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Wednesday, 03 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 November is here and soon the all time seasonal favorite “all I want or Christmas is you” by Mariah Carey will be played in radio stations around the world repeatedly. Now the shipping question is, “will the tanker segment get what it wants this Christmas”?
For gas, dry and container Christmas has arrived very early in 2021 with earnings reaching levels not seen for more than a decade putting an overdue smile on ship owners faces.
So has the time come eventually for the tankers as well? There have been a few false alarms this year. One in early 2021 and one just before the summer. The activity on the SnP was mainly for Aframax and VLCCs and was purely driven by speculation or otherwise put “counter-cyclical” investment behavior, while the actual freight market remained subdued. That resulted into tanker asset values increasing especially on the Aframax size. And shortly after that we saw the same ships sold less than a month ago to be again for sale in an asset play attempt to flip them for a short profit.
We think that now is the time to buy. Compared to the dry bulk and container markets where the upcycle is mainly driven by demand, tankers on the other hand are mainly oil and products supply depended. As product tanker earnings seem to be taking the lead in the tankers recovery and hopefully soon the crude tankers will follow with late Q4 being the inflection point for an upward market reversal. The oil products destocking cycle is expected to come to an end during Q4, when winter restocking demand for middle distillates products will be at its peak, and refineries are expected to accelerate their runs to cover the energy deficit. Refineries are set to benefit from the increase in diesel and jet fuel prices a trend that should unfold through Q1 2022. The market seems well positioned for rising heating oil/ diesel consumption in the Atlantic, as well as jet fuel, and thus East to West middle distillates trade is expected to pick up. Naphtha trade is also expected to pick up in the short term, as naphtha has become cheaper than propane as a feedstock in the petrochemical industry benefiting the West/Med to East naphtha trade. Gasoline exports from Europe to the U.S. are also expected to rise on open arbitrage North West Europe- USAC on the forward curve and low inventories in the US. Gasoline flows from East of Suez into West Africa are expected to decline by the end of the year, as Asia is seeking to keep supplies to serve domestic demand, which is likely to lead to an increase in demand for European gasoline supplies from West Africa and US East Coast simultaneously.
Based on what we see and anticipate as stated above the increase of product prices and the need to refill the inventories will be key to the extent of the market recovery over the next year.
This could be a good timing to buy product carriers. We are starting to see increased SnP activity mainly for 12-14 year old MRs and 10 to 5 year old LR2s. Strange mix but this is where the majority of buyers are concentrating. MR1s are not yet of interest and on the LR1s buyers are reacting mostly to units less than 10 years old but there are not a lot for sale, at least not yet. Values have remained stable over the past two months but we do not expect them to stay put. It’s a small window to invest now where the market is still in favor of the buyers.
By Timos Papadimitriou,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 04 February 22
RENEWABLES ON THE RISE, COAL CONTINUOUSLY FALLING - EUROPEAN COMMISSION
Although oil (34.5%) and natural gas (23.7%) were still the most important fuel sources in the EU energy mix in 2020, renewable energy’s shar ...
Thursday, 03 February 22
COAL SHORTAGE NOW AT ALARMING LEVELS, SAY ALUMINIUM PRODUCERS - IANS
With no relief in sight despite coal stocks running critically low and production disruptions looming across the Indian aluminium sector, the Alumi ...
Wednesday, 02 February 22
HIGH COKING COAL PRICES PROVIDE GLIMPSE INTO STEELMAKING'S FUTURE - MCKINSEY
Last year was a volatile one in global commodity markets. Demand for coking coal, an essential raw material in the production of steel, was extreme ...
Wednesday, 02 February 22
INDONESIA'S RESTRICTIONS ON COMMODITIES RATTLE MARKETS, MORE MOVES LIKELY - REUTERS
In just the first month of this year, Indonesian policymakers have rattled global markets with restrictions on some of its biggest commodities expo ...
Wednesday, 02 February 22
CHINA'S TOP COAL PRODUCER FORECASTS 28 PCT PROFIT GROWTH IN 2021 - XINHUA
China Shenhua Energy Company Limited, one of the country’s biggest coal producers, said its net profits are expected to jump by 28 percent in ...
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- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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