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Wednesday, 03 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 November is here and soon the all time seasonal favorite “all I want or Christmas is you” by Mariah Carey will be played in radio stations around the world repeatedly. Now the shipping question is, “will the tanker segment get what it wants this Christmas”?
For gas, dry and container Christmas has arrived very early in 2021 with earnings reaching levels not seen for more than a decade putting an overdue smile on ship owners faces.
So has the time come eventually for the tankers as well? There have been a few false alarms this year. One in early 2021 and one just before the summer. The activity on the SnP was mainly for Aframax and VLCCs and was purely driven by speculation or otherwise put “counter-cyclical” investment behavior, while the actual freight market remained subdued. That resulted into tanker asset values increasing especially on the Aframax size. And shortly after that we saw the same ships sold less than a month ago to be again for sale in an asset play attempt to flip them for a short profit.
We think that now is the time to buy. Compared to the dry bulk and container markets where the upcycle is mainly driven by demand, tankers on the other hand are mainly oil and products supply depended. As product tanker earnings seem to be taking the lead in the tankers recovery and hopefully soon the crude tankers will follow with late Q4 being the inflection point for an upward market reversal. The oil products destocking cycle is expected to come to an end during Q4, when winter restocking demand for middle distillates products will be at its peak, and refineries are expected to accelerate their runs to cover the energy deficit. Refineries are set to benefit from the increase in diesel and jet fuel prices a trend that should unfold through Q1 2022. The market seems well positioned for rising heating oil/ diesel consumption in the Atlantic, as well as jet fuel, and thus East to West middle distillates trade is expected to pick up. Naphtha trade is also expected to pick up in the short term, as naphtha has become cheaper than propane as a feedstock in the petrochemical industry benefiting the West/Med to East naphtha trade. Gasoline exports from Europe to the U.S. are also expected to rise on open arbitrage North West Europe- USAC on the forward curve and low inventories in the US. Gasoline flows from East of Suez into West Africa are expected to decline by the end of the year, as Asia is seeking to keep supplies to serve domestic demand, which is likely to lead to an increase in demand for European gasoline supplies from West Africa and US East Coast simultaneously.
Based on what we see and anticipate as stated above the increase of product prices and the need to refill the inventories will be key to the extent of the market recovery over the next year.
This could be a good timing to buy product carriers. We are starting to see increased SnP activity mainly for 12-14 year old MRs and 10 to 5 year old LR2s. Strange mix but this is where the majority of buyers are concentrating. MR1s are not yet of interest and on the LR1s buyers are reacting mostly to units less than 10 years old but there are not a lot for sale, at least not yet. Values have remained stable over the past two months but we do not expect them to stay put. It’s a small window to invest now where the market is still in favor of the buyers.
By Timos Papadimitriou,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 16 November 21
INDONESIA’S 2022 COAL USE FOR POWER GENERATION SET TO RISE 3% - REUTERS
Indonesia’s coal consumption for power generation is likely to rise by 3.1% next year compared to 2021, the head of the country’s state ...
Tuesday, 16 November 21
CHINA'S MONTHLY COAL OUTPUT RISES TO HIGHEST SINCE MARCH 2015 - REUTERS
China’s October coal output rose to the highest since at least March 2015, after Beijing approved a raft of coal mine expansions to tame reco ...
Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Dre ...
Friday, 12 November 21
ASIA COAL POWER PIPELINE TO SHRINK BY TWO THIRDS AFTER CHINA FINANCE CUT - REUTERS
Asia’s pipeline of proposed coal-fired power plants is expected to shrink from 65 gigawatts to 22 gigawatts following China’s pledge to ...
Friday, 12 November 21
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE TOPS $215 A TON; THE HIGHEST COAL PRICE IN HISTORY
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference in a steep climb for most of second half of 2021 as it reached a pinnacle of $215.01 in November 2021 ...
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Planning Commission, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
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