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Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Drewry believes this trade will have little or no impact on the demand for dry bulk shipping.
The Indian government plans to sharply lift the domestic production capacity of crude steel which could lead to even higher coking coal imports as it is a key raw material for steel production. The imports of coking coal have been rising over the past few years. While Australia is the predominant supplier of coking coal to India, accounting for around 80% of country’s imports of the commodity, the US and Canada supply the balance with Russia’s share at a negligible 1-2% annually. In 2020, the latter exported 1.2 million tonnes of coking coal to India.
As Indian steel mills are highly reliant on Australian coking coal, any disruption in the supply of the commodity in Australia could affect India’s steel production. The recent deal with Russia could be seen as an attempt by Indian coking coal traders to diversify their import portfolio and could eat into the share of Australian coal, leaving the shares of the US and Canada untouched.
Meanwhile, the Russian government plans to lift the country’s coal production to 668 million tonnes by 2035 from around 400 million tonnes in 2020 and thereby increase its presence in the Asian market. The country targets to lift its coal exports to 390 million tonnes from around 211 million tonnes in 2020, indicating that exports will rise by around 12 million tonnes per annum. In line with the country’s vison, some Russian companies such as Kolmar and Elga intend to ramp up their coal production volumes and port capacities.
Since Russia-India and Australia-India are predominantly Panamax routes, the impact of the recent deal on the demand for Panamax vessels will depend on the port that will supply coking coal to India. Russia has been exporting coal through Murmansk, Vanino, Vostochny and Ust-Luga, of which Vanino and Vostochny are almost equidistant from India, as is Australia, but Murmansk-India (and also Ust-Luga-India) is almost double the distance between India and Australia. As a result, for a given cargo volume, Murmansk-India and Ust-Luga-India should deploy twice the number of vessels than Australia-India, but for Vanino-India or Vostochny-India there will hardly be any addition in the overall vessel demand.
To estimate the influence of the Russia-India deal on vessel demand we assume that all four Russian ports will supply coal to India in equal quantities. At the speed of 11 knots, 40 million tonnes of coking coal trade on Russia-India would employ 94 odd Panamax vessels whereas the same cargo volume on Australia-India would need 66 Panamaxes, implying an increase of 28 Panamax vessels annually.
However, we believe the entire agreement between Russia and India for 40 million tonnes of annual coking coal trade will be difficult to materialise. The share of coking coal in Russia’s overall coal exports has been limited to 12-14% over the past five years. This means that even if the country’s coal exports will rise by 12 million tonnes per annum, coking coal exports could rise by just 1-2 million tonnes annually.
Moreover, even if the country is able to meet the agreed quantity, it seems that Russia would supply a major proportion of the coking coal through port Vanino as the country’s major coal companies are increasing their coal handling capacity at this port. While Kolmar group plans to lift the annual coal handling capacity of the VaninoTransUgol terminal by 12 million tonnes by 2023, Albert Avdolyan plans to construct a coal terminal at Vanino with annual handling capacity of 30 million tonnes. As mentioned above vessel demand on Vanino-India will be no different from that on Australia-India and any shift of cargo away from Australia-India and towards Vanino-India will have little impact on dry bulk shipping demand.
Source: Drewry
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Friday, 04 February 22
RENEWABLES ON THE RISE, COAL CONTINUOUSLY FALLING - EUROPEAN COMMISSION
Although oil (34.5%) and natural gas (23.7%) were still the most important fuel sources in the EU energy mix in 2020, renewable energy’s shar ...
Thursday, 03 February 22
COAL SHORTAGE NOW AT ALARMING LEVELS, SAY ALUMINIUM PRODUCERS - IANS
With no relief in sight despite coal stocks running critically low and production disruptions looming across the Indian aluminium sector, the Alumi ...
Wednesday, 02 February 22
HIGH COKING COAL PRICES PROVIDE GLIMPSE INTO STEELMAKING'S FUTURE - MCKINSEY
Last year was a volatile one in global commodity markets. Demand for coking coal, an essential raw material in the production of steel, was extreme ...
Wednesday, 02 February 22
INDONESIA'S RESTRICTIONS ON COMMODITIES RATTLE MARKETS, MORE MOVES LIKELY - REUTERS
In just the first month of this year, Indonesian policymakers have rattled global markets with restrictions on some of its biggest commodities expo ...
Wednesday, 02 February 22
CHINA'S TOP COAL PRODUCER FORECASTS 28 PCT PROFIT GROWTH IN 2021 - XINHUA
China Shenhua Energy Company Limited, one of the country’s biggest coal producers, said its net profits are expected to jump by 28 percent in ...
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- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The University of Queensland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
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