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Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Drewry believes this trade will have little or no impact on the demand for dry bulk shipping.
The Indian government plans to sharply lift the domestic production capacity of crude steel which could lead to even higher coking coal imports as it is a key raw material for steel production. The imports of coking coal have been rising over the past few years. While Australia is the predominant supplier of coking coal to India, accounting for around 80% of country’s imports of the commodity, the US and Canada supply the balance with Russia’s share at a negligible 1-2% annually. In 2020, the latter exported 1.2 million tonnes of coking coal to India.
As Indian steel mills are highly reliant on Australian coking coal, any disruption in the supply of the commodity in Australia could affect India’s steel production. The recent deal with Russia could be seen as an attempt by Indian coking coal traders to diversify their import portfolio and could eat into the share of Australian coal, leaving the shares of the US and Canada untouched.
Meanwhile, the Russian government plans to lift the country’s coal production to 668 million tonnes by 2035 from around 400 million tonnes in 2020 and thereby increase its presence in the Asian market. The country targets to lift its coal exports to 390 million tonnes from around 211 million tonnes in 2020, indicating that exports will rise by around 12 million tonnes per annum. In line with the country’s vison, some Russian companies such as Kolmar and Elga intend to ramp up their coal production volumes and port capacities.
Since Russia-India and Australia-India are predominantly Panamax routes, the impact of the recent deal on the demand for Panamax vessels will depend on the port that will supply coking coal to India. Russia has been exporting coal through Murmansk, Vanino, Vostochny and Ust-Luga, of which Vanino and Vostochny are almost equidistant from India, as is Australia, but Murmansk-India (and also Ust-Luga-India) is almost double the distance between India and Australia. As a result, for a given cargo volume, Murmansk-India and Ust-Luga-India should deploy twice the number of vessels than Australia-India, but for Vanino-India or Vostochny-India there will hardly be any addition in the overall vessel demand.
To estimate the influence of the Russia-India deal on vessel demand we assume that all four Russian ports will supply coal to India in equal quantities. At the speed of 11 knots, 40 million tonnes of coking coal trade on Russia-India would employ 94 odd Panamax vessels whereas the same cargo volume on Australia-India would need 66 Panamaxes, implying an increase of 28 Panamax vessels annually.
However, we believe the entire agreement between Russia and India for 40 million tonnes of annual coking coal trade will be difficult to materialise. The share of coking coal in Russia’s overall coal exports has been limited to 12-14% over the past five years. This means that even if the country’s coal exports will rise by 12 million tonnes per annum, coking coal exports could rise by just 1-2 million tonnes annually.
Moreover, even if the country is able to meet the agreed quantity, it seems that Russia would supply a major proportion of the coking coal through port Vanino as the country’s major coal companies are increasing their coal handling capacity at this port. While Kolmar group plans to lift the annual coal handling capacity of the VaninoTransUgol terminal by 12 million tonnes by 2023, Albert Avdolyan plans to construct a coal terminal at Vanino with annual handling capacity of 30 million tonnes. As mentioned above vessel demand on Vanino-India will be no different from that on Australia-India and any shift of cargo away from Australia-India and towards Vanino-India will have little impact on dry bulk shipping demand.
Source: Drewry
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Saturday, 11 June 22
AIMTEK INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE AND AWARDS
Press Release: The prestigious AIMTEK International Conference and Awards concluded successfully on June 7th, 2022 at Radisson Blu, Yas Island Abu ...
Thursday, 26 May 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The newbuilding market activity has been significantly positive from a dry bulk owner perspective during the first half of 2022. Indeed, the contra ...
Wednesday, 18 May 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE DROPPED 4.42% IN MAY
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for May delivery drops 4.42 per cent month on month.
The Indonesian Coal Price Referen ...
Thursday, 12 May 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Almost through half of the year, the overall shipping market continues to show signs of healthiness, after plenty of festivities and holidays that ...
Wednesday, 27 April 22
EUROPEAN UNION'S LNG IMPORTS - BANCHERO COSTA
In 2021, the European Union (27) was the third largest seaborne importer of LNG in the world, with a 15.8% share.
It followed Mainla ...
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
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- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
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