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Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Drewry believes this trade will have little or no impact on the demand for dry bulk shipping.
The Indian government plans to sharply lift the domestic production capacity of crude steel which could lead to even higher coking coal imports as it is a key raw material for steel production. The imports of coking coal have been rising over the past few years. While Australia is the predominant supplier of coking coal to India, accounting for around 80% of country’s imports of the commodity, the US and Canada supply the balance with Russia’s share at a negligible 1-2% annually. In 2020, the latter exported 1.2 million tonnes of coking coal to India.
As Indian steel mills are highly reliant on Australian coking coal, any disruption in the supply of the commodity in Australia could affect India’s steel production. The recent deal with Russia could be seen as an attempt by Indian coking coal traders to diversify their import portfolio and could eat into the share of Australian coal, leaving the shares of the US and Canada untouched.
Meanwhile, the Russian government plans to lift the country’s coal production to 668 million tonnes by 2035 from around 400 million tonnes in 2020 and thereby increase its presence in the Asian market. The country targets to lift its coal exports to 390 million tonnes from around 211 million tonnes in 2020, indicating that exports will rise by around 12 million tonnes per annum. In line with the country’s vison, some Russian companies such as Kolmar and Elga intend to ramp up their coal production volumes and port capacities.
Since Russia-India and Australia-India are predominantly Panamax routes, the impact of the recent deal on the demand for Panamax vessels will depend on the port that will supply coking coal to India. Russia has been exporting coal through Murmansk, Vanino, Vostochny and Ust-Luga, of which Vanino and Vostochny are almost equidistant from India, as is Australia, but Murmansk-India (and also Ust-Luga-India) is almost double the distance between India and Australia. As a result, for a given cargo volume, Murmansk-India and Ust-Luga-India should deploy twice the number of vessels than Australia-India, but for Vanino-India or Vostochny-India there will hardly be any addition in the overall vessel demand.
To estimate the influence of the Russia-India deal on vessel demand we assume that all four Russian ports will supply coal to India in equal quantities. At the speed of 11 knots, 40 million tonnes of coking coal trade on Russia-India would employ 94 odd Panamax vessels whereas the same cargo volume on Australia-India would need 66 Panamaxes, implying an increase of 28 Panamax vessels annually.
However, we believe the entire agreement between Russia and India for 40 million tonnes of annual coking coal trade will be difficult to materialise. The share of coking coal in Russia’s overall coal exports has been limited to 12-14% over the past five years. This means that even if the country’s coal exports will rise by 12 million tonnes per annum, coking coal exports could rise by just 1-2 million tonnes annually.
Moreover, even if the country is able to meet the agreed quantity, it seems that Russia would supply a major proportion of the coking coal through port Vanino as the country’s major coal companies are increasing their coal handling capacity at this port. While Kolmar group plans to lift the annual coal handling capacity of the VaninoTransUgol terminal by 12 million tonnes by 2023, Albert Avdolyan plans to construct a coal terminal at Vanino with annual handling capacity of 30 million tonnes. As mentioned above vessel demand on Vanino-India will be no different from that on Australia-India and any shift of cargo away from Australia-India and towards Vanino-India will have little impact on dry bulk shipping demand.
Source: Drewry
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Saturday, 11 June 22
AIMTEK INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE AND AWARDS
Press Release: The prestigious AIMTEK International Conference and Awards concluded successfully on June 7th, 2022 at Radisson Blu, Yas Island Abu ...
Thursday, 26 May 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The newbuilding market activity has been significantly positive from a dry bulk owner perspective during the first half of 2022. Indeed, the contra ...
Wednesday, 18 May 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE DROPPED 4.42% IN MAY
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for May delivery drops 4.42 per cent month on month.
The Indonesian Coal Price Referen ...
Thursday, 12 May 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Almost through half of the year, the overall shipping market continues to show signs of healthiness, after plenty of festivities and holidays that ...
Wednesday, 27 April 22
EUROPEAN UNION'S LNG IMPORTS - BANCHERO COSTA
In 2021, the European Union (27) was the third largest seaborne importer of LNG in the world, with a 15.8% share.
It followed Mainla ...
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- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
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- Australian Coal Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
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- Planning Commission, India
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
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