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Wednesday, 03 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 November is here and soon the all time seasonal favorite “all I want or Christmas is you” by Mariah Carey will be played in radio stations around the world repeatedly. Now the shipping question is, “will the tanker segment get what it wants this Christmas”?
For gas, dry and container Christmas has arrived very early in 2021 with earnings reaching levels not seen for more than a decade putting an overdue smile on ship owners faces.
So has the time come eventually for the tankers as well? There have been a few false alarms this year. One in early 2021 and one just before the summer. The activity on the SnP was mainly for Aframax and VLCCs and was purely driven by speculation or otherwise put “counter-cyclical” investment behavior, while the actual freight market remained subdued. That resulted into tanker asset values increasing especially on the Aframax size. And shortly after that we saw the same ships sold less than a month ago to be again for sale in an asset play attempt to flip them for a short profit.
We think that now is the time to buy. Compared to the dry bulk and container markets where the upcycle is mainly driven by demand, tankers on the other hand are mainly oil and products supply depended. As product tanker earnings seem to be taking the lead in the tankers recovery and hopefully soon the crude tankers will follow with late Q4 being the inflection point for an upward market reversal. The oil products destocking cycle is expected to come to an end during Q4, when winter restocking demand for middle distillates products will be at its peak, and refineries are expected to accelerate their runs to cover the energy deficit. Refineries are set to benefit from the increase in diesel and jet fuel prices a trend that should unfold through Q1 2022. The market seems well positioned for rising heating oil/ diesel consumption in the Atlantic, as well as jet fuel, and thus East to West middle distillates trade is expected to pick up. Naphtha trade is also expected to pick up in the short term, as naphtha has become cheaper than propane as a feedstock in the petrochemical industry benefiting the West/Med to East naphtha trade. Gasoline exports from Europe to the U.S. are also expected to rise on open arbitrage North West Europe- USAC on the forward curve and low inventories in the US. Gasoline flows from East of Suez into West Africa are expected to decline by the end of the year, as Asia is seeking to keep supplies to serve domestic demand, which is likely to lead to an increase in demand for European gasoline supplies from West Africa and US East Coast simultaneously.
Based on what we see and anticipate as stated above the increase of product prices and the need to refill the inventories will be key to the extent of the market recovery over the next year.
This could be a good timing to buy product carriers. We are starting to see increased SnP activity mainly for 12-14 year old MRs and 10 to 5 year old LR2s. Strange mix but this is where the majority of buyers are concentrating. MR1s are not yet of interest and on the LR1s buyers are reacting mostly to units less than 10 years old but there are not a lot for sale, at least not yet. Values have remained stable over the past two months but we do not expect them to stay put. It’s a small window to invest now where the market is still in favor of the buyers.
By Timos Papadimitriou,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 17 February 22
MAJOR INSTITUTIONS PROVIDED OVER $1.5 TRLN TO COAL SECTOR IN 2019-2021, SAYS NGO GROUP - REUTERS
Financial institutions channelled more than $1.5 trillion into the coal industry in loans and underwriting from January 2019 to November 2021, even ...
Thursday, 17 February 22
APAC THERMAL COAL PRICES TO EASE ON END OF INDONESIA EXPORT BAN - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings-Shanghai/Singapore-14 February 2022: APAC thermal coal prices are likely to come under pressure in the near term due to seasonally we ...
Tuesday, 15 February 22
IS ANOTHER COAL SHORTAGE CRISIS LOOMING OVER INDIA? - BUSINESS STANDARD
In December last year, the Federation of Indian Mineral Industries (FIMI) shot off a letter to the Prime Minister claiming that the coal crisis was ...
Tuesday, 15 February 22
THERMAL COAL'S RECORD PRICE RUN MAY END UP ITS OWN WORST ENEMY - REUTERS
The price of benchmark Australian thermal coal rose last week to trade near record highs, providing a short-term boost to producers but increasing ...
Thursday, 10 February 22
INDONESIA: COAL EXPORT BAN - SKULD
Indonesia's coal export ban in the light of force majeure and off-hire clauses
In January 2022, Indonesia, the world's biggest exporte ...
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- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Planning Commission, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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