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Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Drewry believes this trade will have little or no impact on the demand for dry bulk shipping.
The Indian government plans to sharply lift the domestic production capacity of crude steel which could lead to even higher coking coal imports as it is a key raw material for steel production. The imports of coking coal have been rising over the past few years. While Australia is the predominant supplier of coking coal to India, accounting for around 80% of country’s imports of the commodity, the US and Canada supply the balance with Russia’s share at a negligible 1-2% annually. In 2020, the latter exported 1.2 million tonnes of coking coal to India.
As Indian steel mills are highly reliant on Australian coking coal, any disruption in the supply of the commodity in Australia could affect India’s steel production. The recent deal with Russia could be seen as an attempt by Indian coking coal traders to diversify their import portfolio and could eat into the share of Australian coal, leaving the shares of the US and Canada untouched.
Meanwhile, the Russian government plans to lift the country’s coal production to 668 million tonnes by 2035 from around 400 million tonnes in 2020 and thereby increase its presence in the Asian market. The country targets to lift its coal exports to 390 million tonnes from around 211 million tonnes in 2020, indicating that exports will rise by around 12 million tonnes per annum. In line with the country’s vison, some Russian companies such as Kolmar and Elga intend to ramp up their coal production volumes and port capacities.
Since Russia-India and Australia-India are predominantly Panamax routes, the impact of the recent deal on the demand for Panamax vessels will depend on the port that will supply coking coal to India. Russia has been exporting coal through Murmansk, Vanino, Vostochny and Ust-Luga, of which Vanino and Vostochny are almost equidistant from India, as is Australia, but Murmansk-India (and also Ust-Luga-India) is almost double the distance between India and Australia. As a result, for a given cargo volume, Murmansk-India and Ust-Luga-India should deploy twice the number of vessels than Australia-India, but for Vanino-India or Vostochny-India there will hardly be any addition in the overall vessel demand.
To estimate the influence of the Russia-India deal on vessel demand we assume that all four Russian ports will supply coal to India in equal quantities. At the speed of 11 knots, 40 million tonnes of coking coal trade on Russia-India would employ 94 odd Panamax vessels whereas the same cargo volume on Australia-India would need 66 Panamaxes, implying an increase of 28 Panamax vessels annually.
However, we believe the entire agreement between Russia and India for 40 million tonnes of annual coking coal trade will be difficult to materialise. The share of coking coal in Russia’s overall coal exports has been limited to 12-14% over the past five years. This means that even if the country’s coal exports will rise by 12 million tonnes per annum, coking coal exports could rise by just 1-2 million tonnes annually.
Moreover, even if the country is able to meet the agreed quantity, it seems that Russia would supply a major proportion of the coking coal through port Vanino as the country’s major coal companies are increasing their coal handling capacity at this port. While Kolmar group plans to lift the annual coal handling capacity of the VaninoTransUgol terminal by 12 million tonnes by 2023, Albert Avdolyan plans to construct a coal terminal at Vanino with annual handling capacity of 30 million tonnes. As mentioned above vessel demand on Vanino-India will be no different from that on Australia-India and any shift of cargo away from Australia-India and towards Vanino-India will have little impact on dry bulk shipping demand.
Source: Drewry
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Tuesday, 19 July 22
SEEING RED? - WOOD MACKENZIE
What a Republican mid-term victory could mean for US energy and climate policy
According to current polling the Republican Party has ...
Thursday, 14 July 22
INDIA'S COAL IMPORTS HIT RECORD HIGH IN JUNE - REUTERS
India's coal imports hit a record high in June despite high global prices, data from three trade sources and Refinitiv ship tracking showed, as ...
Thursday, 14 July 22
CHINA'S JUNE COAL IMPORTS SLUMP AS TRADERS SHUN EXPENSIVE OVERSEAS CARGOES - REUTERS
China’s coal imports fell 33% in June from a year ago, with traders turning down expensive overseas cargoes in favor of domestic ones with ca ...
Wednesday, 13 July 22
KOWEPO TO IMPORT 2.79 MILLION TONS OF LOW TO MEDIUM COAL
COALspot.com: Korea Western Power Co., Ltd. (KOWEPO) has issued an International tender for Total 1360k MT of Min.4400 kcal/kg NCV coal and Total 1 ...
Wednesday, 13 July 22
HAVE MINERS MISSED THE BOAT TO INVEST AND GET AHEAD OF THE ENERGY TRANSITION? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Miners are in rude health, benefiting from economic stimuli, the post-pandemic recovery and associated supply constraints. Initially the Ukraine wa ...
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- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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- White Energy Company Limited
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
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- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
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- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
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- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
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