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Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Drewry believes this trade will have little or no impact on the demand for dry bulk shipping.
The Indian government plans to sharply lift the domestic production capacity of crude steel which could lead to even higher coking coal imports as it is a key raw material for steel production. The imports of coking coal have been rising over the past few years. While Australia is the predominant supplier of coking coal to India, accounting for around 80% of country’s imports of the commodity, the US and Canada supply the balance with Russia’s share at a negligible 1-2% annually. In 2020, the latter exported 1.2 million tonnes of coking coal to India.
As Indian steel mills are highly reliant on Australian coking coal, any disruption in the supply of the commodity in Australia could affect India’s steel production. The recent deal with Russia could be seen as an attempt by Indian coking coal traders to diversify their import portfolio and could eat into the share of Australian coal, leaving the shares of the US and Canada untouched.
Meanwhile, the Russian government plans to lift the country’s coal production to 668 million tonnes by 2035 from around 400 million tonnes in 2020 and thereby increase its presence in the Asian market. The country targets to lift its coal exports to 390 million tonnes from around 211 million tonnes in 2020, indicating that exports will rise by around 12 million tonnes per annum. In line with the country’s vison, some Russian companies such as Kolmar and Elga intend to ramp up their coal production volumes and port capacities.
Since Russia-India and Australia-India are predominantly Panamax routes, the impact of the recent deal on the demand for Panamax vessels will depend on the port that will supply coking coal to India. Russia has been exporting coal through Murmansk, Vanino, Vostochny and Ust-Luga, of which Vanino and Vostochny are almost equidistant from India, as is Australia, but Murmansk-India (and also Ust-Luga-India) is almost double the distance between India and Australia. As a result, for a given cargo volume, Murmansk-India and Ust-Luga-India should deploy twice the number of vessels than Australia-India, but for Vanino-India or Vostochny-India there will hardly be any addition in the overall vessel demand.
To estimate the influence of the Russia-India deal on vessel demand we assume that all four Russian ports will supply coal to India in equal quantities. At the speed of 11 knots, 40 million tonnes of coking coal trade on Russia-India would employ 94 odd Panamax vessels whereas the same cargo volume on Australia-India would need 66 Panamaxes, implying an increase of 28 Panamax vessels annually.
However, we believe the entire agreement between Russia and India for 40 million tonnes of annual coking coal trade will be difficult to materialise. The share of coking coal in Russia’s overall coal exports has been limited to 12-14% over the past five years. This means that even if the country’s coal exports will rise by 12 million tonnes per annum, coking coal exports could rise by just 1-2 million tonnes annually.
Moreover, even if the country is able to meet the agreed quantity, it seems that Russia would supply a major proportion of the coking coal through port Vanino as the country’s major coal companies are increasing their coal handling capacity at this port. While Kolmar group plans to lift the annual coal handling capacity of the VaninoTransUgol terminal by 12 million tonnes by 2023, Albert Avdolyan plans to construct a coal terminal at Vanino with annual handling capacity of 30 million tonnes. As mentioned above vessel demand on Vanino-India will be no different from that on Australia-India and any shift of cargo away from Australia-India and towards Vanino-India will have little impact on dry bulk shipping demand.
Source: Drewry
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Tuesday, 26 July 22
CAP RUSSIA'S OIL PRICE NOW - PROJECT SYNDICATE
Though the price of oil has declined in recent weeks, it is still through the roof, filtering through to gasoline prices, and causing economic and ...
Tuesday, 26 July 22
WILL SOUTH AMERICA’S WINTER DEMAND DRAW LNG CARGOES AWAY FROM EUROPE? - ICIS
South America is now in the middle of its winter demand season. Last year the region increased its share of global LNG imports in winter, with Braz ...
Monday, 25 July 22
GLOBAL 2021 COAL-FIRED ELECTRICITY GENERATION SURGES TO RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
By contrast, mine output was still fractionally below the record set between 2012 and 2014 because older and less efficient coal generators have be ...
Saturday, 23 July 22
THE EU HAS BEEN REDUCING IMPORTS OF RUSSIAN REFINED OIL PRODUCTS SINCE MARCH - BANCHERO COSTA
The European Union could now ban the import and transit of fuel oil from Russia around six months ahead of the planned deadline, an EU official and ...
Saturday, 23 July 22
INDONESIA CONSIDERING SCRAPPING DOMESTIC SALES RULE FOR PALM OIL EXPORTS - REUTERS
Indonesia is considering removing a domestic sales requirement for palm oil exports because high inventories of the vegetable oil have been holding ...
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- Planning Commission, India
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- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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- VISA Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PTC India Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
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