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Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Drewry believes this trade will have little or no impact on the demand for dry bulk shipping.
The Indian government plans to sharply lift the domestic production capacity of crude steel which could lead to even higher coking coal imports as it is a key raw material for steel production. The imports of coking coal have been rising over the past few years. While Australia is the predominant supplier of coking coal to India, accounting for around 80% of country’s imports of the commodity, the US and Canada supply the balance with Russia’s share at a negligible 1-2% annually. In 2020, the latter exported 1.2 million tonnes of coking coal to India.
As Indian steel mills are highly reliant on Australian coking coal, any disruption in the supply of the commodity in Australia could affect India’s steel production. The recent deal with Russia could be seen as an attempt by Indian coking coal traders to diversify their import portfolio and could eat into the share of Australian coal, leaving the shares of the US and Canada untouched.
Meanwhile, the Russian government plans to lift the country’s coal production to 668 million tonnes by 2035 from around 400 million tonnes in 2020 and thereby increase its presence in the Asian market. The country targets to lift its coal exports to 390 million tonnes from around 211 million tonnes in 2020, indicating that exports will rise by around 12 million tonnes per annum. In line with the country’s vison, some Russian companies such as Kolmar and Elga intend to ramp up their coal production volumes and port capacities.
Since Russia-India and Australia-India are predominantly Panamax routes, the impact of the recent deal on the demand for Panamax vessels will depend on the port that will supply coking coal to India. Russia has been exporting coal through Murmansk, Vanino, Vostochny and Ust-Luga, of which Vanino and Vostochny are almost equidistant from India, as is Australia, but Murmansk-India (and also Ust-Luga-India) is almost double the distance between India and Australia. As a result, for a given cargo volume, Murmansk-India and Ust-Luga-India should deploy twice the number of vessels than Australia-India, but for Vanino-India or Vostochny-India there will hardly be any addition in the overall vessel demand.
To estimate the influence of the Russia-India deal on vessel demand we assume that all four Russian ports will supply coal to India in equal quantities. At the speed of 11 knots, 40 million tonnes of coking coal trade on Russia-India would employ 94 odd Panamax vessels whereas the same cargo volume on Australia-India would need 66 Panamaxes, implying an increase of 28 Panamax vessels annually.
However, we believe the entire agreement between Russia and India for 40 million tonnes of annual coking coal trade will be difficult to materialise. The share of coking coal in Russia’s overall coal exports has been limited to 12-14% over the past five years. This means that even if the country’s coal exports will rise by 12 million tonnes per annum, coking coal exports could rise by just 1-2 million tonnes annually.
Moreover, even if the country is able to meet the agreed quantity, it seems that Russia would supply a major proportion of the coking coal through port Vanino as the country’s major coal companies are increasing their coal handling capacity at this port. While Kolmar group plans to lift the annual coal handling capacity of the VaninoTransUgol terminal by 12 million tonnes by 2023, Albert Avdolyan plans to construct a coal terminal at Vanino with annual handling capacity of 30 million tonnes. As mentioned above vessel demand on Vanino-India will be no different from that on Australia-India and any shift of cargo away from Australia-India and towards Vanino-India will have little impact on dry bulk shipping demand.
Source: Drewry
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Monday, 18 April 22
DEMAND FOR THERMAL COAL TO RISE DUE TO INCREASE IN ELECTRICITY DEMAND: INDIAN COAL MINISTRY - PTI
Coal block allocatees have a golden opportunity to augment production as the demand for thermal coal will rise due to an increase in electricity de ...
Tuesday, 05 April 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE HITS RECORD ABOVE $288
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for April in a steep climb from March 2022.
As expected, Russia – Ukraine war dr ...
Thursday, 31 March 22
CHINA STATE PLANNER ASKS COAL INDEX PROVIDERS TO RECTIFY IRREGULARITIES - REUTERS
China’s state planner has asked some major coal price index providers to rectify “severe irregularities” it had identified in the ...
Thursday, 31 March 22
IMPORTED COAL PRICES TO JUMP 55% IN APR-JUN, IMPACT INDIAN FIRMS: ICRA - LIVEMINT
Supply disruption owing to the Russia-Ukraine conflict could push the price of imported coal by 45-55% in Q1FY23 compared to the previous quarter, ...
Thursday, 31 March 22
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT SET FOR MODERATE GROWTH IN 2022 - INDUSTRY BODY - REUTERS
China is expected to see its coal output to grow further in 2022 after hitting a record last year, an industry body forecast on Wednesday, as the c ...
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- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PTC India Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
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