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Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Drewry believes this trade will have little or no impact on the demand for dry bulk shipping.
The Indian government plans to sharply lift the domestic production capacity of crude steel which could lead to even higher coking coal imports as it is a key raw material for steel production. The imports of coking coal have been rising over the past few years. While Australia is the predominant supplier of coking coal to India, accounting for around 80% of country’s imports of the commodity, the US and Canada supply the balance with Russia’s share at a negligible 1-2% annually. In 2020, the latter exported 1.2 million tonnes of coking coal to India.
As Indian steel mills are highly reliant on Australian coking coal, any disruption in the supply of the commodity in Australia could affect India’s steel production. The recent deal with Russia could be seen as an attempt by Indian coking coal traders to diversify their import portfolio and could eat into the share of Australian coal, leaving the shares of the US and Canada untouched.
Meanwhile, the Russian government plans to lift the country’s coal production to 668 million tonnes by 2035 from around 400 million tonnes in 2020 and thereby increase its presence in the Asian market. The country targets to lift its coal exports to 390 million tonnes from around 211 million tonnes in 2020, indicating that exports will rise by around 12 million tonnes per annum. In line with the country’s vison, some Russian companies such as Kolmar and Elga intend to ramp up their coal production volumes and port capacities.
Since Russia-India and Australia-India are predominantly Panamax routes, the impact of the recent deal on the demand for Panamax vessels will depend on the port that will supply coking coal to India. Russia has been exporting coal through Murmansk, Vanino, Vostochny and Ust-Luga, of which Vanino and Vostochny are almost equidistant from India, as is Australia, but Murmansk-India (and also Ust-Luga-India) is almost double the distance between India and Australia. As a result, for a given cargo volume, Murmansk-India and Ust-Luga-India should deploy twice the number of vessels than Australia-India, but for Vanino-India or Vostochny-India there will hardly be any addition in the overall vessel demand.
To estimate the influence of the Russia-India deal on vessel demand we assume that all four Russian ports will supply coal to India in equal quantities. At the speed of 11 knots, 40 million tonnes of coking coal trade on Russia-India would employ 94 odd Panamax vessels whereas the same cargo volume on Australia-India would need 66 Panamaxes, implying an increase of 28 Panamax vessels annually.
However, we believe the entire agreement between Russia and India for 40 million tonnes of annual coking coal trade will be difficult to materialise. The share of coking coal in Russia’s overall coal exports has been limited to 12-14% over the past five years. This means that even if the country’s coal exports will rise by 12 million tonnes per annum, coking coal exports could rise by just 1-2 million tonnes annually.
Moreover, even if the country is able to meet the agreed quantity, it seems that Russia would supply a major proportion of the coking coal through port Vanino as the country’s major coal companies are increasing their coal handling capacity at this port. While Kolmar group plans to lift the annual coal handling capacity of the VaninoTransUgol terminal by 12 million tonnes by 2023, Albert Avdolyan plans to construct a coal terminal at Vanino with annual handling capacity of 30 million tonnes. As mentioned above vessel demand on Vanino-India will be no different from that on Australia-India and any shift of cargo away from Australia-India and towards Vanino-India will have little impact on dry bulk shipping demand.
Source: Drewry
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Monday, 04 July 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE SLIGHTLY DOWN IN JULY
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for July delivery drops 1.52 per cent month on month.
The Indonesian Coal Price Refere ...
Sunday, 03 July 22
CHINESE VICE PREMIER STRESSES CLEAN, EFFICIENT USE OF COAL - XINHUA
Chinese Vice Premier Han Zheng has stressed efforts to promote the clean and efficient use of coal, and pursue green, low-carbon and high-quality d ...
Sunday, 03 July 22
SOVEREIGN SECTOR OUTLOOK REVISED TO NEUTRAL ON UKRAINE WAR IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
The deterioration in global sovereign credit conditions this year relative to our expectations at end-2021 has caused Fitch Ratings to change its g ...
Saturday, 02 July 22
GLOBAL SEABORNE COAL EXPORTS IN 2021 INCREASED BY 4.4% Y-O-Y TO 1147 MLN TONNES - BANCHERO COSTA
In the full 12 months of 2021, global seaborne coal exports increased by +4.4% y-o-y to 1147 mln tonnes, from 1099 mln tonnes in 2020, according to ...
Friday, 01 July 22
INDIA'S TOP CEMENT MAKER PAYING FOR RUSSIAN COAL IN CHINESE YUAN - REUTERS
India’s biggest cement producer, UltraTech Cement ULTC.NS, is importing a cargo of Russian coal and paying using Chinese yuan, according to a ...
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Planning Commission, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- White Energy Company Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
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