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Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Drewry believes this trade will have little or no impact on the demand for dry bulk shipping.
The Indian government plans to sharply lift the domestic production capacity of crude steel which could lead to even higher coking coal imports as it is a key raw material for steel production. The imports of coking coal have been rising over the past few years. While Australia is the predominant supplier of coking coal to India, accounting for around 80% of country’s imports of the commodity, the US and Canada supply the balance with Russia’s share at a negligible 1-2% annually. In 2020, the latter exported 1.2 million tonnes of coking coal to India.
As Indian steel mills are highly reliant on Australian coking coal, any disruption in the supply of the commodity in Australia could affect India’s steel production. The recent deal with Russia could be seen as an attempt by Indian coking coal traders to diversify their import portfolio and could eat into the share of Australian coal, leaving the shares of the US and Canada untouched.
Meanwhile, the Russian government plans to lift the country’s coal production to 668 million tonnes by 2035 from around 400 million tonnes in 2020 and thereby increase its presence in the Asian market. The country targets to lift its coal exports to 390 million tonnes from around 211 million tonnes in 2020, indicating that exports will rise by around 12 million tonnes per annum. In line with the country’s vison, some Russian companies such as Kolmar and Elga intend to ramp up their coal production volumes and port capacities.
Since Russia-India and Australia-India are predominantly Panamax routes, the impact of the recent deal on the demand for Panamax vessels will depend on the port that will supply coking coal to India. Russia has been exporting coal through Murmansk, Vanino, Vostochny and Ust-Luga, of which Vanino and Vostochny are almost equidistant from India, as is Australia, but Murmansk-India (and also Ust-Luga-India) is almost double the distance between India and Australia. As a result, for a given cargo volume, Murmansk-India and Ust-Luga-India should deploy twice the number of vessels than Australia-India, but for Vanino-India or Vostochny-India there will hardly be any addition in the overall vessel demand.
To estimate the influence of the Russia-India deal on vessel demand we assume that all four Russian ports will supply coal to India in equal quantities. At the speed of 11 knots, 40 million tonnes of coking coal trade on Russia-India would employ 94 odd Panamax vessels whereas the same cargo volume on Australia-India would need 66 Panamaxes, implying an increase of 28 Panamax vessels annually.
However, we believe the entire agreement between Russia and India for 40 million tonnes of annual coking coal trade will be difficult to materialise. The share of coking coal in Russia’s overall coal exports has been limited to 12-14% over the past five years. This means that even if the country’s coal exports will rise by 12 million tonnes per annum, coking coal exports could rise by just 1-2 million tonnes annually.
Moreover, even if the country is able to meet the agreed quantity, it seems that Russia would supply a major proportion of the coking coal through port Vanino as the country’s major coal companies are increasing their coal handling capacity at this port. While Kolmar group plans to lift the annual coal handling capacity of the VaninoTransUgol terminal by 12 million tonnes by 2023, Albert Avdolyan plans to construct a coal terminal at Vanino with annual handling capacity of 30 million tonnes. As mentioned above vessel demand on Vanino-India will be no different from that on Australia-India and any shift of cargo away from Australia-India and towards Vanino-India will have little impact on dry bulk shipping demand.
Source: Drewry
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Tuesday, 19 July 22
DRY BULK MARKET: CAPESIZE MARKET FIRMS THIS WEEK - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
Firmer sentiment across both basins pushed the Capesize 5TC route average above the $20,000 threshold this week, closing at $24,209. A ...
Tuesday, 19 July 22
WHY SHIPPING MIGHT BE ABOUT TO GET A LITTLE BIT SLOWER - WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM
If shipping is the beating heart of global trade, its pulse is about to get slower.
Faced with uncertainty about which fuels to use in the long ...
Tuesday, 19 July 22
GERMANY'S INCREASED COAL, OIL USE WILL BE TEMPORARY, SCHOLZ SAYS - CNBC
Chancellor Olaf Scholz says Germany’s decision to reactivate coal and oil-fired power plants to relieve energy shortages because of the war i ...
Tuesday, 19 July 22
INDONESIA REMOVES PALM OIL EXPORT LEVY UNTIL AUG. 31 - REUTERS
Indonesia has scrapped its export levy for all palm oil products until Aug. 31 in a fresh attempt to boost exports and ease high inventories, finan ...
Tuesday, 19 July 22
CHINA'S JUNE DAILY COAL OUTPUT JUMPS ON PEAK SUMMER DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output in June rose 6.6 per cent from a month earlier as miners cranked up output ahead of peak summer temperatures, when ...
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Planning Commission, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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