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Wednesday, 03 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 November is here and soon the all time seasonal favorite “all I want or Christmas is you” by Mariah Carey will be played in radio stations around the world repeatedly. Now the shipping question is, “will the tanker segment get what it wants this Christmas”?
For gas, dry and container Christmas has arrived very early in 2021 with earnings reaching levels not seen for more than a decade putting an overdue smile on ship owners faces.
So has the time come eventually for the tankers as well? There have been a few false alarms this year. One in early 2021 and one just before the summer. The activity on the SnP was mainly for Aframax and VLCCs and was purely driven by speculation or otherwise put “counter-cyclical” investment behavior, while the actual freight market remained subdued. That resulted into tanker asset values increasing especially on the Aframax size. And shortly after that we saw the same ships sold less than a month ago to be again for sale in an asset play attempt to flip them for a short profit.
We think that now is the time to buy. Compared to the dry bulk and container markets where the upcycle is mainly driven by demand, tankers on the other hand are mainly oil and products supply depended. As product tanker earnings seem to be taking the lead in the tankers recovery and hopefully soon the crude tankers will follow with late Q4 being the inflection point for an upward market reversal. The oil products destocking cycle is expected to come to an end during Q4, when winter restocking demand for middle distillates products will be at its peak, and refineries are expected to accelerate their runs to cover the energy deficit. Refineries are set to benefit from the increase in diesel and jet fuel prices a trend that should unfold through Q1 2022. The market seems well positioned for rising heating oil/ diesel consumption in the Atlantic, as well as jet fuel, and thus East to West middle distillates trade is expected to pick up. Naphtha trade is also expected to pick up in the short term, as naphtha has become cheaper than propane as a feedstock in the petrochemical industry benefiting the West/Med to East naphtha trade. Gasoline exports from Europe to the U.S. are also expected to rise on open arbitrage North West Europe- USAC on the forward curve and low inventories in the US. Gasoline flows from East of Suez into West Africa are expected to decline by the end of the year, as Asia is seeking to keep supplies to serve domestic demand, which is likely to lead to an increase in demand for European gasoline supplies from West Africa and US East Coast simultaneously.
Based on what we see and anticipate as stated above the increase of product prices and the need to refill the inventories will be key to the extent of the market recovery over the next year.
This could be a good timing to buy product carriers. We are starting to see increased SnP activity mainly for 12-14 year old MRs and 10 to 5 year old LR2s. Strange mix but this is where the majority of buyers are concentrating. MR1s are not yet of interest and on the LR1s buyers are reacting mostly to units less than 10 years old but there are not a lot for sale, at least not yet. Values have remained stable over the past two months but we do not expect them to stay put. It’s a small window to invest now where the market is still in favor of the buyers.
By Timos Papadimitriou,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 01 December 21
SUPPLY OF COAL TO POWER PLANTS IN NOV MORE THAN CONSUMPTION: JOSHI - PTI
The supply of coal to power plants in November is more than the consumption, resulting in rise in stock of dry fuel at power plants, and this trend ...
Wednesday, 01 December 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Essentially, anyone involved in the shipping and commodity markets still struggle with commodity supply issues and skyrocketing prices in the conte ...
Tuesday, 30 November 21
CHINA'S TOP ECONOMIC PLANNER SUMMONS COAL PRODUCERS; LONG-TERM PRICING MECHANISM IS ADVISED - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s top economic planner the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said on Monday that they summoned coal producers for a hea ...
Tuesday, 30 November 21
CHINA'S COAL PRICES PLUNGE AFTER GOVT SIGNALS MORE PRICE REGULATION - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal futures dropped 5.6% on Monday after the state economic planner signaled further regulations for prices of the dirty pow ...
Friday, 26 November 21
AS COAL MARKET STABILIZES, CHINA STEPS UP NATURAL GAS SUPPLY TO MEET WINTER DEMAND - GLOBAL TIMES
The daily supply of natural gas in China has exceeded 1 billion cubic meters (bcm) since November began, up 11 percent year-on-year, data from stat ...
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- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Coal Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The University of Queensland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
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