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Wednesday, 03 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 November is here and soon the all time seasonal favorite “all I want or Christmas is you” by Mariah Carey will be played in radio stations around the world repeatedly. Now the shipping question is, “will the tanker segment get what it wants this Christmas”?
For gas, dry and container Christmas has arrived very early in 2021 with earnings reaching levels not seen for more than a decade putting an overdue smile on ship owners faces.
So has the time come eventually for the tankers as well? There have been a few false alarms this year. One in early 2021 and one just before the summer. The activity on the SnP was mainly for Aframax and VLCCs and was purely driven by speculation or otherwise put “counter-cyclical” investment behavior, while the actual freight market remained subdued. That resulted into tanker asset values increasing especially on the Aframax size. And shortly after that we saw the same ships sold less than a month ago to be again for sale in an asset play attempt to flip them for a short profit.
We think that now is the time to buy. Compared to the dry bulk and container markets where the upcycle is mainly driven by demand, tankers on the other hand are mainly oil and products supply depended. As product tanker earnings seem to be taking the lead in the tankers recovery and hopefully soon the crude tankers will follow with late Q4 being the inflection point for an upward market reversal. The oil products destocking cycle is expected to come to an end during Q4, when winter restocking demand for middle distillates products will be at its peak, and refineries are expected to accelerate their runs to cover the energy deficit. Refineries are set to benefit from the increase in diesel and jet fuel prices a trend that should unfold through Q1 2022. The market seems well positioned for rising heating oil/ diesel consumption in the Atlantic, as well as jet fuel, and thus East to West middle distillates trade is expected to pick up. Naphtha trade is also expected to pick up in the short term, as naphtha has become cheaper than propane as a feedstock in the petrochemical industry benefiting the West/Med to East naphtha trade. Gasoline exports from Europe to the U.S. are also expected to rise on open arbitrage North West Europe- USAC on the forward curve and low inventories in the US. Gasoline flows from East of Suez into West Africa are expected to decline by the end of the year, as Asia is seeking to keep supplies to serve domestic demand, which is likely to lead to an increase in demand for European gasoline supplies from West Africa and US East Coast simultaneously.
Based on what we see and anticipate as stated above the increase of product prices and the need to refill the inventories will be key to the extent of the market recovery over the next year.
This could be a good timing to buy product carriers. We are starting to see increased SnP activity mainly for 12-14 year old MRs and 10 to 5 year old LR2s. Strange mix but this is where the majority of buyers are concentrating. MR1s are not yet of interest and on the LR1s buyers are reacting mostly to units less than 10 years old but there are not a lot for sale, at least not yet. Values have remained stable over the past two months but we do not expect them to stay put. It’s a small window to invest now where the market is still in favor of the buyers.
By Timos Papadimitriou,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 30 October 21
CHINA'S COAL PRICES SEE BIGGEST WEEKLY FALL IN MORE THAN 5 YEARS - REUTERS
China’s coal futures prices saw their biggest fall in more than five years after the powerful state planner said there is still room to adjus ...
Saturday, 30 October 21
G-20 LEADERS PREPARE STATEMENT TO STOP FUNDING FOREIGN COAL PLANTS - BLOOMBERG
Leaders of the Group of 20 wealthy economies are preparing to pledge to stop funding foreign coal-fired plants, but are still wrangling over climat ...
Friday, 29 October 21
APAC THERMAL COAL SUPPLY TO REMAIN TIGHT AS WINTER LOOMS - FITCH RATINGS
APAC thermal coal prices have surged, hitting historically high levels. The benchmark Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg grade coal reached USD228/tonne in mid ...
Thursday, 28 October 21
CANADA BAN ON SHIPPING COAL WOULD EQUAL SCRAPPING AS MANY AS 3 MILLION CARS - IEEFA
Canada ban on shipping coal would equal scrapping as many as 3 million cars
Change in Canadian policy could have major implications ...
Tuesday, 26 October 21
CHINA'S COAL-RICH SHANXI BEEFS UP COAL PRODUCTION - XINHUA
Major coal producers in north China’s Shanxi Province, a leading coal-producing region of the country, have beefed up production to ensure en ...
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- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
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- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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