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Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Drewry believes this trade will have little or no impact on the demand for dry bulk shipping.
The Indian government plans to sharply lift the domestic production capacity of crude steel which could lead to even higher coking coal imports as it is a key raw material for steel production. The imports of coking coal have been rising over the past few years. While Australia is the predominant supplier of coking coal to India, accounting for around 80% of country’s imports of the commodity, the US and Canada supply the balance with Russia’s share at a negligible 1-2% annually. In 2020, the latter exported 1.2 million tonnes of coking coal to India.
As Indian steel mills are highly reliant on Australian coking coal, any disruption in the supply of the commodity in Australia could affect India’s steel production. The recent deal with Russia could be seen as an attempt by Indian coking coal traders to diversify their import portfolio and could eat into the share of Australian coal, leaving the shares of the US and Canada untouched.
Meanwhile, the Russian government plans to lift the country’s coal production to 668 million tonnes by 2035 from around 400 million tonnes in 2020 and thereby increase its presence in the Asian market. The country targets to lift its coal exports to 390 million tonnes from around 211 million tonnes in 2020, indicating that exports will rise by around 12 million tonnes per annum. In line with the country’s vison, some Russian companies such as Kolmar and Elga intend to ramp up their coal production volumes and port capacities.
Since Russia-India and Australia-India are predominantly Panamax routes, the impact of the recent deal on the demand for Panamax vessels will depend on the port that will supply coking coal to India. Russia has been exporting coal through Murmansk, Vanino, Vostochny and Ust-Luga, of which Vanino and Vostochny are almost equidistant from India, as is Australia, but Murmansk-India (and also Ust-Luga-India) is almost double the distance between India and Australia. As a result, for a given cargo volume, Murmansk-India and Ust-Luga-India should deploy twice the number of vessels than Australia-India, but for Vanino-India or Vostochny-India there will hardly be any addition in the overall vessel demand.
To estimate the influence of the Russia-India deal on vessel demand we assume that all four Russian ports will supply coal to India in equal quantities. At the speed of 11 knots, 40 million tonnes of coking coal trade on Russia-India would employ 94 odd Panamax vessels whereas the same cargo volume on Australia-India would need 66 Panamaxes, implying an increase of 28 Panamax vessels annually.
However, we believe the entire agreement between Russia and India for 40 million tonnes of annual coking coal trade will be difficult to materialise. The share of coking coal in Russia’s overall coal exports has been limited to 12-14% over the past five years. This means that even if the country’s coal exports will rise by 12 million tonnes per annum, coking coal exports could rise by just 1-2 million tonnes annually.
Moreover, even if the country is able to meet the agreed quantity, it seems that Russia would supply a major proportion of the coking coal through port Vanino as the country’s major coal companies are increasing their coal handling capacity at this port. While Kolmar group plans to lift the annual coal handling capacity of the VaninoTransUgol terminal by 12 million tonnes by 2023, Albert Avdolyan plans to construct a coal terminal at Vanino with annual handling capacity of 30 million tonnes. As mentioned above vessel demand on Vanino-India will be no different from that on Australia-India and any shift of cargo away from Australia-India and towards Vanino-India will have little impact on dry bulk shipping demand.
Source: Drewry
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Monday, 21 December 20
A REBOUND IN GLOBAL COAL DEMAND IN 2021 IS SET TO BE SHORT-LIVED, BUT NO IMMEDIATE DECLINE IN SIGHT - IEA
After a major drop in recent years, global coal demand is forecast to rise by 2.6% in 2021 before flattening out to 2025
A global ec ...
Friday, 18 December 20
AUSTRALIA PM WARNS OF ‘LOSE-LOSE’ IN ANY CHINA COAL SHIFT - REUTERS
Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison said any shift by China away from importing high quality Australian coal would be a “lose-lose&rdquo ...
Friday, 18 December 20
BIG OIL AND COAL EXPORTERS FACE RECKONING AS PARIS AGREEMENT TURNS FIVE - CNA
On Dec 12, more than 70 global leaders came together at the UN’s Climate Ambition Summit, marking the fifth anniversary of the Paris Agreemen ...
Friday, 18 December 20
SOUTH AFRICAN COAL EXPORTERS LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE ASIAN MARKETS - BANCHERO COSTA
South Africa is the fourth largest exporter of coal in the world, after Australia, Indonesia and Russia. In calendar 2019 the country exported a to ...
Thursday, 17 December 20
CHINA'S BAN IS LESS OF A THREAT TO AUSTRALIA'S COAL INDUSTRY THAN INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE AMBITION - IEEFA
Australian coal exporters will survive this near-term political fight but there are longterm structural headwinds
The decision by Ch ...
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- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Australian Coal Association
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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