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Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Drewry believes this trade will have little or no impact on the demand for dry bulk shipping.
The Indian government plans to sharply lift the domestic production capacity of crude steel which could lead to even higher coking coal imports as it is a key raw material for steel production. The imports of coking coal have been rising over the past few years. While Australia is the predominant supplier of coking coal to India, accounting for around 80% of country’s imports of the commodity, the US and Canada supply the balance with Russia’s share at a negligible 1-2% annually. In 2020, the latter exported 1.2 million tonnes of coking coal to India.
As Indian steel mills are highly reliant on Australian coking coal, any disruption in the supply of the commodity in Australia could affect India’s steel production. The recent deal with Russia could be seen as an attempt by Indian coking coal traders to diversify their import portfolio and could eat into the share of Australian coal, leaving the shares of the US and Canada untouched.
Meanwhile, the Russian government plans to lift the country’s coal production to 668 million tonnes by 2035 from around 400 million tonnes in 2020 and thereby increase its presence in the Asian market. The country targets to lift its coal exports to 390 million tonnes from around 211 million tonnes in 2020, indicating that exports will rise by around 12 million tonnes per annum. In line with the country’s vison, some Russian companies such as Kolmar and Elga intend to ramp up their coal production volumes and port capacities.
Since Russia-India and Australia-India are predominantly Panamax routes, the impact of the recent deal on the demand for Panamax vessels will depend on the port that will supply coking coal to India. Russia has been exporting coal through Murmansk, Vanino, Vostochny and Ust-Luga, of which Vanino and Vostochny are almost equidistant from India, as is Australia, but Murmansk-India (and also Ust-Luga-India) is almost double the distance between India and Australia. As a result, for a given cargo volume, Murmansk-India and Ust-Luga-India should deploy twice the number of vessels than Australia-India, but for Vanino-India or Vostochny-India there will hardly be any addition in the overall vessel demand.
To estimate the influence of the Russia-India deal on vessel demand we assume that all four Russian ports will supply coal to India in equal quantities. At the speed of 11 knots, 40 million tonnes of coking coal trade on Russia-India would employ 94 odd Panamax vessels whereas the same cargo volume on Australia-India would need 66 Panamaxes, implying an increase of 28 Panamax vessels annually.
However, we believe the entire agreement between Russia and India for 40 million tonnes of annual coking coal trade will be difficult to materialise. The share of coking coal in Russia’s overall coal exports has been limited to 12-14% over the past five years. This means that even if the country’s coal exports will rise by 12 million tonnes per annum, coking coal exports could rise by just 1-2 million tonnes annually.
Moreover, even if the country is able to meet the agreed quantity, it seems that Russia would supply a major proportion of the coking coal through port Vanino as the country’s major coal companies are increasing their coal handling capacity at this port. While Kolmar group plans to lift the annual coal handling capacity of the VaninoTransUgol terminal by 12 million tonnes by 2023, Albert Avdolyan plans to construct a coal terminal at Vanino with annual handling capacity of 30 million tonnes. As mentioned above vessel demand on Vanino-India will be no different from that on Australia-India and any shift of cargo away from Australia-India and towards Vanino-India will have little impact on dry bulk shipping demand.
Source: Drewry
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Thursday, 30 June 22
FINANCIAL GAINS SUPPORT COAL TRANSITION - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Support for the shift away from coal dependency continues to mount, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) calculating that the move would gene ...
Thursday, 30 June 22
WHY ARE LNG SHIPPING STOCKS RESILIENT? - DREWRY
LNG shipping stocks are proving resilient despite uncertainties about growth in global GDP, high inflation and the ongoing geopolitical crisis caus ...
Thursday, 30 June 22
SPOT AUSTRALIAN THERMAL COAL HAS SURGED, BUT CONTRACT PRICE IS KEY - REUTERS
The spot price of Australian thermal coal is higher than that of coking coal, an unprecedented situation that highlights just how the global market ...
Thursday, 30 June 22
SHANXI PROVINCE RAISES ANNUAL COAL OUTPUT TO 1.3 BILLION TONS TO ENSURE CHINA’S ENERGY SUPPLY - GLOBAL TIMES
North China’s Shanxi Province, a major coal-producing region, recently announced a move to increase its annual coal production output by 107 ...
Thursday, 30 June 22
DIVERGENCE BETWEEN HIGH- AND LOW-GRADE THERMAL COAL PRICES IN APAC TO NARROW - FITCH RATINGS
Prices between high- and low-grade thermal coal in Asia-Pacific (APAC) have diverged since late March 2022, but Fitch Ratings expects the gap to na ...
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- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- White Energy Company Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Parliament of New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
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