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Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Drewry believes this trade will have little or no impact on the demand for dry bulk shipping.
The Indian government plans to sharply lift the domestic production capacity of crude steel which could lead to even higher coking coal imports as it is a key raw material for steel production. The imports of coking coal have been rising over the past few years. While Australia is the predominant supplier of coking coal to India, accounting for around 80% of country’s imports of the commodity, the US and Canada supply the balance with Russia’s share at a negligible 1-2% annually. In 2020, the latter exported 1.2 million tonnes of coking coal to India.
As Indian steel mills are highly reliant on Australian coking coal, any disruption in the supply of the commodity in Australia could affect India’s steel production. The recent deal with Russia could be seen as an attempt by Indian coking coal traders to diversify their import portfolio and could eat into the share of Australian coal, leaving the shares of the US and Canada untouched.
Meanwhile, the Russian government plans to lift the country’s coal production to 668 million tonnes by 2035 from around 400 million tonnes in 2020 and thereby increase its presence in the Asian market. The country targets to lift its coal exports to 390 million tonnes from around 211 million tonnes in 2020, indicating that exports will rise by around 12 million tonnes per annum. In line with the country’s vison, some Russian companies such as Kolmar and Elga intend to ramp up their coal production volumes and port capacities.
Since Russia-India and Australia-India are predominantly Panamax routes, the impact of the recent deal on the demand for Panamax vessels will depend on the port that will supply coking coal to India. Russia has been exporting coal through Murmansk, Vanino, Vostochny and Ust-Luga, of which Vanino and Vostochny are almost equidistant from India, as is Australia, but Murmansk-India (and also Ust-Luga-India) is almost double the distance between India and Australia. As a result, for a given cargo volume, Murmansk-India and Ust-Luga-India should deploy twice the number of vessels than Australia-India, but for Vanino-India or Vostochny-India there will hardly be any addition in the overall vessel demand.
To estimate the influence of the Russia-India deal on vessel demand we assume that all four Russian ports will supply coal to India in equal quantities. At the speed of 11 knots, 40 million tonnes of coking coal trade on Russia-India would employ 94 odd Panamax vessels whereas the same cargo volume on Australia-India would need 66 Panamaxes, implying an increase of 28 Panamax vessels annually.
However, we believe the entire agreement between Russia and India for 40 million tonnes of annual coking coal trade will be difficult to materialise. The share of coking coal in Russia’s overall coal exports has been limited to 12-14% over the past five years. This means that even if the country’s coal exports will rise by 12 million tonnes per annum, coking coal exports could rise by just 1-2 million tonnes annually.
Moreover, even if the country is able to meet the agreed quantity, it seems that Russia would supply a major proportion of the coking coal through port Vanino as the country’s major coal companies are increasing their coal handling capacity at this port. While Kolmar group plans to lift the annual coal handling capacity of the VaninoTransUgol terminal by 12 million tonnes by 2023, Albert Avdolyan plans to construct a coal terminal at Vanino with annual handling capacity of 30 million tonnes. As mentioned above vessel demand on Vanino-India will be no different from that on Australia-India and any shift of cargo away from Australia-India and towards Vanino-India will have little impact on dry bulk shipping demand.
Source: Drewry
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Thursday, 17 February 22
MAJOR INSTITUTIONS PROVIDED OVER $1.5 TRLN TO COAL SECTOR IN 2019-2021, SAYS NGO GROUP - REUTERS
Financial institutions channelled more than $1.5 trillion into the coal industry in loans and underwriting from January 2019 to November 2021, even ...
Thursday, 17 February 22
APAC THERMAL COAL PRICES TO EASE ON END OF INDONESIA EXPORT BAN - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings-Shanghai/Singapore-14 February 2022: APAC thermal coal prices are likely to come under pressure in the near term due to seasonally we ...
Tuesday, 15 February 22
IS ANOTHER COAL SHORTAGE CRISIS LOOMING OVER INDIA? - BUSINESS STANDARD
In December last year, the Federation of Indian Mineral Industries (FIMI) shot off a letter to the Prime Minister claiming that the coal crisis was ...
Tuesday, 15 February 22
THERMAL COAL'S RECORD PRICE RUN MAY END UP ITS OWN WORST ENEMY - REUTERS
The price of benchmark Australian thermal coal rose last week to trade near record highs, providing a short-term boost to producers but increasing ...
Thursday, 10 February 22
INDONESIA: COAL EXPORT BAN - SKULD
Indonesia's coal export ban in the light of force majeure and off-hire clauses
In January 2022, Indonesia, the world's biggest exporte ...
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- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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