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Wednesday, 03 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 November is here and soon the all time seasonal favorite “all I want or Christmas is you” by Mariah Carey will be played in radio stations around the world repeatedly. Now the shipping question is, “will the tanker segment get what it wants this Christmas”?
For gas, dry and container Christmas has arrived very early in 2021 with earnings reaching levels not seen for more than a decade putting an overdue smile on ship owners faces.
So has the time come eventually for the tankers as well? There have been a few false alarms this year. One in early 2021 and one just before the summer. The activity on the SnP was mainly for Aframax and VLCCs and was purely driven by speculation or otherwise put “counter-cyclical” investment behavior, while the actual freight market remained subdued. That resulted into tanker asset values increasing especially on the Aframax size. And shortly after that we saw the same ships sold less than a month ago to be again for sale in an asset play attempt to flip them for a short profit.
We think that now is the time to buy. Compared to the dry bulk and container markets where the upcycle is mainly driven by demand, tankers on the other hand are mainly oil and products supply depended. As product tanker earnings seem to be taking the lead in the tankers recovery and hopefully soon the crude tankers will follow with late Q4 being the inflection point for an upward market reversal. The oil products destocking cycle is expected to come to an end during Q4, when winter restocking demand for middle distillates products will be at its peak, and refineries are expected to accelerate their runs to cover the energy deficit. Refineries are set to benefit from the increase in diesel and jet fuel prices a trend that should unfold through Q1 2022. The market seems well positioned for rising heating oil/ diesel consumption in the Atlantic, as well as jet fuel, and thus East to West middle distillates trade is expected to pick up. Naphtha trade is also expected to pick up in the short term, as naphtha has become cheaper than propane as a feedstock in the petrochemical industry benefiting the West/Med to East naphtha trade. Gasoline exports from Europe to the U.S. are also expected to rise on open arbitrage North West Europe- USAC on the forward curve and low inventories in the US. Gasoline flows from East of Suez into West Africa are expected to decline by the end of the year, as Asia is seeking to keep supplies to serve domestic demand, which is likely to lead to an increase in demand for European gasoline supplies from West Africa and US East Coast simultaneously.
Based on what we see and anticipate as stated above the increase of product prices and the need to refill the inventories will be key to the extent of the market recovery over the next year.
This could be a good timing to buy product carriers. We are starting to see increased SnP activity mainly for 12-14 year old MRs and 10 to 5 year old LR2s. Strange mix but this is where the majority of buyers are concentrating. MR1s are not yet of interest and on the LR1s buyers are reacting mostly to units less than 10 years old but there are not a lot for sale, at least not yet. Values have remained stable over the past two months but we do not expect them to stay put. It’s a small window to invest now where the market is still in favor of the buyers.
By Timos Papadimitriou,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 26 October 21
ENERGY CRISIS SHOWS COAL IS AN EXPENSIVE AND UNRELIABLE SOURCE OF ELECTRICITY GENERATION - IEEFA
Any knee-jerk reaction that urges more investment in coal completely misses the point
India is teetering on the brink of joining a growing glo ...
Tuesday, 26 October 21
CHINA TO INVESTIGATE ENERGY INDEX PROVIDERS IN BID TO TAME COAL PRICES - REUTERS
China said on Monday it will investigate energy price index providers as it urged coal industry participants to “strictly” meet contrac ...
Tuesday, 26 October 21
THERE IS PLENTY OF COAL AND GAS IN THE WORLD BUT A VOLATILE MARKET IS NOBODY'S FRIEND - IEEFA
Gas will be winding its way out of the energy system
Gas prices are continuing to surge around the world. The cost of gas is at unpr ...
Tuesday, 26 October 21
AUSTRALIA EXPORTED 51.6 MLN TONNES OF COAL TO INDIA IN FIRST 10 MONTHS, 19% OF ALL AUSTRALIAN COAL EXPORTS; CHINA WAS THE DESTINATION FOR JUST 0.7% - BANCHERO COSTA
2020 proved to be a truly terrible year for global seaborne coal trade. In 2021 things started pretty badly, but we are seeing increasing signs of ...
Monday, 25 October 21
A QUESTION OF POSSESSION - THE BALTIC EXCHANGE
Possession and tangibility are closely related concepts long established under English law. Yet a change to these concepts is around the corner. Th ...
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- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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