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Wednesday, 03 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 November is here and soon the all time seasonal favorite “all I want or Christmas is you” by Mariah Carey will be played in radio stations around the world repeatedly. Now the shipping question is, “will the tanker segment get what it wants this Christmas”?
For gas, dry and container Christmas has arrived very early in 2021 with earnings reaching levels not seen for more than a decade putting an overdue smile on ship owners faces.
So has the time come eventually for the tankers as well? There have been a few false alarms this year. One in early 2021 and one just before the summer. The activity on the SnP was mainly for Aframax and VLCCs and was purely driven by speculation or otherwise put “counter-cyclical” investment behavior, while the actual freight market remained subdued. That resulted into tanker asset values increasing especially on the Aframax size. And shortly after that we saw the same ships sold less than a month ago to be again for sale in an asset play attempt to flip them for a short profit.
We think that now is the time to buy. Compared to the dry bulk and container markets where the upcycle is mainly driven by demand, tankers on the other hand are mainly oil and products supply depended. As product tanker earnings seem to be taking the lead in the tankers recovery and hopefully soon the crude tankers will follow with late Q4 being the inflection point for an upward market reversal. The oil products destocking cycle is expected to come to an end during Q4, when winter restocking demand for middle distillates products will be at its peak, and refineries are expected to accelerate their runs to cover the energy deficit. Refineries are set to benefit from the increase in diesel and jet fuel prices a trend that should unfold through Q1 2022. The market seems well positioned for rising heating oil/ diesel consumption in the Atlantic, as well as jet fuel, and thus East to West middle distillates trade is expected to pick up. Naphtha trade is also expected to pick up in the short term, as naphtha has become cheaper than propane as a feedstock in the petrochemical industry benefiting the West/Med to East naphtha trade. Gasoline exports from Europe to the U.S. are also expected to rise on open arbitrage North West Europe- USAC on the forward curve and low inventories in the US. Gasoline flows from East of Suez into West Africa are expected to decline by the end of the year, as Asia is seeking to keep supplies to serve domestic demand, which is likely to lead to an increase in demand for European gasoline supplies from West Africa and US East Coast simultaneously.
Based on what we see and anticipate as stated above the increase of product prices and the need to refill the inventories will be key to the extent of the market recovery over the next year.
This could be a good timing to buy product carriers. We are starting to see increased SnP activity mainly for 12-14 year old MRs and 10 to 5 year old LR2s. Strange mix but this is where the majority of buyers are concentrating. MR1s are not yet of interest and on the LR1s buyers are reacting mostly to units less than 10 years old but there are not a lot for sale, at least not yet. Values have remained stable over the past two months but we do not expect them to stay put. It’s a small window to invest now where the market is still in favor of the buyers.
By Timos Papadimitriou,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 25 October 21
CHINA VOWS TO SEVERELY PUNISH MARKET VIOLATIONS AMID LOW COAL FUTURES PRICES - GLOBAL TIMES
Domestic coal futures had plunged for three consecutive trading days after the government vowed to crack down on soaring prices, and China’s ...
Monday, 25 October 21
FARMERS MAY JOIN THE COAL COMMODITY MARKET TO REDUCE RISKS - GLOBAL TIMES
A recent trip to by the Global Times to East China’s Shandong Province to get a glimpse of China’s coal supply chain revealed a surpris ...
Monday, 25 October 21
CHINA COAL PRICES MARK WORST WEEK SINCE MAY ON GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal futures plunged on Friday and turned in their worst week in five months, following Beijing’s strongest interventio ...
Friday, 22 October 21
THE BIG PICTURE: ENERGY MARKETS - BREAK WAVE ADVISORS
The shipping markets have been pulled further into wild markets of coal and other energy sources. Given how nebulous this sector is, it’s alw ...
Friday, 22 October 21
CHINA WANTS TO COOL COAL PRICES. SIMILAR MOVES FOR METALS, CRUDE FAILED - REUTERS
China’s latest attempt to lower runaway commodity prices, this time for thermal coal, is likely to follow a familiar pattern of initial succe ...
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- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
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