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Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Drewry believes this trade will have little or no impact on the demand for dry bulk shipping.
The Indian government plans to sharply lift the domestic production capacity of crude steel which could lead to even higher coking coal imports as it is a key raw material for steel production. The imports of coking coal have been rising over the past few years. While Australia is the predominant supplier of coking coal to India, accounting for around 80% of country’s imports of the commodity, the US and Canada supply the balance with Russia’s share at a negligible 1-2% annually. In 2020, the latter exported 1.2 million tonnes of coking coal to India.
As Indian steel mills are highly reliant on Australian coking coal, any disruption in the supply of the commodity in Australia could affect India’s steel production. The recent deal with Russia could be seen as an attempt by Indian coking coal traders to diversify their import portfolio and could eat into the share of Australian coal, leaving the shares of the US and Canada untouched.
Meanwhile, the Russian government plans to lift the country’s coal production to 668 million tonnes by 2035 from around 400 million tonnes in 2020 and thereby increase its presence in the Asian market. The country targets to lift its coal exports to 390 million tonnes from around 211 million tonnes in 2020, indicating that exports will rise by around 12 million tonnes per annum. In line with the country’s vison, some Russian companies such as Kolmar and Elga intend to ramp up their coal production volumes and port capacities.
Since Russia-India and Australia-India are predominantly Panamax routes, the impact of the recent deal on the demand for Panamax vessels will depend on the port that will supply coking coal to India. Russia has been exporting coal through Murmansk, Vanino, Vostochny and Ust-Luga, of which Vanino and Vostochny are almost equidistant from India, as is Australia, but Murmansk-India (and also Ust-Luga-India) is almost double the distance between India and Australia. As a result, for a given cargo volume, Murmansk-India and Ust-Luga-India should deploy twice the number of vessels than Australia-India, but for Vanino-India or Vostochny-India there will hardly be any addition in the overall vessel demand.
To estimate the influence of the Russia-India deal on vessel demand we assume that all four Russian ports will supply coal to India in equal quantities. At the speed of 11 knots, 40 million tonnes of coking coal trade on Russia-India would employ 94 odd Panamax vessels whereas the same cargo volume on Australia-India would need 66 Panamaxes, implying an increase of 28 Panamax vessels annually.
However, we believe the entire agreement between Russia and India for 40 million tonnes of annual coking coal trade will be difficult to materialise. The share of coking coal in Russia’s overall coal exports has been limited to 12-14% over the past five years. This means that even if the country’s coal exports will rise by 12 million tonnes per annum, coking coal exports could rise by just 1-2 million tonnes annually.
Moreover, even if the country is able to meet the agreed quantity, it seems that Russia would supply a major proportion of the coking coal through port Vanino as the country’s major coal companies are increasing their coal handling capacity at this port. While Kolmar group plans to lift the annual coal handling capacity of the VaninoTransUgol terminal by 12 million tonnes by 2023, Albert Avdolyan plans to construct a coal terminal at Vanino with annual handling capacity of 30 million tonnes. As mentioned above vessel demand on Vanino-India will be no different from that on Australia-India and any shift of cargo away from Australia-India and towards Vanino-India will have little impact on dry bulk shipping demand.
Source: Drewry
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Thursday, 10 February 22
EIA ANALYSIS CONSIDERS DIFFERENT OUTCOMES FOR COAL MARKETS IN INDIA AND SOUTHEAST ASIA
In our International Energy Outlook 2021 (IEO2021) Issues in Focus: Uncertainty in Coal Trade in India and Greater Southeast Asia, we analyze three ...
Wednesday, 09 February 22
OIL PRICES: "IT'S GOING TO BE VERY EASY" TO GET TO $100/BARREL, ANALYST SAYS - YAHOO FINANCE
Energy and oil prices have been on fire over the last six months — and expect them to go higher, says one analyst.
“For ...
Wednesday, 09 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Iron ore prices have jumped significantly in the week prior to the Chinese New Year with traders and producers stocking up on raw materials. China& ...
Wednesday, 09 February 22
FEBRUARY HBA HITS RECORD HIGH IN 2022 ON INDONESIA’S EXPORT BAN IN JANUARY, WORSEN SUPPLY, UKRAINE TENSIONS
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for February in a steep climb from January 2022.
As expected in January the Indonesia ...
Wednesday, 09 February 22
CHINESE COAL MARKS BEST DAY IN 4 MONTHS ON TIGHT SUPPLY, HIGH DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s coal futures on Tuesday recorded their best session since Bejing’s mid-October intervention to cool runaway prices, aided by co ...
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- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
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