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Wednesday, 03 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 November is here and soon the all time seasonal favorite “all I want or Christmas is you” by Mariah Carey will be played in radio stations around the world repeatedly. Now the shipping question is, “will the tanker segment get what it wants this Christmas”?
For gas, dry and container Christmas has arrived very early in 2021 with earnings reaching levels not seen for more than a decade putting an overdue smile on ship owners faces.
So has the time come eventually for the tankers as well? There have been a few false alarms this year. One in early 2021 and one just before the summer. The activity on the SnP was mainly for Aframax and VLCCs and was purely driven by speculation or otherwise put “counter-cyclical” investment behavior, while the actual freight market remained subdued. That resulted into tanker asset values increasing especially on the Aframax size. And shortly after that we saw the same ships sold less than a month ago to be again for sale in an asset play attempt to flip them for a short profit.
We think that now is the time to buy. Compared to the dry bulk and container markets where the upcycle is mainly driven by demand, tankers on the other hand are mainly oil and products supply depended. As product tanker earnings seem to be taking the lead in the tankers recovery and hopefully soon the crude tankers will follow with late Q4 being the inflection point for an upward market reversal. The oil products destocking cycle is expected to come to an end during Q4, when winter restocking demand for middle distillates products will be at its peak, and refineries are expected to accelerate their runs to cover the energy deficit. Refineries are set to benefit from the increase in diesel and jet fuel prices a trend that should unfold through Q1 2022. The market seems well positioned for rising heating oil/ diesel consumption in the Atlantic, as well as jet fuel, and thus East to West middle distillates trade is expected to pick up. Naphtha trade is also expected to pick up in the short term, as naphtha has become cheaper than propane as a feedstock in the petrochemical industry benefiting the West/Med to East naphtha trade. Gasoline exports from Europe to the U.S. are also expected to rise on open arbitrage North West Europe- USAC on the forward curve and low inventories in the US. Gasoline flows from East of Suez into West Africa are expected to decline by the end of the year, as Asia is seeking to keep supplies to serve domestic demand, which is likely to lead to an increase in demand for European gasoline supplies from West Africa and US East Coast simultaneously.
Based on what we see and anticipate as stated above the increase of product prices and the need to refill the inventories will be key to the extent of the market recovery over the next year.
This could be a good timing to buy product carriers. We are starting to see increased SnP activity mainly for 12-14 year old MRs and 10 to 5 year old LR2s. Strange mix but this is where the majority of buyers are concentrating. MR1s are not yet of interest and on the LR1s buyers are reacting mostly to units less than 10 years old but there are not a lot for sale, at least not yet. Values have remained stable over the past two months but we do not expect them to stay put. It’s a small window to invest now where the market is still in favor of the buyers.
By Timos Papadimitriou,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 11 November 21
ASIA COAL POWER PIPELINE TO SHRINK BY TWO THIRDS AFTER CHINA FINANCE CUT - REUTERS
Asia’s pipeline of proposed coal-fired power plants is expected to shrink from 65 gigawatts to 22 gigawatts following China’s pledge to ...
Tuesday, 09 November 21
ASIA-PACIFIC IS HOME TO SOME OF THE WORLD'S LARGEST CARBON-EMITTERS - 2 CHARTS SHOW ITS RELIANCE ON COAL - CNBC
Asia-Pacific is home to some of the world’s largest carbon emitters — and experts say much of global efforts to fight climate change de ...
Tuesday, 09 November 21
CHINA DAILY COAL OUTPUT HITS MULTI-YEAR PEAK, PRICES EXPECTED TO FALL - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output hit 11.93 million tonnes last week, a multi-year high as more capacity returned to operation, the state planner sai ...
Thursday, 04 November 21
CHINA'S COAL MARKET SEES SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENTS: NDRC - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s top economic planner has declared initial success in its efforts to ensure coal supply and stabilize prices, saying that daily coal o ...
Thursday, 04 November 21
CHINA THERMAL COAL PRICES RISE AFTER FALLING FOR 10 DAYS - REUTERS
China thermal coal futures rebounded on Wednesday after falling for 10 days on an expected jump in fuel demand to meet heating needs amid forecasts ...
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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