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Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Drewry believes this trade will have little or no impact on the demand for dry bulk shipping.
The Indian government plans to sharply lift the domestic production capacity of crude steel which could lead to even higher coking coal imports as it is a key raw material for steel production. The imports of coking coal have been rising over the past few years. While Australia is the predominant supplier of coking coal to India, accounting for around 80% of country’s imports of the commodity, the US and Canada supply the balance with Russia’s share at a negligible 1-2% annually. In 2020, the latter exported 1.2 million tonnes of coking coal to India.
As Indian steel mills are highly reliant on Australian coking coal, any disruption in the supply of the commodity in Australia could affect India’s steel production. The recent deal with Russia could be seen as an attempt by Indian coking coal traders to diversify their import portfolio and could eat into the share of Australian coal, leaving the shares of the US and Canada untouched.
Meanwhile, the Russian government plans to lift the country’s coal production to 668 million tonnes by 2035 from around 400 million tonnes in 2020 and thereby increase its presence in the Asian market. The country targets to lift its coal exports to 390 million tonnes from around 211 million tonnes in 2020, indicating that exports will rise by around 12 million tonnes per annum. In line with the country’s vison, some Russian companies such as Kolmar and Elga intend to ramp up their coal production volumes and port capacities.
Since Russia-India and Australia-India are predominantly Panamax routes, the impact of the recent deal on the demand for Panamax vessels will depend on the port that will supply coking coal to India. Russia has been exporting coal through Murmansk, Vanino, Vostochny and Ust-Luga, of which Vanino and Vostochny are almost equidistant from India, as is Australia, but Murmansk-India (and also Ust-Luga-India) is almost double the distance between India and Australia. As a result, for a given cargo volume, Murmansk-India and Ust-Luga-India should deploy twice the number of vessels than Australia-India, but for Vanino-India or Vostochny-India there will hardly be any addition in the overall vessel demand.
To estimate the influence of the Russia-India deal on vessel demand we assume that all four Russian ports will supply coal to India in equal quantities. At the speed of 11 knots, 40 million tonnes of coking coal trade on Russia-India would employ 94 odd Panamax vessels whereas the same cargo volume on Australia-India would need 66 Panamaxes, implying an increase of 28 Panamax vessels annually.
However, we believe the entire agreement between Russia and India for 40 million tonnes of annual coking coal trade will be difficult to materialise. The share of coking coal in Russia’s overall coal exports has been limited to 12-14% over the past five years. This means that even if the country’s coal exports will rise by 12 million tonnes per annum, coking coal exports could rise by just 1-2 million tonnes annually.
Moreover, even if the country is able to meet the agreed quantity, it seems that Russia would supply a major proportion of the coking coal through port Vanino as the country’s major coal companies are increasing their coal handling capacity at this port. While Kolmar group plans to lift the annual coal handling capacity of the VaninoTransUgol terminal by 12 million tonnes by 2023, Albert Avdolyan plans to construct a coal terminal at Vanino with annual handling capacity of 30 million tonnes. As mentioned above vessel demand on Vanino-India will be no different from that on Australia-India and any shift of cargo away from Australia-India and towards Vanino-India will have little impact on dry bulk shipping demand.
Source: Drewry
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Thursday, 17 December 20
BUMA SIGNED US$1.0 BILLION WORTH OF EXTENSION CONTRACT WITH BERAU COAL
PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama, subsidiary of PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk., has extended its mining services contracts with PT Berau Coal, in relation ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
INDONESIA 2020 COAL CONSUMPTION ESTIMATED AT 140-145 MLN TONNES - OFFICIAL, REUTERS REPORTED
Indonesia’s domestic coal consumption is estimated at 140-145 million tonnes this year, Dodik Ariyanto, an official at the energy ministry, t ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
RUSSIA REVISES DOWN EXPORT EXPECTATION - FITCH
The Ministry of Economy of Russia, the world’s third largest thermal coal exporting country, released its annual forecasts ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
INDIAN COAL IMPORTS TO REMAIN SUBDUED - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Rating commented on Indian Coal Imports, Fitch said, coal imports by Indian utilities fell by about 24% yoy to 44 million tonnes (mt) i ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
CHINA TO BOOST DOMESTIC SUPPLY - FITCH
China’s benchmark Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal/kg coal price rose above the government’s upper yellow interval of CNY600/tonne in early Octobe ...
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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