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Wednesday, 03 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 November is here and soon the all time seasonal favorite “all I want or Christmas is you” by Mariah Carey will be played in radio stations around the world repeatedly. Now the shipping question is, “will the tanker segment get what it wants this Christmas”?
For gas, dry and container Christmas has arrived very early in 2021 with earnings reaching levels not seen for more than a decade putting an overdue smile on ship owners faces.
So has the time come eventually for the tankers as well? There have been a few false alarms this year. One in early 2021 and one just before the summer. The activity on the SnP was mainly for Aframax and VLCCs and was purely driven by speculation or otherwise put “counter-cyclical” investment behavior, while the actual freight market remained subdued. That resulted into tanker asset values increasing especially on the Aframax size. And shortly after that we saw the same ships sold less than a month ago to be again for sale in an asset play attempt to flip them for a short profit.
We think that now is the time to buy. Compared to the dry bulk and container markets where the upcycle is mainly driven by demand, tankers on the other hand are mainly oil and products supply depended. As product tanker earnings seem to be taking the lead in the tankers recovery and hopefully soon the crude tankers will follow with late Q4 being the inflection point for an upward market reversal. The oil products destocking cycle is expected to come to an end during Q4, when winter restocking demand for middle distillates products will be at its peak, and refineries are expected to accelerate their runs to cover the energy deficit. Refineries are set to benefit from the increase in diesel and jet fuel prices a trend that should unfold through Q1 2022. The market seems well positioned for rising heating oil/ diesel consumption in the Atlantic, as well as jet fuel, and thus East to West middle distillates trade is expected to pick up. Naphtha trade is also expected to pick up in the short term, as naphtha has become cheaper than propane as a feedstock in the petrochemical industry benefiting the West/Med to East naphtha trade. Gasoline exports from Europe to the U.S. are also expected to rise on open arbitrage North West Europe- USAC on the forward curve and low inventories in the US. Gasoline flows from East of Suez into West Africa are expected to decline by the end of the year, as Asia is seeking to keep supplies to serve domestic demand, which is likely to lead to an increase in demand for European gasoline supplies from West Africa and US East Coast simultaneously.
Based on what we see and anticipate as stated above the increase of product prices and the need to refill the inventories will be key to the extent of the market recovery over the next year.
This could be a good timing to buy product carriers. We are starting to see increased SnP activity mainly for 12-14 year old MRs and 10 to 5 year old LR2s. Strange mix but this is where the majority of buyers are concentrating. MR1s are not yet of interest and on the LR1s buyers are reacting mostly to units less than 10 years old but there are not a lot for sale, at least not yet. Values have remained stable over the past two months but we do not expect them to stay put. It’s a small window to invest now where the market is still in favor of the buyers.
By Timos Papadimitriou,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 10 February 22
EIA ANALYSIS CONSIDERS DIFFERENT OUTCOMES FOR COAL MARKETS IN INDIA AND SOUTHEAST ASIA
In our International Energy Outlook 2021 (IEO2021) Issues in Focus: Uncertainty in Coal Trade in India and Greater Southeast Asia, we analyze three ...
Wednesday, 09 February 22
OIL PRICES: "IT'S GOING TO BE VERY EASY" TO GET TO $100/BARREL, ANALYST SAYS - YAHOO FINANCE
Energy and oil prices have been on fire over the last six months — and expect them to go higher, says one analyst.
“For ...
Wednesday, 09 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Iron ore prices have jumped significantly in the week prior to the Chinese New Year with traders and producers stocking up on raw materials. China& ...
Wednesday, 09 February 22
FEBRUARY HBA HITS RECORD HIGH IN 2022 ON INDONESIA’S EXPORT BAN IN JANUARY, WORSEN SUPPLY, UKRAINE TENSIONS
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for February in a steep climb from January 2022.
As expected in January the Indonesia ...
Wednesday, 09 February 22
CHINESE COAL MARKS BEST DAY IN 4 MONTHS ON TIGHT SUPPLY, HIGH DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s coal futures on Tuesday recorded their best session since Bejing’s mid-October intervention to cool runaway prices, aided by co ...
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The University of Queensland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
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