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Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Drewry believes this trade will have little or no impact on the demand for dry bulk shipping.
The Indian government plans to sharply lift the domestic production capacity of crude steel which could lead to even higher coking coal imports as it is a key raw material for steel production. The imports of coking coal have been rising over the past few years. While Australia is the predominant supplier of coking coal to India, accounting for around 80% of country’s imports of the commodity, the US and Canada supply the balance with Russia’s share at a negligible 1-2% annually. In 2020, the latter exported 1.2 million tonnes of coking coal to India.
As Indian steel mills are highly reliant on Australian coking coal, any disruption in the supply of the commodity in Australia could affect India’s steel production. The recent deal with Russia could be seen as an attempt by Indian coking coal traders to diversify their import portfolio and could eat into the share of Australian coal, leaving the shares of the US and Canada untouched.
Meanwhile, the Russian government plans to lift the country’s coal production to 668 million tonnes by 2035 from around 400 million tonnes in 2020 and thereby increase its presence in the Asian market. The country targets to lift its coal exports to 390 million tonnes from around 211 million tonnes in 2020, indicating that exports will rise by around 12 million tonnes per annum. In line with the country’s vison, some Russian companies such as Kolmar and Elga intend to ramp up their coal production volumes and port capacities.
Since Russia-India and Australia-India are predominantly Panamax routes, the impact of the recent deal on the demand for Panamax vessels will depend on the port that will supply coking coal to India. Russia has been exporting coal through Murmansk, Vanino, Vostochny and Ust-Luga, of which Vanino and Vostochny are almost equidistant from India, as is Australia, but Murmansk-India (and also Ust-Luga-India) is almost double the distance between India and Australia. As a result, for a given cargo volume, Murmansk-India and Ust-Luga-India should deploy twice the number of vessels than Australia-India, but for Vanino-India or Vostochny-India there will hardly be any addition in the overall vessel demand.
To estimate the influence of the Russia-India deal on vessel demand we assume that all four Russian ports will supply coal to India in equal quantities. At the speed of 11 knots, 40 million tonnes of coking coal trade on Russia-India would employ 94 odd Panamax vessels whereas the same cargo volume on Australia-India would need 66 Panamaxes, implying an increase of 28 Panamax vessels annually.
However, we believe the entire agreement between Russia and India for 40 million tonnes of annual coking coal trade will be difficult to materialise. The share of coking coal in Russia’s overall coal exports has been limited to 12-14% over the past five years. This means that even if the country’s coal exports will rise by 12 million tonnes per annum, coking coal exports could rise by just 1-2 million tonnes annually.
Moreover, even if the country is able to meet the agreed quantity, it seems that Russia would supply a major proportion of the coking coal through port Vanino as the country’s major coal companies are increasing their coal handling capacity at this port. While Kolmar group plans to lift the annual coal handling capacity of the VaninoTransUgol terminal by 12 million tonnes by 2023, Albert Avdolyan plans to construct a coal terminal at Vanino with annual handling capacity of 30 million tonnes. As mentioned above vessel demand on Vanino-India will be no different from that on Australia-India and any shift of cargo away from Australia-India and towards Vanino-India will have little impact on dry bulk shipping demand.
Source: Drewry
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Monday, 18 April 22
DEMAND FOR THERMAL COAL TO RISE DUE TO INCREASE IN ELECTRICITY DEMAND: INDIAN COAL MINISTRY - PTI
Coal block allocatees have a golden opportunity to augment production as the demand for thermal coal will rise due to an increase in electricity de ...
Tuesday, 05 April 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE HITS RECORD ABOVE $288
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for April in a steep climb from March 2022.
As expected, Russia – Ukraine war dr ...
Thursday, 31 March 22
CHINA STATE PLANNER ASKS COAL INDEX PROVIDERS TO RECTIFY IRREGULARITIES - REUTERS
China’s state planner has asked some major coal price index providers to rectify “severe irregularities” it had identified in the ...
Thursday, 31 March 22
IMPORTED COAL PRICES TO JUMP 55% IN APR-JUN, IMPACT INDIAN FIRMS: ICRA - LIVEMINT
Supply disruption owing to the Russia-Ukraine conflict could push the price of imported coal by 45-55% in Q1FY23 compared to the previous quarter, ...
Thursday, 31 March 22
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT SET FOR MODERATE GROWTH IN 2022 - INDUSTRY BODY - REUTERS
China is expected to see its coal output to grow further in 2022 after hitting a record last year, an industry body forecast on Wednesday, as the c ...
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- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
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