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Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Drewry believes this trade will have little or no impact on the demand for dry bulk shipping.
The Indian government plans to sharply lift the domestic production capacity of crude steel which could lead to even higher coking coal imports as it is a key raw material for steel production. The imports of coking coal have been rising over the past few years. While Australia is the predominant supplier of coking coal to India, accounting for around 80% of country’s imports of the commodity, the US and Canada supply the balance with Russia’s share at a negligible 1-2% annually. In 2020, the latter exported 1.2 million tonnes of coking coal to India.
As Indian steel mills are highly reliant on Australian coking coal, any disruption in the supply of the commodity in Australia could affect India’s steel production. The recent deal with Russia could be seen as an attempt by Indian coking coal traders to diversify their import portfolio and could eat into the share of Australian coal, leaving the shares of the US and Canada untouched.
Meanwhile, the Russian government plans to lift the country’s coal production to 668 million tonnes by 2035 from around 400 million tonnes in 2020 and thereby increase its presence in the Asian market. The country targets to lift its coal exports to 390 million tonnes from around 211 million tonnes in 2020, indicating that exports will rise by around 12 million tonnes per annum. In line with the country’s vison, some Russian companies such as Kolmar and Elga intend to ramp up their coal production volumes and port capacities.
Since Russia-India and Australia-India are predominantly Panamax routes, the impact of the recent deal on the demand for Panamax vessels will depend on the port that will supply coking coal to India. Russia has been exporting coal through Murmansk, Vanino, Vostochny and Ust-Luga, of which Vanino and Vostochny are almost equidistant from India, as is Australia, but Murmansk-India (and also Ust-Luga-India) is almost double the distance between India and Australia. As a result, for a given cargo volume, Murmansk-India and Ust-Luga-India should deploy twice the number of vessels than Australia-India, but for Vanino-India or Vostochny-India there will hardly be any addition in the overall vessel demand.
To estimate the influence of the Russia-India deal on vessel demand we assume that all four Russian ports will supply coal to India in equal quantities. At the speed of 11 knots, 40 million tonnes of coking coal trade on Russia-India would employ 94 odd Panamax vessels whereas the same cargo volume on Australia-India would need 66 Panamaxes, implying an increase of 28 Panamax vessels annually.
However, we believe the entire agreement between Russia and India for 40 million tonnes of annual coking coal trade will be difficult to materialise. The share of coking coal in Russia’s overall coal exports has been limited to 12-14% over the past five years. This means that even if the country’s coal exports will rise by 12 million tonnes per annum, coking coal exports could rise by just 1-2 million tonnes annually.
Moreover, even if the country is able to meet the agreed quantity, it seems that Russia would supply a major proportion of the coking coal through port Vanino as the country’s major coal companies are increasing their coal handling capacity at this port. While Kolmar group plans to lift the annual coal handling capacity of the VaninoTransUgol terminal by 12 million tonnes by 2023, Albert Avdolyan plans to construct a coal terminal at Vanino with annual handling capacity of 30 million tonnes. As mentioned above vessel demand on Vanino-India will be no different from that on Australia-India and any shift of cargo away from Australia-India and towards Vanino-India will have little impact on dry bulk shipping demand.
Source: Drewry
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Thursday, 07 July 22
COAL INDIA'S PRODUCTION SETS RECORD INCREASE OF 29% YOY AT 36 MT IN Q1FY23 - IIFL SECURITIES
Coal India Limited (CIL) has ended April-June quarter FY’23 capping a historic high of 29% yoy output growth, compared to same quarter FY&rsq ...
Wednesday, 06 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Following the 3rd Decarbonizing Shipping Forum, held in Hamburg on June 2022, there has been a meaningful resurgence of discussions within the ship ...
Tuesday, 05 July 22
WHY ARE VLSFO PRICES SO HIGH, ESPECIALLY IN SINGAPORE? - STEVE CHRISTY, INTEGR8 FUELS
Tightness in products still trumps talks of recession
Last month we wrote about the fears of recession versus the tightness in product markets ...
Tuesday, 05 July 22
ADANI ENTERPRISES LOWEST BIDDER IN COAL INDIA'S IMPORT TENDER: REPORT - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal India Ltd floated its first import tender on behalf of power companies, where Adani Enterprises Ltd came out to be the lowest bidder, a report ...
Tuesday, 05 July 22
CHINA POLICY KEY FOR IRON ORE OUTLOOK - ING
China’s covid lockdowns and recessionary risks hit iron ore
Iron ore prices have fallen significantly from their year-to-date high of US$ ...
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
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