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Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Drewry believes this trade will have little or no impact on the demand for dry bulk shipping.
The Indian government plans to sharply lift the domestic production capacity of crude steel which could lead to even higher coking coal imports as it is a key raw material for steel production. The imports of coking coal have been rising over the past few years. While Australia is the predominant supplier of coking coal to India, accounting for around 80% of country’s imports of the commodity, the US and Canada supply the balance with Russia’s share at a negligible 1-2% annually. In 2020, the latter exported 1.2 million tonnes of coking coal to India.
As Indian steel mills are highly reliant on Australian coking coal, any disruption in the supply of the commodity in Australia could affect India’s steel production. The recent deal with Russia could be seen as an attempt by Indian coking coal traders to diversify their import portfolio and could eat into the share of Australian coal, leaving the shares of the US and Canada untouched.
Meanwhile, the Russian government plans to lift the country’s coal production to 668 million tonnes by 2035 from around 400 million tonnes in 2020 and thereby increase its presence in the Asian market. The country targets to lift its coal exports to 390 million tonnes from around 211 million tonnes in 2020, indicating that exports will rise by around 12 million tonnes per annum. In line with the country’s vison, some Russian companies such as Kolmar and Elga intend to ramp up their coal production volumes and port capacities.
Since Russia-India and Australia-India are predominantly Panamax routes, the impact of the recent deal on the demand for Panamax vessels will depend on the port that will supply coking coal to India. Russia has been exporting coal through Murmansk, Vanino, Vostochny and Ust-Luga, of which Vanino and Vostochny are almost equidistant from India, as is Australia, but Murmansk-India (and also Ust-Luga-India) is almost double the distance between India and Australia. As a result, for a given cargo volume, Murmansk-India and Ust-Luga-India should deploy twice the number of vessels than Australia-India, but for Vanino-India or Vostochny-India there will hardly be any addition in the overall vessel demand.
To estimate the influence of the Russia-India deal on vessel demand we assume that all four Russian ports will supply coal to India in equal quantities. At the speed of 11 knots, 40 million tonnes of coking coal trade on Russia-India would employ 94 odd Panamax vessels whereas the same cargo volume on Australia-India would need 66 Panamaxes, implying an increase of 28 Panamax vessels annually.
However, we believe the entire agreement between Russia and India for 40 million tonnes of annual coking coal trade will be difficult to materialise. The share of coking coal in Russia’s overall coal exports has been limited to 12-14% over the past five years. This means that even if the country’s coal exports will rise by 12 million tonnes per annum, coking coal exports could rise by just 1-2 million tonnes annually.
Moreover, even if the country is able to meet the agreed quantity, it seems that Russia would supply a major proportion of the coking coal through port Vanino as the country’s major coal companies are increasing their coal handling capacity at this port. While Kolmar group plans to lift the annual coal handling capacity of the VaninoTransUgol terminal by 12 million tonnes by 2023, Albert Avdolyan plans to construct a coal terminal at Vanino with annual handling capacity of 30 million tonnes. As mentioned above vessel demand on Vanino-India will be no different from that on Australia-India and any shift of cargo away from Australia-India and towards Vanino-India will have little impact on dry bulk shipping demand.
Source: Drewry
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Sunday, 13 December 20
LONGSTANDING DOWNSIDE RISKS TO TRADE OUTLOOK - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The OECD has attempted to put a positive spin on the trade message emanating from its latest economic outlook, released last week.
The ...
Sunday, 13 December 20
INDONESIA COAL OUTPUT AT 514 MILLION TONNES THIS YEAR, 2021 TARGET UNCHANGED - REUTERS
Indonesia coal output in the period to Dec. 10 stood at 514.2 million tonnes, official data from the energy ministry’s website showed.
&n ...
Thursday, 10 December 20
MALAYSIA'S CIMB ANNOUNCES COAL FINANCING PHASE-OUT BY 2040 AS ASIA'S FOSSIL FUEL DIVESTMENT DRIVE ACCELERATES - IEEFA
The first emerging markets bank to announce a progressive coal exit policy
Malaysia’s CIMB Group Holdings (CIMB) has announced ...
Wednesday, 09 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Heading towards the end of a difficult year and with the entire planet under the shadow of the covid-19 virus, it is interesting to proceed with a ...
Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the ...
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
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