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Wednesday, 03 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 November is here and soon the all time seasonal favorite “all I want or Christmas is you” by Mariah Carey will be played in radio stations around the world repeatedly. Now the shipping question is, “will the tanker segment get what it wants this Christmas”?
For gas, dry and container Christmas has arrived very early in 2021 with earnings reaching levels not seen for more than a decade putting an overdue smile on ship owners faces.
So has the time come eventually for the tankers as well? There have been a few false alarms this year. One in early 2021 and one just before the summer. The activity on the SnP was mainly for Aframax and VLCCs and was purely driven by speculation or otherwise put “counter-cyclical” investment behavior, while the actual freight market remained subdued. That resulted into tanker asset values increasing especially on the Aframax size. And shortly after that we saw the same ships sold less than a month ago to be again for sale in an asset play attempt to flip them for a short profit.
We think that now is the time to buy. Compared to the dry bulk and container markets where the upcycle is mainly driven by demand, tankers on the other hand are mainly oil and products supply depended. As product tanker earnings seem to be taking the lead in the tankers recovery and hopefully soon the crude tankers will follow with late Q4 being the inflection point for an upward market reversal. The oil products destocking cycle is expected to come to an end during Q4, when winter restocking demand for middle distillates products will be at its peak, and refineries are expected to accelerate their runs to cover the energy deficit. Refineries are set to benefit from the increase in diesel and jet fuel prices a trend that should unfold through Q1 2022. The market seems well positioned for rising heating oil/ diesel consumption in the Atlantic, as well as jet fuel, and thus East to West middle distillates trade is expected to pick up. Naphtha trade is also expected to pick up in the short term, as naphtha has become cheaper than propane as a feedstock in the petrochemical industry benefiting the West/Med to East naphtha trade. Gasoline exports from Europe to the U.S. are also expected to rise on open arbitrage North West Europe- USAC on the forward curve and low inventories in the US. Gasoline flows from East of Suez into West Africa are expected to decline by the end of the year, as Asia is seeking to keep supplies to serve domestic demand, which is likely to lead to an increase in demand for European gasoline supplies from West Africa and US East Coast simultaneously.
Based on what we see and anticipate as stated above the increase of product prices and the need to refill the inventories will be key to the extent of the market recovery over the next year.
This could be a good timing to buy product carriers. We are starting to see increased SnP activity mainly for 12-14 year old MRs and 10 to 5 year old LR2s. Strange mix but this is where the majority of buyers are concentrating. MR1s are not yet of interest and on the LR1s buyers are reacting mostly to units less than 10 years old but there are not a lot for sale, at least not yet. Values have remained stable over the past two months but we do not expect them to stay put. It’s a small window to invest now where the market is still in favor of the buyers.
By Timos Papadimitriou,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 04 November 21
FASTER DECARBONISATION: BACK TO BASICS FOR THE MINING INDUSTRY? - WOOD MACKENZIE
To the uninitiated, rugby is a technical and complicated game. As young schoolboys it was all a wee bit confusing and we invariably ended up on the ...
Wednesday, 03 November 21
CHINA TO LAUNCH NEW DATA MONITORING SYSTEM, TARGETING COAL MARKET SPECULATION, HOARDING - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s top economic planner announced on Sunday a new data system for supervising the implementation of medium- and long-term contracts of c ...
Wednesday, 03 November 21
CHINA’S STATE PLANNER SAYS COAL SUPPLY IMPROVING, PRICES STABILISING - REUTERS
China’s coal supply situation has seen significant improvement with joint efforts from coal producers, logistics and downstream users, while ...
Wednesday, 03 November 21
HIGHER COKING COAL PRICES TO PARE PROFITABILITY OF STEELMAKERS IN SECOND HALF OF FY22 - CRISIL RATINGS
The operating margin of primary steelmakers will reduce by a third to 24-26% in the second half of this fiscal versus the first half as input cost ...
Monday, 01 November 21
COAL PRICES HAVE FURTHER ROOM TO DROP: TOP ECONOMIC PLANNER - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s top economic planner said coal prices have further room to drop on Friday, as the most traded coal futures dropped to below 1,000 yua ...
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
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