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Wednesday, 03 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 November is here and soon the all time seasonal favorite “all I want or Christmas is you” by Mariah Carey will be played in radio stations around the world repeatedly. Now the shipping question is, “will the tanker segment get what it wants this Christmas”?
For gas, dry and container Christmas has arrived very early in 2021 with earnings reaching levels not seen for more than a decade putting an overdue smile on ship owners faces.
So has the time come eventually for the tankers as well? There have been a few false alarms this year. One in early 2021 and one just before the summer. The activity on the SnP was mainly for Aframax and VLCCs and was purely driven by speculation or otherwise put “counter-cyclical” investment behavior, while the actual freight market remained subdued. That resulted into tanker asset values increasing especially on the Aframax size. And shortly after that we saw the same ships sold less than a month ago to be again for sale in an asset play attempt to flip them for a short profit.
We think that now is the time to buy. Compared to the dry bulk and container markets where the upcycle is mainly driven by demand, tankers on the other hand are mainly oil and products supply depended. As product tanker earnings seem to be taking the lead in the tankers recovery and hopefully soon the crude tankers will follow with late Q4 being the inflection point for an upward market reversal. The oil products destocking cycle is expected to come to an end during Q4, when winter restocking demand for middle distillates products will be at its peak, and refineries are expected to accelerate their runs to cover the energy deficit. Refineries are set to benefit from the increase in diesel and jet fuel prices a trend that should unfold through Q1 2022. The market seems well positioned for rising heating oil/ diesel consumption in the Atlantic, as well as jet fuel, and thus East to West middle distillates trade is expected to pick up. Naphtha trade is also expected to pick up in the short term, as naphtha has become cheaper than propane as a feedstock in the petrochemical industry benefiting the West/Med to East naphtha trade. Gasoline exports from Europe to the U.S. are also expected to rise on open arbitrage North West Europe- USAC on the forward curve and low inventories in the US. Gasoline flows from East of Suez into West Africa are expected to decline by the end of the year, as Asia is seeking to keep supplies to serve domestic demand, which is likely to lead to an increase in demand for European gasoline supplies from West Africa and US East Coast simultaneously.
Based on what we see and anticipate as stated above the increase of product prices and the need to refill the inventories will be key to the extent of the market recovery over the next year.
This could be a good timing to buy product carriers. We are starting to see increased SnP activity mainly for 12-14 year old MRs and 10 to 5 year old LR2s. Strange mix but this is where the majority of buyers are concentrating. MR1s are not yet of interest and on the LR1s buyers are reacting mostly to units less than 10 years old but there are not a lot for sale, at least not yet. Values have remained stable over the past two months but we do not expect them to stay put. It’s a small window to invest now where the market is still in favor of the buyers.
By Timos Papadimitriou,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 24 November 21
WHY THIS MINING ANALYST IS UPBEAT ON THE IRON ORE PRICE FORECAST - MOTLEY FOOL
In many ways, 2021 can be called the year of the iron ore price. Much of the talk of the ASX town this year has revolved around this key economic m ...
Wednesday, 24 November 21
PRICE OF CHINA’S COAL FUTURE DROPS BY 60% AS NATIONWIDE DAILY OUTPUT REACHES OVER 12 MILLION TONS: NDRC - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s daily coal output has now stabilized after reaching over 12 million tons and the price of coal futures has declined to 800 yuan ($125 ...
Friday, 19 November 21
CHINA: COAL SUPPLIES TO STABILIZE FOR COMING COLD SEASON
China is capable of ensuring stable coal supplies this winter and next spring with the increase in coal production and the rising stockpiles at pow ...
Wednesday, 17 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
It has been another declining week for the dry bulk market and evidently, we are seeing asset values gradually losing momentum as well. Following a ...
Tuesday, 16 November 21
EARNINGS RECOVERY IN INDONESIAN COAL TO CONTINUE THROUGH 2021, BUT SLOW IN 2022 - FITCH RATINGS
The recovery in the operating and financial performance of Indonesian coal miners and coal contractors is likely to slow in 2022, but coal prices s ...
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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