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Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Drewry believes this trade will have little or no impact on the demand for dry bulk shipping.
The Indian government plans to sharply lift the domestic production capacity of crude steel which could lead to even higher coking coal imports as it is a key raw material for steel production. The imports of coking coal have been rising over the past few years. While Australia is the predominant supplier of coking coal to India, accounting for around 80% of country’s imports of the commodity, the US and Canada supply the balance with Russia’s share at a negligible 1-2% annually. In 2020, the latter exported 1.2 million tonnes of coking coal to India.
As Indian steel mills are highly reliant on Australian coking coal, any disruption in the supply of the commodity in Australia could affect India’s steel production. The recent deal with Russia could be seen as an attempt by Indian coking coal traders to diversify their import portfolio and could eat into the share of Australian coal, leaving the shares of the US and Canada untouched.
Meanwhile, the Russian government plans to lift the country’s coal production to 668 million tonnes by 2035 from around 400 million tonnes in 2020 and thereby increase its presence in the Asian market. The country targets to lift its coal exports to 390 million tonnes from around 211 million tonnes in 2020, indicating that exports will rise by around 12 million tonnes per annum. In line with the country’s vison, some Russian companies such as Kolmar and Elga intend to ramp up their coal production volumes and port capacities.
Since Russia-India and Australia-India are predominantly Panamax routes, the impact of the recent deal on the demand for Panamax vessels will depend on the port that will supply coking coal to India. Russia has been exporting coal through Murmansk, Vanino, Vostochny and Ust-Luga, of which Vanino and Vostochny are almost equidistant from India, as is Australia, but Murmansk-India (and also Ust-Luga-India) is almost double the distance between India and Australia. As a result, for a given cargo volume, Murmansk-India and Ust-Luga-India should deploy twice the number of vessels than Australia-India, but for Vanino-India or Vostochny-India there will hardly be any addition in the overall vessel demand.
To estimate the influence of the Russia-India deal on vessel demand we assume that all four Russian ports will supply coal to India in equal quantities. At the speed of 11 knots, 40 million tonnes of coking coal trade on Russia-India would employ 94 odd Panamax vessels whereas the same cargo volume on Australia-India would need 66 Panamaxes, implying an increase of 28 Panamax vessels annually.
However, we believe the entire agreement between Russia and India for 40 million tonnes of annual coking coal trade will be difficult to materialise. The share of coking coal in Russia’s overall coal exports has been limited to 12-14% over the past five years. This means that even if the country’s coal exports will rise by 12 million tonnes per annum, coking coal exports could rise by just 1-2 million tonnes annually.
Moreover, even if the country is able to meet the agreed quantity, it seems that Russia would supply a major proportion of the coking coal through port Vanino as the country’s major coal companies are increasing their coal handling capacity at this port. While Kolmar group plans to lift the annual coal handling capacity of the VaninoTransUgol terminal by 12 million tonnes by 2023, Albert Avdolyan plans to construct a coal terminal at Vanino with annual handling capacity of 30 million tonnes. As mentioned above vessel demand on Vanino-India will be no different from that on Australia-India and any shift of cargo away from Australia-India and towards Vanino-India will have little impact on dry bulk shipping demand.
Source: Drewry
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Tuesday, 22 December 20
SOUTHEAST ASIA'S COAL DEMAND IS SET TO EXPAND AFTER THE PANDEMIC-INDUCED HIATUS IN 2020 - IEA
Coal consumption in Southeast Asia has more than doubled in the last decade, with the largest growth in Indonesia and Viet Nam, followed by Malaysi ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
COAL DEMAND IS RISING QUICKLY IN PAKISTAN AND MORE SLOWLY IN BANGLADESH - IEA
Pakistan had 150 MW of installed coal power capacity in 2015. Since 2017, in addition to a few small plants for industry, Pakistan has commissioned ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
AFRICA PERSPECTIVE INDICATES NO MAJOR SHIFTS FOR COAL CONSUMPTION - IEA
Overall countries on the African continent consumed 197 Mt of coal in 2019, 12 Mt less (-6%) than 2018.
South Africa, the continent& ...
Monday, 21 December 20
COAL PRICES WITHSTAND DESPITE COVID-19 AND CHINESE IMPORT QUOTAS - IEA
Coal prices vary by region as well as by grade and quality. The price rebound starting in 2016 ended in 2018, moving in a downward trend in 2019. A ...
Monday, 21 December 20
COAL'S PARTIAL RECOVERY IS SET TO FADE AFTER 2021 - IEA
Global coal consumption is estimated to have fallen by 7%, or over 500 million tonnes, between 2018 in 2020. A decline of this size over a two-year ...
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- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
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