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Wednesday, 03 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 November is here and soon the all time seasonal favorite “all I want or Christmas is you” by Mariah Carey will be played in radio stations around the world repeatedly. Now the shipping question is, “will the tanker segment get what it wants this Christmas”?
For gas, dry and container Christmas has arrived very early in 2021 with earnings reaching levels not seen for more than a decade putting an overdue smile on ship owners faces.
So has the time come eventually for the tankers as well? There have been a few false alarms this year. One in early 2021 and one just before the summer. The activity on the SnP was mainly for Aframax and VLCCs and was purely driven by speculation or otherwise put “counter-cyclical” investment behavior, while the actual freight market remained subdued. That resulted into tanker asset values increasing especially on the Aframax size. And shortly after that we saw the same ships sold less than a month ago to be again for sale in an asset play attempt to flip them for a short profit.
We think that now is the time to buy. Compared to the dry bulk and container markets where the upcycle is mainly driven by demand, tankers on the other hand are mainly oil and products supply depended. As product tanker earnings seem to be taking the lead in the tankers recovery and hopefully soon the crude tankers will follow with late Q4 being the inflection point for an upward market reversal. The oil products destocking cycle is expected to come to an end during Q4, when winter restocking demand for middle distillates products will be at its peak, and refineries are expected to accelerate their runs to cover the energy deficit. Refineries are set to benefit from the increase in diesel and jet fuel prices a trend that should unfold through Q1 2022. The market seems well positioned for rising heating oil/ diesel consumption in the Atlantic, as well as jet fuel, and thus East to West middle distillates trade is expected to pick up. Naphtha trade is also expected to pick up in the short term, as naphtha has become cheaper than propane as a feedstock in the petrochemical industry benefiting the West/Med to East naphtha trade. Gasoline exports from Europe to the U.S. are also expected to rise on open arbitrage North West Europe- USAC on the forward curve and low inventories in the US. Gasoline flows from East of Suez into West Africa are expected to decline by the end of the year, as Asia is seeking to keep supplies to serve domestic demand, which is likely to lead to an increase in demand for European gasoline supplies from West Africa and US East Coast simultaneously.
Based on what we see and anticipate as stated above the increase of product prices and the need to refill the inventories will be key to the extent of the market recovery over the next year.
This could be a good timing to buy product carriers. We are starting to see increased SnP activity mainly for 12-14 year old MRs and 10 to 5 year old LR2s. Strange mix but this is where the majority of buyers are concentrating. MR1s are not yet of interest and on the LR1s buyers are reacting mostly to units less than 10 years old but there are not a lot for sale, at least not yet. Values have remained stable over the past two months but we do not expect them to stay put. It’s a small window to invest now where the market is still in favor of the buyers.
By Timos Papadimitriou,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 04 November 21
FASTER DECARBONISATION: BACK TO BASICS FOR THE MINING INDUSTRY? - WOOD MACKENZIE
To the uninitiated, rugby is a technical and complicated game. As young schoolboys it was all a wee bit confusing and we invariably ended up on the ...
Wednesday, 03 November 21
CHINA TO LAUNCH NEW DATA MONITORING SYSTEM, TARGETING COAL MARKET SPECULATION, HOARDING - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s top economic planner announced on Sunday a new data system for supervising the implementation of medium- and long-term contracts of c ...
Wednesday, 03 November 21
CHINA’S STATE PLANNER SAYS COAL SUPPLY IMPROVING, PRICES STABILISING - REUTERS
China’s coal supply situation has seen significant improvement with joint efforts from coal producers, logistics and downstream users, while ...
Wednesday, 03 November 21
HIGHER COKING COAL PRICES TO PARE PROFITABILITY OF STEELMAKERS IN SECOND HALF OF FY22 - CRISIL RATINGS
The operating margin of primary steelmakers will reduce by a third to 24-26% in the second half of this fiscal versus the first half as input cost ...
Monday, 01 November 21
COAL PRICES HAVE FURTHER ROOM TO DROP: TOP ECONOMIC PLANNER - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s top economic planner said coal prices have further room to drop on Friday, as the most traded coal futures dropped to below 1,000 yua ...
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Coal Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
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