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Wednesday, 03 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 November is here and soon the all time seasonal favorite “all I want or Christmas is you” by Mariah Carey will be played in radio stations around the world repeatedly. Now the shipping question is, “will the tanker segment get what it wants this Christmas”?
For gas, dry and container Christmas has arrived very early in 2021 with earnings reaching levels not seen for more than a decade putting an overdue smile on ship owners faces.
So has the time come eventually for the tankers as well? There have been a few false alarms this year. One in early 2021 and one just before the summer. The activity on the SnP was mainly for Aframax and VLCCs and was purely driven by speculation or otherwise put “counter-cyclical” investment behavior, while the actual freight market remained subdued. That resulted into tanker asset values increasing especially on the Aframax size. And shortly after that we saw the same ships sold less than a month ago to be again for sale in an asset play attempt to flip them for a short profit.
We think that now is the time to buy. Compared to the dry bulk and container markets where the upcycle is mainly driven by demand, tankers on the other hand are mainly oil and products supply depended. As product tanker earnings seem to be taking the lead in the tankers recovery and hopefully soon the crude tankers will follow with late Q4 being the inflection point for an upward market reversal. The oil products destocking cycle is expected to come to an end during Q4, when winter restocking demand for middle distillates products will be at its peak, and refineries are expected to accelerate their runs to cover the energy deficit. Refineries are set to benefit from the increase in diesel and jet fuel prices a trend that should unfold through Q1 2022. The market seems well positioned for rising heating oil/ diesel consumption in the Atlantic, as well as jet fuel, and thus East to West middle distillates trade is expected to pick up. Naphtha trade is also expected to pick up in the short term, as naphtha has become cheaper than propane as a feedstock in the petrochemical industry benefiting the West/Med to East naphtha trade. Gasoline exports from Europe to the U.S. are also expected to rise on open arbitrage North West Europe- USAC on the forward curve and low inventories in the US. Gasoline flows from East of Suez into West Africa are expected to decline by the end of the year, as Asia is seeking to keep supplies to serve domestic demand, which is likely to lead to an increase in demand for European gasoline supplies from West Africa and US East Coast simultaneously.
Based on what we see and anticipate as stated above the increase of product prices and the need to refill the inventories will be key to the extent of the market recovery over the next year.
This could be a good timing to buy product carriers. We are starting to see increased SnP activity mainly for 12-14 year old MRs and 10 to 5 year old LR2s. Strange mix but this is where the majority of buyers are concentrating. MR1s are not yet of interest and on the LR1s buyers are reacting mostly to units less than 10 years old but there are not a lot for sale, at least not yet. Values have remained stable over the past two months but we do not expect them to stay put. It’s a small window to invest now where the market is still in favor of the buyers.
By Timos Papadimitriou,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 22 October 21
HARD COAL REMAINS AN IMPORTANT FACTOR FOR SECURITY OF SUPPLY - COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION, GERMANY
- Hard coal remains an important factor for security of supply
- Increase of around 35% in hard-coal-fired power generation in the first three ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
CHINA'S COAL SHORTAGE TO EASE IN COMING MONTHS, INDUSTRY BODY SAYS - REUTERS
China’s coal shortage will likely ease in coming months, with domestic production and imports already showing signs of picking up, a coal ind ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
CHINA'S RAW COAL OUTPUT DROPS IN SEPTEMBER - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output dropped 0.9 percent year on year to 330 million tonnes last month, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
OVER-RELIANCE ON COAL IN OUR POWER MIX HURTING INDIA - LIVEMINT
In spite of the renewables push, coal still accounts for about 50% of India’s installed power capacity. That means a simultaneous demand and ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
CHINA COAL HITS RECORD HIGH AMID TIGHT SUPPLIES - REUTERS
China coal prices hit a record high on Tuesday buoyed by a widening power crunch and cold weather despite Beijing’s efforts to bolster supply ...
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Planning Commission, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
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