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Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Drewry believes this trade will have little or no impact on the demand for dry bulk shipping.
The Indian government plans to sharply lift the domestic production capacity of crude steel which could lead to even higher coking coal imports as it is a key raw material for steel production. The imports of coking coal have been rising over the past few years. While Australia is the predominant supplier of coking coal to India, accounting for around 80% of country’s imports of the commodity, the US and Canada supply the balance with Russia’s share at a negligible 1-2% annually. In 2020, the latter exported 1.2 million tonnes of coking coal to India.
As Indian steel mills are highly reliant on Australian coking coal, any disruption in the supply of the commodity in Australia could affect India’s steel production. The recent deal with Russia could be seen as an attempt by Indian coking coal traders to diversify their import portfolio and could eat into the share of Australian coal, leaving the shares of the US and Canada untouched.
Meanwhile, the Russian government plans to lift the country’s coal production to 668 million tonnes by 2035 from around 400 million tonnes in 2020 and thereby increase its presence in the Asian market. The country targets to lift its coal exports to 390 million tonnes from around 211 million tonnes in 2020, indicating that exports will rise by around 12 million tonnes per annum. In line with the country’s vison, some Russian companies such as Kolmar and Elga intend to ramp up their coal production volumes and port capacities.
Since Russia-India and Australia-India are predominantly Panamax routes, the impact of the recent deal on the demand for Panamax vessels will depend on the port that will supply coking coal to India. Russia has been exporting coal through Murmansk, Vanino, Vostochny and Ust-Luga, of which Vanino and Vostochny are almost equidistant from India, as is Australia, but Murmansk-India (and also Ust-Luga-India) is almost double the distance between India and Australia. As a result, for a given cargo volume, Murmansk-India and Ust-Luga-India should deploy twice the number of vessels than Australia-India, but for Vanino-India or Vostochny-India there will hardly be any addition in the overall vessel demand.
To estimate the influence of the Russia-India deal on vessel demand we assume that all four Russian ports will supply coal to India in equal quantities. At the speed of 11 knots, 40 million tonnes of coking coal trade on Russia-India would employ 94 odd Panamax vessels whereas the same cargo volume on Australia-India would need 66 Panamaxes, implying an increase of 28 Panamax vessels annually.
However, we believe the entire agreement between Russia and India for 40 million tonnes of annual coking coal trade will be difficult to materialise. The share of coking coal in Russia’s overall coal exports has been limited to 12-14% over the past five years. This means that even if the country’s coal exports will rise by 12 million tonnes per annum, coking coal exports could rise by just 1-2 million tonnes annually.
Moreover, even if the country is able to meet the agreed quantity, it seems that Russia would supply a major proportion of the coking coal through port Vanino as the country’s major coal companies are increasing their coal handling capacity at this port. While Kolmar group plans to lift the annual coal handling capacity of the VaninoTransUgol terminal by 12 million tonnes by 2023, Albert Avdolyan plans to construct a coal terminal at Vanino with annual handling capacity of 30 million tonnes. As mentioned above vessel demand on Vanino-India will be no different from that on Australia-India and any shift of cargo away from Australia-India and towards Vanino-India will have little impact on dry bulk shipping demand.
Source: Drewry
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Tuesday, 08 March 22
RUSSIA-UKRAINE CONFLICT ADDS IMPETUS TO ASIA'S ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
Clean energy alternatives are a crucial hedge against future disruptions in global commodity markets
Russia’s invasion of Ukra ...
Tuesday, 08 March 22
THE HIGH COST OF INDONESIA’S DOWNSTREAM COAL PROJECTS IS UNDERESTIMATED - IEEFA
Three Indonesian ministries have come up with a DME purchase price of US$378/tonne fixed for 20 years compared to IEEFA’s US$601/tonne estima ...
Wednesday, 02 March 22
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The escalating confrontation between Russia and Ukraine has the potential to disrupt global order and set the world back a few decades. While count ...
Tuesday, 22 February 22
THE DRY BULK MARKET HAS MOVED ON A POSITIVE TRACK - ALLIED
The dry bulk market has moved on a positive track as of the past couple of weeks or so. Following the typical softening in freight conditions durin ...
Tuesday, 22 February 22
CHINA'S DAILY OUTPUT OF COAL REBOUNDS TO OVER 12 MLN TONNES - REUTERS
China’s coal output returned to more than 12 million tonnes per day as of Feb. 20, the country’s state planner said on Monday, a level ...
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
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