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Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Drewry believes this trade will have little or no impact on the demand for dry bulk shipping.
The Indian government plans to sharply lift the domestic production capacity of crude steel which could lead to even higher coking coal imports as it is a key raw material for steel production. The imports of coking coal have been rising over the past few years. While Australia is the predominant supplier of coking coal to India, accounting for around 80% of country’s imports of the commodity, the US and Canada supply the balance with Russia’s share at a negligible 1-2% annually. In 2020, the latter exported 1.2 million tonnes of coking coal to India.
As Indian steel mills are highly reliant on Australian coking coal, any disruption in the supply of the commodity in Australia could affect India’s steel production. The recent deal with Russia could be seen as an attempt by Indian coking coal traders to diversify their import portfolio and could eat into the share of Australian coal, leaving the shares of the US and Canada untouched.
Meanwhile, the Russian government plans to lift the country’s coal production to 668 million tonnes by 2035 from around 400 million tonnes in 2020 and thereby increase its presence in the Asian market. The country targets to lift its coal exports to 390 million tonnes from around 211 million tonnes in 2020, indicating that exports will rise by around 12 million tonnes per annum. In line with the country’s vison, some Russian companies such as Kolmar and Elga intend to ramp up their coal production volumes and port capacities.
Since Russia-India and Australia-India are predominantly Panamax routes, the impact of the recent deal on the demand for Panamax vessels will depend on the port that will supply coking coal to India. Russia has been exporting coal through Murmansk, Vanino, Vostochny and Ust-Luga, of which Vanino and Vostochny are almost equidistant from India, as is Australia, but Murmansk-India (and also Ust-Luga-India) is almost double the distance between India and Australia. As a result, for a given cargo volume, Murmansk-India and Ust-Luga-India should deploy twice the number of vessels than Australia-India, but for Vanino-India or Vostochny-India there will hardly be any addition in the overall vessel demand.
To estimate the influence of the Russia-India deal on vessel demand we assume that all four Russian ports will supply coal to India in equal quantities. At the speed of 11 knots, 40 million tonnes of coking coal trade on Russia-India would employ 94 odd Panamax vessels whereas the same cargo volume on Australia-India would need 66 Panamaxes, implying an increase of 28 Panamax vessels annually.
However, we believe the entire agreement between Russia and India for 40 million tonnes of annual coking coal trade will be difficult to materialise. The share of coking coal in Russia’s overall coal exports has been limited to 12-14% over the past five years. This means that even if the country’s coal exports will rise by 12 million tonnes per annum, coking coal exports could rise by just 1-2 million tonnes annually.
Moreover, even if the country is able to meet the agreed quantity, it seems that Russia would supply a major proportion of the coking coal through port Vanino as the country’s major coal companies are increasing their coal handling capacity at this port. While Kolmar group plans to lift the annual coal handling capacity of the VaninoTransUgol terminal by 12 million tonnes by 2023, Albert Avdolyan plans to construct a coal terminal at Vanino with annual handling capacity of 30 million tonnes. As mentioned above vessel demand on Vanino-India will be no different from that on Australia-India and any shift of cargo away from Australia-India and towards Vanino-India will have little impact on dry bulk shipping demand.
Source: Drewry
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Thursday, 30 June 22
FINANCIAL GAINS SUPPORT COAL TRANSITION - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Support for the shift away from coal dependency continues to mount, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) calculating that the move would gene ...
Thursday, 30 June 22
WHY ARE LNG SHIPPING STOCKS RESILIENT? - DREWRY
LNG shipping stocks are proving resilient despite uncertainties about growth in global GDP, high inflation and the ongoing geopolitical crisis caus ...
Thursday, 30 June 22
SPOT AUSTRALIAN THERMAL COAL HAS SURGED, BUT CONTRACT PRICE IS KEY - REUTERS
The spot price of Australian thermal coal is higher than that of coking coal, an unprecedented situation that highlights just how the global market ...
Thursday, 30 June 22
SHANXI PROVINCE RAISES ANNUAL COAL OUTPUT TO 1.3 BILLION TONS TO ENSURE CHINA’S ENERGY SUPPLY - GLOBAL TIMES
North China’s Shanxi Province, a major coal-producing region, recently announced a move to increase its annual coal production output by 107 ...
Thursday, 30 June 22
DIVERGENCE BETWEEN HIGH- AND LOW-GRADE THERMAL COAL PRICES IN APAC TO NARROW - FITCH RATINGS
Prices between high- and low-grade thermal coal in Asia-Pacific (APAC) have diverged since late March 2022, but Fitch Ratings expects the gap to na ...
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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