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Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Drewry believes this trade will have little or no impact on the demand for dry bulk shipping.
The Indian government plans to sharply lift the domestic production capacity of crude steel which could lead to even higher coking coal imports as it is a key raw material for steel production. The imports of coking coal have been rising over the past few years. While Australia is the predominant supplier of coking coal to India, accounting for around 80% of country’s imports of the commodity, the US and Canada supply the balance with Russia’s share at a negligible 1-2% annually. In 2020, the latter exported 1.2 million tonnes of coking coal to India.
As Indian steel mills are highly reliant on Australian coking coal, any disruption in the supply of the commodity in Australia could affect India’s steel production. The recent deal with Russia could be seen as an attempt by Indian coking coal traders to diversify their import portfolio and could eat into the share of Australian coal, leaving the shares of the US and Canada untouched.
Meanwhile, the Russian government plans to lift the country’s coal production to 668 million tonnes by 2035 from around 400 million tonnes in 2020 and thereby increase its presence in the Asian market. The country targets to lift its coal exports to 390 million tonnes from around 211 million tonnes in 2020, indicating that exports will rise by around 12 million tonnes per annum. In line with the country’s vison, some Russian companies such as Kolmar and Elga intend to ramp up their coal production volumes and port capacities.
Since Russia-India and Australia-India are predominantly Panamax routes, the impact of the recent deal on the demand for Panamax vessels will depend on the port that will supply coking coal to India. Russia has been exporting coal through Murmansk, Vanino, Vostochny and Ust-Luga, of which Vanino and Vostochny are almost equidistant from India, as is Australia, but Murmansk-India (and also Ust-Luga-India) is almost double the distance between India and Australia. As a result, for a given cargo volume, Murmansk-India and Ust-Luga-India should deploy twice the number of vessels than Australia-India, but for Vanino-India or Vostochny-India there will hardly be any addition in the overall vessel demand.
To estimate the influence of the Russia-India deal on vessel demand we assume that all four Russian ports will supply coal to India in equal quantities. At the speed of 11 knots, 40 million tonnes of coking coal trade on Russia-India would employ 94 odd Panamax vessels whereas the same cargo volume on Australia-India would need 66 Panamaxes, implying an increase of 28 Panamax vessels annually.
However, we believe the entire agreement between Russia and India for 40 million tonnes of annual coking coal trade will be difficult to materialise. The share of coking coal in Russia’s overall coal exports has been limited to 12-14% over the past five years. This means that even if the country’s coal exports will rise by 12 million tonnes per annum, coking coal exports could rise by just 1-2 million tonnes annually.
Moreover, even if the country is able to meet the agreed quantity, it seems that Russia would supply a major proportion of the coking coal through port Vanino as the country’s major coal companies are increasing their coal handling capacity at this port. While Kolmar group plans to lift the annual coal handling capacity of the VaninoTransUgol terminal by 12 million tonnes by 2023, Albert Avdolyan plans to construct a coal terminal at Vanino with annual handling capacity of 30 million tonnes. As mentioned above vessel demand on Vanino-India will be no different from that on Australia-India and any shift of cargo away from Australia-India and towards Vanino-India will have little impact on dry bulk shipping demand.
Source: Drewry
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Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per da ...
Friday, 22 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Faced with uncertainty regarding the most cost-efficient alternative fuels and the future dominant method to reduce their greenhouse emissions, man ...
Friday, 22 July 22
YANCOAL AUSTRALIA CUTS 2022 COAL OUTPUT VIEW AS FLOODS, COVID BITE - REUTERS
Coal miner Yancoal Australia Ltd YAL.AX cut its 2022 output forecast on Wednesday, signalling a hit from higher-than-expected rainfall, COVID-19-le ...
Wednesday, 20 July 22
BOOST FOR BIOFUELS AS IMO REMOVES REGULATORY HURDLE - GARD
MARPOL Annex VI regulations were written for petroleum derived fuels but also apply to biofuels. It has been a challenge to meet the regulatory req ...
Wednesday, 20 July 22
INDONESIA’S COAL EXPORTS TO THE EU INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY RECENTLY
European countries have increased coal imports from Indonesia due to the energy crisis that hit the region after Russia cuts gas exports to Europe. ...
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- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Planning Commission, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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