ramp up their coal production volumes and port capacities.
Since Russia-India and Australia-India are predominantly Panamax routes, the impact of the recent deal on the demand for Panamax vessels will depend on the port that will supply coking coal to India. Russia has been exporting coal through Murmansk, Vanino, Vostochny and Ust-Luga, of which Vanino and Vostochny are almost equidistant from India, as is Australia, but Murmansk-India (and also Ust-Luga-India) is almost double the distance between India and Australia. As a result, for a given cargo volume, Murmansk-India and Ust-Luga-India should deploy twice the number of vessels than Australia-India, but for Vanino-India or Vostochny-India there will hardly be any addition in the overall vessel demand.
To estimate the influence of the Russia-India deal on vessel demand we assume that all four Russian ports will supply coal to India in equal quantities. At the speed of 11 knots, 40 million tonnes of coking coal trade on Russia-India would employ 94 odd Panamax vessels whereas the same cargo volume on Australia-India would need 66 Panamaxes, implying an increase of 28 Panamax vessels annually.
However, we believe the entire agreement between Russia and India for 40 million tonnes of annual coking coal trade will be difficult to materialise. The share of coking coal in Russia’s overall coal exports has been limited to 12-14% over the past five years. This means that even if the country’s coal exports will rise by 12 million tonnes per annum, coking coal exports could rise by just 1-2 million tonnes annually.
Moreover, even if the country is able to meet the agreed quantity, it seems that Russia would supply a major proportion of the coking coal through port Vanino as the country’s major coal companies are increasing their coal handling capacity at this port. While Kolmar group plans to lift the annual coal handling capacity of the VaninoTransUgol terminal by 12 million tonnes by 2023, Albert Avdolyan plans to construct a coal terminal at Vanino with annual handling capacity of 30 million tonnes. As mentioned above vessel demand on Vanino-India will be no different from that on Australia-India and any shift of cargo away from Australia-India and towards Vanino-India will have little impact on dry bulk shipping demand.
Source: Drewry
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Wednesday, 03 November 21
CHINA TO LAUNCH NEW DATA MONITORING SYSTEM, TARGETING COAL MARKET SPECULATION, HOARDING - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s top economic planner announced on Sunday a new data system for supervising the implementation of medium- and long-term contracts of c ...
Wednesday, 03 November 21
CHINA’S STATE PLANNER SAYS COAL SUPPLY IMPROVING, PRICES STABILISING - REUTERS
China’s coal supply situation has seen significant improvement with joint efforts from coal producers, logistics and downstream users, while ...
Wednesday, 03 November 21
HIGHER COKING COAL PRICES TO PARE PROFITABILITY OF STEELMAKERS IN SECOND HALF OF FY22 - CRISIL RATINGS
The operating margin of primary steelmakers will reduce by a third to 24-26% in the second half of this fiscal versus the first half as input cost ...
Wednesday, 03 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
November is here and soon the all time seasonal favorite “all I want or Christmas is you” by Mariah Carey will be played in radio stati ...
Monday, 01 November 21
COAL PRICES HAVE FURTHER ROOM TO DROP: TOP ECONOMIC PLANNER - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s top economic planner said coal prices have further room to drop on Friday, as the most traded coal futures dropped to below 1,000 yua ...
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
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