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Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Drewry believes this trade will have little or no impact on the demand for dry bulk shipping.
The Indian government plans to sharply lift the domestic production capacity of crude steel which could lead to even higher coking coal imports as it is a key raw material for steel production. The imports of coking coal have been rising over the past few years. While Australia is the predominant supplier of coking coal to India, accounting for around 80% of country’s imports of the commodity, the US and Canada supply the balance with Russia’s share at a negligible 1-2% annually. In 2020, the latter exported 1.2 million tonnes of coking coal to India.
As Indian steel mills are highly reliant on Australian coking coal, any disruption in the supply of the commodity in Australia could affect India’s steel production. The recent deal with Russia could be seen as an attempt by Indian coking coal traders to diversify their import portfolio and could eat into the share of Australian coal, leaving the shares of the US and Canada untouched.
Meanwhile, the Russian government plans to lift the country’s coal production to 668 million tonnes by 2035 from around 400 million tonnes in 2020 and thereby increase its presence in the Asian market. The country targets to lift its coal exports to 390 million tonnes from around 211 million tonnes in 2020, indicating that exports will rise by around 12 million tonnes per annum. In line with the country’s vison, some Russian companies such as Kolmar and Elga intend to ramp up their coal production volumes and port capacities.
Since Russia-India and Australia-India are predominantly Panamax routes, the impact of the recent deal on the demand for Panamax vessels will depend on the port that will supply coking coal to India. Russia has been exporting coal through Murmansk, Vanino, Vostochny and Ust-Luga, of which Vanino and Vostochny are almost equidistant from India, as is Australia, but Murmansk-India (and also Ust-Luga-India) is almost double the distance between India and Australia. As a result, for a given cargo volume, Murmansk-India and Ust-Luga-India should deploy twice the number of vessels than Australia-India, but for Vanino-India or Vostochny-India there will hardly be any addition in the overall vessel demand.
To estimate the influence of the Russia-India deal on vessel demand we assume that all four Russian ports will supply coal to India in equal quantities. At the speed of 11 knots, 40 million tonnes of coking coal trade on Russia-India would employ 94 odd Panamax vessels whereas the same cargo volume on Australia-India would need 66 Panamaxes, implying an increase of 28 Panamax vessels annually.
However, we believe the entire agreement between Russia and India for 40 million tonnes of annual coking coal trade will be difficult to materialise. The share of coking coal in Russia’s overall coal exports has been limited to 12-14% over the past five years. This means that even if the country’s coal exports will rise by 12 million tonnes per annum, coking coal exports could rise by just 1-2 million tonnes annually.
Moreover, even if the country is able to meet the agreed quantity, it seems that Russia would supply a major proportion of the coking coal through port Vanino as the country’s major coal companies are increasing their coal handling capacity at this port. While Kolmar group plans to lift the annual coal handling capacity of the VaninoTransUgol terminal by 12 million tonnes by 2023, Albert Avdolyan plans to construct a coal terminal at Vanino with annual handling capacity of 30 million tonnes. As mentioned above vessel demand on Vanino-India will be no different from that on Australia-India and any shift of cargo away from Australia-India and towards Vanino-India will have little impact on dry bulk shipping demand.
Source: Drewry
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Wednesday, 13 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Taking the previous market insight a step further, market sentiment remains bullish regarding the overall ROI of scrubbers, facing tailwinds from a ...
Friday, 08 July 22
AUSTRALIAN COAL PRICE BREAKS AGAIN LEVEL US$ 400/TON!, UP AROUND 4% - CNBC INDONESIA
Coal prices shot up again and crossed the level of US$ 400 per ton. On Thursday (7/7/2022) trading, the selling price of August contract closed at ...
Friday, 08 July 22
INDONESIA MULLS MORE FREQUENT SETTING OF CRUDE PALM OIL REFERENCE PRICE - REUTERS
Indonesia is considering setting its crude palm oil (CPO) export reference price every two weeks instead of monthly, a senior trade ministry offici ...
Friday, 08 July 22
BUNKER PRICES EXPECTED TO RECOVER LOST GROUND NEXT WEEK - SERGEY IVANOV, MABUX
Over the Week 27, the world bunker indices showed a sharp decline, primarily due to the fall in oil prices on July 05. The 380 HSFO index fell by 5 ...
Thursday, 07 July 22
NTPC MINES 61% MORE COAL AT 4.22 MN METRIC TONNES IN APRIL-JUNE: PTI
State-owned power giant NTPC on Tuesday said that its coal output grew by 61 per cent to Rs 42.40 lakh metric tonnes in April-June quarter from 26. ...
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- Marubeni Corporation - India
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- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Planning Commission, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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