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Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Drewry believes this trade will have little or no impact on the demand for dry bulk shipping.
The Indian government plans to sharply lift the domestic production capacity of crude steel which could lead to even higher coking coal imports as it is a key raw material for steel production. The imports of coking coal have been rising over the past few years. While Australia is the predominant supplier of coking coal to India, accounting for around 80% of country’s imports of the commodity, the US and Canada supply the balance with Russia’s share at a negligible 1-2% annually. In 2020, the latter exported 1.2 million tonnes of coking coal to India.
As Indian steel mills are highly reliant on Australian coking coal, any disruption in the supply of the commodity in Australia could affect India’s steel production. The recent deal with Russia could be seen as an attempt by Indian coking coal traders to diversify their import portfolio and could eat into the share of Australian coal, leaving the shares of the US and Canada untouched.
Meanwhile, the Russian government plans to lift the country’s coal production to 668 million tonnes by 2035 from around 400 million tonnes in 2020 and thereby increase its presence in the Asian market. The country targets to lift its coal exports to 390 million tonnes from around 211 million tonnes in 2020, indicating that exports will rise by around 12 million tonnes per annum. In line with the country’s vison, some Russian companies such as Kolmar and Elga intend to ramp up their coal production volumes and port capacities.
Since Russia-India and Australia-India are predominantly Panamax routes, the impact of the recent deal on the demand for Panamax vessels will depend on the port that will supply coking coal to India. Russia has been exporting coal through Murmansk, Vanino, Vostochny and Ust-Luga, of which Vanino and Vostochny are almost equidistant from India, as is Australia, but Murmansk-India (and also Ust-Luga-India) is almost double the distance between India and Australia. As a result, for a given cargo volume, Murmansk-India and Ust-Luga-India should deploy twice the number of vessels than Australia-India, but for Vanino-India or Vostochny-India there will hardly be any addition in the overall vessel demand.
To estimate the influence of the Russia-India deal on vessel demand we assume that all four Russian ports will supply coal to India in equal quantities. At the speed of 11 knots, 40 million tonnes of coking coal trade on Russia-India would employ 94 odd Panamax vessels whereas the same cargo volume on Australia-India would need 66 Panamaxes, implying an increase of 28 Panamax vessels annually.
However, we believe the entire agreement between Russia and India for 40 million tonnes of annual coking coal trade will be difficult to materialise. The share of coking coal in Russia’s overall coal exports has been limited to 12-14% over the past five years. This means that even if the country’s coal exports will rise by 12 million tonnes per annum, coking coal exports could rise by just 1-2 million tonnes annually.
Moreover, even if the country is able to meet the agreed quantity, it seems that Russia would supply a major proportion of the coking coal through port Vanino as the country’s major coal companies are increasing their coal handling capacity at this port. While Kolmar group plans to lift the annual coal handling capacity of the VaninoTransUgol terminal by 12 million tonnes by 2023, Albert Avdolyan plans to construct a coal terminal at Vanino with annual handling capacity of 30 million tonnes. As mentioned above vessel demand on Vanino-India will be no different from that on Australia-India and any shift of cargo away from Australia-India and towards Vanino-India will have little impact on dry bulk shipping demand.
Source: Drewry
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Wednesday, 16 December 20
INDONESIAN COAL RECOVERING - FITCH
Commenting on Indonesian coal, Fitch Ratings, the Indonesian 4,200 kcal index has begun to recover, improving to over USD 29 in November compared t ...
Tuesday, 15 December 20
NEWCASTLE PRICES RECOVER - FITCH
Prices for the benchmark Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg grade coal have rebounded to over USD 70/tonne since late November as major Asian economies ease l ...
Tuesday, 15 December 20
APAC COAL PRICES REBOUND ON IMPROVED DEMAND AND SUPPLY CUTS - FITCH RATINGS
Prices for the benchmark Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg grade coal have rebounded to over USD70/tonne since late November as major Asian economies ease loc ...
Tuesday, 15 December 20
CHINA EXTENDS FULL OPEN GESTURE TO IMPORTED COAL EXCEPT FOR AUSTRALIA - GLOBAL TIMES
Domestic, overseas suppliers will take up share with easier clearance
China's top economic planner on Saturday gave approval to ...
Monday, 14 December 20
PHILIPPINE BANK RCBC TO STOP LENDING FOR NEW COAL-FIRED POWER PROJECTS - MANILA BULLETIN
Yuchengco-led Rizal Commercial Banking Corporation (RCBC) has forthrightly declared that it will no longer extend financing to new coal-fired power ...
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- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- White Energy Company Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Planning Commission, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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